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Post by Clark on Sept 27, 2022 11:59:46 GMT
Strangely seats that swung away from the Tories at the last election in remain areas like Esher & Walton and Runnymede & Weybridge might become considerably safer next time in light of the mini budget being very wealthy areas. Not all wealthy people are 'against' paying tax. It's the wanabee wealthy who will like the budget. Of course, but I'm talking the general overall picture. Wealthy people in Hampstead & Highgate for example would probably a good example of the people you mention
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aargauer
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Post by aargauer on Sept 27, 2022 12:13:39 GMT
Strangely seats that swung away from the Tories at the last election in remain areas like Esher & Walton and Runnymede & Weybridge might become considerably safer again next time in light of the mini budget being very wealthy areas. I don't think so sadly. They are basically fed up with us. Even in those seats, the proportion earning over £150k won't be huge. They will however absolutely wallop the lib dems if they win then go into coalition with labour though.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 27, 2022 13:03:04 GMT
And that compares with what at the last election? I bet its still a pretty significant swing. Don't start measuring the curtains to No 10 just yet I can assure you that not a single person at Labour HQ is doing that.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 27, 2022 13:14:17 GMT
Don't start measuring the curtains to No 10 just yet I can assure you that not a single person at Labour HQ is doing that. There is a very careful place between confidence and complacency. It's hard to get this right.
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Merseymike
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Sept 27, 2022 13:18:09 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 27, 2022 13:18:09 GMT
When you get a poll like this, you have a bit of fun calculating constituency results. The seats where Labour would come close but not quite win, on the basis of UNS, are mostly fairly predictable - places like Bexleyheath & Crayford, Kettering & the like, where Labour won or came close in 1997. But one surprise was Central Devon. It's very hard to imagine Labour coming anywhere near winning that seat in a general election, but that's what the poll suggests could happen, especially if one tends to assume that Labour would enjoy somewhat higher swings in non-Labour-held seats (e.g., you cannot imagine any Liverpool seat swinging 14.25% to Labour). Also fun are some of the seats they don't win (in some cases not even close) - the likes of Cannock Chase, North Warwickshire, NW Leicestershire, Harlow, the Basildons, Redditch, Mansfield, the Dudleys etc. One assumes the swing would be much higher in seats like these to compensate for those like in Liverpool where there isn't the scope for swings of those scale and perhaps some of the Central Devon type seats which also seem unlikely to swing that far. I suppose it's down to 'types' of seats - in this case new towns and small-town Midlands seats with largely white populations which strongly voted Leave. New towns have a history of above average swings. The other seats might well be the decider as to whether Labour can win a majority or not.
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Post by batman on Sept 27, 2022 15:09:57 GMT
When you get a poll like this, you have a bit of fun calculating constituency results. The seats where Labour would come close but not quite win, on the basis of UNS, are mostly fairly predictable - places like Bexleyheath & Crayford, Kettering & the like, where Labour won or came close in 1997. But one surprise was Central Devon. It's very hard to imagine Labour coming anywhere near winning that seat in a general election, but that's what the poll suggests could happen, especially if one tends to assume that Labour would enjoy somewhat higher swings in non-Labour-held seats (e.g., you cannot imagine any Liverpool seat swinging 14.25% to Labour). Also fun are some of the seats they don't win (in some cases not even close) - the likes of Cannock Chase, North Warwickshire, NW Leicestershire, Harlow, the Basildons, Redditch, Mansfield, the Dudleys etc. One assumes the swing would be much higher in seats like these to compensate for those like in Liverpool where there isn't the scope for swings of those scale and perhaps some of the Central Devon type seats which also seem unlikely to swing that far. that's true although Dudley North would be close (not Dudley South though). In fact Dudley North would be the only seat won by Labour in 2017 but lost to the Tories in 2019 that Labour wouldn't regain on the basis of UNS.
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Sept 27, 2022 15:11:35 GMT
Post by batman on Sept 27, 2022 15:11:35 GMT
Strangely seats that swung away from the Tories at the last election in remain areas like Esher & Walton and Runnymede & Weybridge might become considerably safer again next time in light of the mini budget being very wealthy areas. I don't think so sadly. They are basically fed up with us. Even in those seats, the proportion earning over £150k won't be huge. They will however absolutely wallop the lib dems if they win then go into coalition with labour though. On the basis of most recent polling, such a coalition wouldn't be necessary. Although the arithmetic of course could well change.
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Post by willpower3 on Sept 27, 2022 15:50:26 GMT
When you get a poll like this, you have a bit of fun calculating constituency results. The seats where Labour would come close but not quite win, on the basis of UNS, are mostly fairly predictable - places like Bexleyheath & Crayford, Kettering & the like, where Labour won or came close in 1997. But one surprise was Central Devon. It's very hard to imagine Labour coming anywhere near winning that seat in a general election, but that's what the poll suggests could happen, especially if one tends to assume that Labour would enjoy somewhat higher swings in non-Labour-held seats (e.g., you cannot imagine any Liverpool seat swinging 14.25% to Labour). Also fun are some of the seats they don't win (in some cases not even close) - the likes of Cannock Chase, North Warwickshire, NW Leicestershire, Harlow, the Basildons, Redditch, Mansfield, the Dudleys etc. One assumes the swing would be much higher in seats like these to compensate for those like in Liverpool where there isn't the scope for swings of those scale and perhaps some of the Central Devon type seats which also seem unlikely to swing that far. I think Brent North holds the record for the highest swing between Labour and the Tories in a general election - 18.8% in an election where the national swing was 10%. Somewhere like Boston and Skegness might be a contender for the biggest swing at the next election. Labour could get a 30% swing and fall short.
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Post by michaelarden on Sept 27, 2022 17:06:40 GMT
I don't think so sadly. They are basically fed up with us. Even in those seats, the proportion earning over £150k won't be huge. They will however absolutely wallop the lib dems if they win then go into coalition with labour though. On the basis of most recent polling, such a coalition wouldn't be necessary. Although the arithmetic of course could well change. I am cautious about a Labour majority even on these poll numbers for two reasons.
They are nowhere near the pre 1997 ratings under Blair when Labour were polling into the 50%s - and ended up with 43/44%. There will almost certainly be some return to the norm as the election approaches.
Secondly coming from 200 seats to get a majority is logistically a nightmare - Cameron's Tories gained 110(?) seats in 2010 which wasn't enough and Labour in 1997 was coming from a base of 270. The state of on the ground campaigns in a party's 130th target seat is unlikely to be top notch which it needs to be to get the swing needed and the vote actually out.
It is entirley possible the Tories collapse into a pit of their own uselessness/greed/Tufton Street ideaology - but I find it difficult to believe the saner voices won't get a grip as the election approaches.
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Post by batman on Sept 27, 2022 17:19:23 GMT
I'm fairly cautious about an outright majority, too, as it wouldn't take a massive improvement for the Tories to get back into hung parliament territory. What I don't see as likely is the Tories recovering to the extent needed to be able to form another government after the next election.
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YouGov
Sept 27, 2022 21:19:44 GMT
Post by kevinf on Sept 27, 2022 21:19:44 GMT
When you get a poll like this, you have a bit of fun calculating constituency results. The seats where Labour would come close but not quite win, on the basis of UNS, are mostly fairly predictable - places like Bexleyheath & Crayford, Kettering & the like, where Labour won or came close in 1997. But one surprise was Central Devon. It's very hard to imagine Labour coming anywhere near winning that seat in a general election, but that's what the poll suggests could happen, especially if one tends to assume that Labour would enjoy somewhat higher swings in non-Labour-held seats (e.g., you cannot imagine any Liverpool seat swinging 14.25% to Labour). interestingly that’s been talked about a bit locally, I assume with boundary changes and, just a guess before I look it up, Exeter overspill? Very dynamic Labour Party in the current East Devon and despite the by-election, in Tiverton and Honiton
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Sept 27, 2022 21:26:46 GMT
Post by kevinf on Sept 27, 2022 21:26:46 GMT
You might expect even the Mail to cut their losses on the Tories soon, if things carry on as they are. But that maybe ignores how much of an utter lunatic Dacre is. Dan Hodges is being very critical of Kwarteng’s Friday statement, and very nice about our Conference (apparently our singing the National Anthem is the decisive factor at the next General Election). I genuinely have no idea why anyone employs him
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 27, 2022 21:32:20 GMT
Dan Hodges is being very critical of Kwarteng’s Friday statement, and very nice about our Conference (apparently our singing the National Anthem is the decisive factor at the next General Election). I genuinely have no idea why anyone employs him The toughest thing is he’s a fellow Liverpool fan!
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Post by mattbewilson on Sept 27, 2022 21:35:05 GMT
I think the caution around a maj is the right approach.
Scotland is a real problem. 270 seats in 1992 had fifty or so Scottish MPs. Without the Scottish MPs in 2015-2019 Labour were on between 202-262 rather than 240-300 odd had we not lost all those MPs in 15'. So we're in that way starting from base more difficult than the one Blair had
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Sept 27, 2022 21:43:04 GMT
When you get a poll like this, you have a bit of fun calculating constituency results. The seats where Labour would come close but not quite win, on the basis of UNS, are mostly fairly predictable - places like Bexleyheath & Crayford, Kettering & the like, where Labour won or came close in 1997. But one surprise was Central Devon. It's very hard to imagine Labour coming anywhere near winning that seat in a general election, but that's what the poll suggests could happen, especially if one tends to assume that Labour would enjoy somewhat higher swings in non-Labour-held seats (e.g., you cannot imagine any Liverpool seat swinging 14.25% to Labour). interestingly that’s been talked about a bit locally, I assume with boundary changes and, just a guess before I look it up, Exeter overspill? Very dynamic Labour Party in the current East Devon and despite the by-election, in Tiverton and Honiton The initial proposals for boundary changes for Devon Central lop off 1 or 2 rural villages on the edge of Dartmoor but are basically minimal. Where did the 25% Labour vote ( and 27% in 2019) come from here has been debated before here. There is likely a bit of Exeter influence- not overspill in development terms , but people who work in Exeter and live in surrounding villages. But I’ve said before for Labour to get 27%, they must have been very competitive in places like Chudleigh and Crediton. Devon Central has a similar majority to Plymouth Moor View- but I still think Devon Central is not one of the places that would fall in a Labour landslide
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Post by batman on Sept 27, 2022 22:43:27 GMT
logically, Plymouth Moor View is much likelier to fall, especially if Johnny Mercer quits. I don't see Labour winning Central Devon in a general election.
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maxque
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Sept 28, 2022 0:15:18 GMT
Post by maxque on Sept 28, 2022 0:15:18 GMT
If Labour is not winning those votes in places like Dudley, neither in places like Devon, where are they gaining? The idea of a party winning by 17 but failing to get a majority is ridiculous.
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Post by bjornhattan on Sept 28, 2022 0:34:12 GMT
logically, Plymouth Moor View is much likelier to fall, especially if Johnny Mercer quits. I don't see Labour winning Central Devon in a general election. A few months back I did some analysis based on census and election data. I found that Plymouth Moor View is one of the constituencies with the biggest difference between expected election result based on demographics (which suggest it should be marginal or even Labour leaning) and the actual 2019 election result. I don't know whether that's down to cultural factors, Mercer, or neither, but it does suggest Labour should be able to do a lot better there than they are now.
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Post by batman on Sept 28, 2022 8:16:13 GMT
If Labour is not winning those votes in places like Dudley, neither in places like Devon, where are they gaining? The idea of a party winning by 17 but failing to get a majority is ridiculous. I don't think anyone's suggesting that Labour would win by 17% and fail to achieve a majority. However it is possible for them to gain a double-digit lead & fall short, if the swing is uniform - if the swing is larger in Conservative-held seats, then it probably wouldn't be the case.
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nodealbrexiteer
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Sept 28, 2022 8:23:43 GMT
Post by nodealbrexiteer on Sept 28, 2022 8:23:43 GMT
If Labour is not winning those votes in places like Dudley, neither in places like Devon, where are they gaining? The idea of a party winning by 17 but failing to get a majority is ridiculous. I don't think anyone's suggesting that Labour would win by 17% and fail to achieve a majority. However it is possible for them to gain a double-digit lead & fall short, if the swing is uniform - if the swing is larger in Conservative-held seats, then it probably wouldn't be the case. academic.oup.com/view-large/207673497?login=falseThe current seats/votes relationship assuming UNS, of course will change on new boundaries but illustrates batman point
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