|
YouGov
Sept 26, 2022 21:59:50 GMT
Post by batman on Sept 26, 2022 21:59:50 GMT
Some are saying that after the financial events of the early part of this week it could grow bigger still. I wonder how long Tory MPs will be able to tolerate this. They're damned if they do & damned if they don't. I think if I were a Tory MP I might fairly soon conclude that while things would be dire changing the leader again things will get even more dire if there is no change, unless there is a major U-turn.
|
|
|
Post by Adam in Stroud on Sept 26, 2022 22:29:57 GMT
Some are saying that after the financial events of the early part of this week it could grow bigger still. I wonder how long Tory MPs will be able to tolerate this. They're damned if they do & damned if they don't. I think if I were a Tory MP I might fairly soon conclude that while things would be dire changing the leader again things will get even more dire if there is no change, unless there is a major U-turn. Much as I enjoy watching the Tory Party twist on the hook, I can't help feeling that it is monstrously unfair that they have to pay (some of) the price of their own folly, while the clowns at the Daily Mail who put out a front page saying "At last, a genuine Conservative budget" will remind entirely unaccountable. Maybe it will dawn on the Conservatives that a compliant press is a very useful asset, but letting these bullshitters and kite-fliers actually dictate policy is going to get found out eventually.
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Sept 26, 2022 22:42:08 GMT
Some are saying that after the financial events of the early part of this week it could grow bigger still. I wonder how long Tory MPs will be able to tolerate this. They're damned if they do & damned if they don't. I think if I were a Tory MP I might fairly soon conclude that while things would be dire changing the leader again things will get even more dire if there is no change, unless there is a major U-turn. Much as I enjoy watching the Tory Party twist on the hook, I can't help feeling that it is monstrously unfair that they have to pay (some of) the price of their own folly, while the clowns at the Daily Mail who put out a front page saying "At last, a genuine Conservative budget" will remind entirely unaccountable. Maybe it will dawn on the Conservatives that a compliant press is a very useful asset, but letting these bullshitters and kite-fliers actually dictate policy is going to get found out eventually.I think that is very unlikely.
|
|
|
YouGov
Sept 27, 2022 6:56:20 GMT
via mobile
batman likes this
Post by willpower3 on Sept 27, 2022 6:56:20 GMT
This government has a similar whiff about it to that of February 1979, 1995, 2008 etc. The whiff of death.
|
|
|
Post by afleitch on Sept 27, 2022 7:32:20 GMT
This government has a similar whiff about it to that of February 1979, 1995, 2008 etc. The whiff of death. Except those governments still had big hitters in the cabinet. Currently we're on the dregs.
|
|
|
Post by afleitch on Sept 27, 2022 7:41:10 GMT
Labour majority of 182 with Baxter on those numbers. And that's with the Greens on 7%.
|
|
|
Post by woollyliberal on Sept 27, 2022 7:42:56 GMT
Some are saying that after the financial events of the early part of this week it could grow bigger still. I wonder how long Tory MPs will be able to tolerate this. They're damned if they do & damned if they don't. I think if I were a Tory MP I might fairly soon conclude that while things would be dire changing the leader again things will get even more dire if there is no change, unless there is a major U-turn. Much as I enjoy watching the Tory Party twist on the hook, I can't help feeling that it is monstrously unfair that they have to pay (some of) the price of their own folly, while the clowns at the Daily Mail who put out a front page saying "At last, a genuine Conservative budget" will remind entirely unaccountable. Maybe it will dawn on the Conservatives that a compliant press is a very useful asset, but letting these bullshitters and kite-fliers actually dictate policy is going to get found out eventually. The likes of the Mail are bullies. They only have power over you because you let them. Sooner or later you have to stand up to them. In WWII (and before) It was common practice to use old newspaper as toilet paper, which gave rise to my favourite DM joke: Why can't you wipe your arse on the Daily Mail? Because it's already full of s***.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,400
|
YouGov
Sept 27, 2022 9:57:52 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Sept 27, 2022 9:57:52 GMT
You might expect even the Mail to cut their losses on the Tories soon, if things carry on as they are.
But that maybe ignores how much of an utter lunatic Dacre is.
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Sept 27, 2022 10:02:40 GMT
You might expect even the Mail to cut their losses on the Tories soon, if things carry on as they are. But that maybe ignores how much of an utter lunatic Dacre is. Dan Hodges is being very critical of Kwarteng’s Friday statement, and very nice about our Conference (apparently our singing the National Anthem is the decisive factor at the next General Election).
|
|
|
Post by afleitch on Sept 27, 2022 10:04:47 GMT
With YouGov, there's still a 16 point lead for the Tories amongst the over 65s.
|
|
wysall
Forum Regular
Posts: 321
|
Post by wysall on Sept 27, 2022 10:15:24 GMT
With YouGov, there's still a 16 point lead for the Tories amongst the over 65s. Subsamples are subsamples, but contrast that with under 20% support in the 25-49 group. Pensioners’ interests party. Plenty of discussion about ‘realignment’ towards education, but of course a large part of that is the age gap in education. Which looks a lot less like the media narrative and a lot more like ‘economically disadvantaged vote Labour; people who have the triple lock and a quarter of whom are millionaires vote Conservative’.
|
|
|
Post by Adam in Stroud on Sept 27, 2022 10:18:09 GMT
With YouGov, there's still a 16 point lead for the Tories amongst the over 65s. Not many of them paying mortgages, probably quite a few with savings that will benefit from higher interest and bond yields, not worried about their jobs.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,400
|
Post by The Bishop on Sept 27, 2022 10:27:49 GMT
With YouGov, there's still a 16 point lead for the Tories amongst the over 65s. And that compares with what at the last election? I bet its still a pretty significant swing.
|
|
|
Post by afleitch on Sept 27, 2022 10:31:38 GMT
With YouGov, there's still a 16 point lead for the Tories amongst the over 65s. And that compares with what at the last election? An insane 47 point lead in 2019. It's more in line with how the Tories performed in 2010.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,400
|
Post by The Bishop on Sept 27, 2022 10:33:44 GMT
And that compares with what at the last election? An insane 47 point lead in 2019. It's more in line with how the Tories performed in 2010. So a change of 31 points, compared to 29 points overall on the 2019 result. That's actually quite interesting.
|
|
|
Post by batman on Sept 27, 2022 11:03:16 GMT
When you get a poll like this, you have a bit of fun calculating constituency results. The seats where Labour would come close but not quite win, on the basis of UNS, are mostly fairly predictable - places like Bexleyheath & Crayford, Kettering & the like, where Labour won or came close in 1997. But one surprise was Central Devon. It's very hard to imagine Labour coming anywhere near winning that seat in a general election, but that's what the poll suggests could happen, especially if one tends to assume that Labour would enjoy somewhat higher swings in non-Labour-held seats (e.g., you cannot imagine any Liverpool seat swinging 14.25% to Labour).
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 27, 2022 11:35:00 GMT
When you get a poll like this, you have a bit of fun calculating constituency results. The seats where Labour would come close but not quite win, on the basis of UNS, are mostly fairly predictable - places like Bexleyheath & Crayford, Kettering & the like, where Labour won or came close in 1997. But one surprise was Central Devon. It's very hard to imagine Labour coming anywhere near winning that seat in a general election, but that's what the poll suggests could happen, especially if one tends to assume that Labour would enjoy somewhat higher swings in non-Labour-held seats (e.g., you cannot imagine any Liverpool seat swinging 14.25% to Labour). Also fun are some of the seats they don't win (in some cases not even close) - the likes of Cannock Chase, North Warwickshire, NW Leicestershire, Harlow, the Basildons, Redditch, Mansfield, the Dudleys etc. One assumes the swing would be much higher in seats like these to compensate for those like in Liverpool where there isn't the scope for swings of those scale and perhaps some of the Central Devon type seats which also seem unlikely to swing that far.
|
|
|
Post by Clark on Sept 27, 2022 11:52:28 GMT
Strangely seats that swung away from the Tories at the last election in remain areas like Esher & Walton and Runnymede & Weybridge might become considerably safer again next time in light of the mini budget being very wealthy areas.
|
|
nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,373
|
YouGov
Sept 27, 2022 11:56:30 GMT
Post by nodealbrexiteer on Sept 27, 2022 11:56:30 GMT
With YouGov, there's still a 16 point lead for the Tories amongst the over 65s. And that compares with what at the last election? I bet its still a pretty significant swing. Don't start measuring the curtains to No 10 just yet
|
|
r34t
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,117
|
Post by r34t on Sept 27, 2022 11:57:30 GMT
Strangely seats that swung away from the Tories at the last election in remain areas like Esher & Walton and Runnymede & Weybridge might become considerably safer next time in light of the mini budget being very wealthy areas. Not all wealthy people are 'against' paying tax. It's the wanabee wealthy who will like the budget.
|
|