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Post by finsobruce on Aug 18, 2022 21:33:25 GMT
This thread has taken a strange turn. My oh my I see Wot U Dun there.
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batman
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Post by batman on Aug 18, 2022 21:40:54 GMT
we better not continue this until it's time to say Merry Christmas
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on Aug 19, 2022 8:49:58 GMT
you can if you like Coz I luv U
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 19, 2022 20:15:41 GMT
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Aug 19, 2022 20:24:38 GMT
Prediction: There will be a significant reversion next week.
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Aug 19, 2022 21:07:45 GMT
Prediction: There will be a significant reversion next week. You think so? I think the "new Tory leader" bounce has been and gone - the public are watching the same hustings as the Tory members and then watching what is actually happening around them and wondering when planet reality may strike home.
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 19, 2022 21:27:34 GMT
Prediction: There will be a significant reversion next week. You think so? I think the "new Tory leader" bounce has been and gone - the public are watching the same hustings as the Tory members and then watching what is actually happening around them and wondering when planet reality may strike home. Maybe the bounce comes post 5th september. I still got a feeling of a mini rerun of 1992
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 19, 2022 21:45:30 GMT
You think so? I think the "new Tory leader" bounce has been and gone - the public are watching the same hustings as the Tory members and then watching what is actually happening around them and wondering when planet reality may strike home. Maybe the bounce comes post 5th september. I still got a feeling of a mini rerun of 1992 I suspect there are a couple of significant differences between now and ‘92: 1. Unlike Mrs Thatcher I get the impression that Johson retains support amongst those first time Tory voters who are less likely to be impressed by either Truss or Sunak and so any new leader bounce is going to be confined to traditional Tory voters in the heartlands who probably voted Tory in 2019 anyway if only to prevent a Corbyn victory; 2. Major was able to scrap an unpopular flagship policy, the “Poll Tax” and replace it with Council Tax which had a few years of tolerance if not popularity. What’s Truss (or Sunak) got? I don’t think cancelling the National Insurance increase is going to have quite the same popularity. 3. Major had some personal charm, which I don’t sense people feel Truss has; in ‘92 there was a sense of “well he’s new, he deserves a chance to prove himself” - I don’t think people are that generous of spirit today. 4. People forget the utter calamity of John Smith’s Shadow Budget in which he laid out Labour’s entire economic programme 18 months before the election, giving opponents both in the Conservative Party and their media allies months to discredit it. That’s not a mistake I see Starmer and Reeves repeating anytime soon.
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batman
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Post by batman on Aug 19, 2022 21:55:12 GMT
and 5. most people are much worse off than they were in 1992. I find it hard to see the Tories recovering to the extent they'd need to remain in power. Will they lose the next election by 15%? Probably not.
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Post by mattbewilson on Aug 19, 2022 23:04:54 GMT
The situation is very different. It's a different Tory Party. Thatcher was seen as cruel when the poll tax was rolled out whereas Boris is just seen as incompetent.
Tbf the conservatives were seen as incompetent in the 90s but only because of how toxic poll tax was. Whereas perceived incompetence is the cause of mismanagement not the result of it.
There no Paddy Ashdown on the centre left challenging Labour's hegemony of the anti Tory vote.
The Labour Party is different. In 1987 Labour had great results in Scotland and Wales. In England though they went backwards. Labour were in worse position in England than they are now. Holding less seats in England in 87 than they did in 2019.
The red wall is now full Tory MPs while cities and towns which elected Tories like Bristol, Brighton, Reading, Wirral, Bedford, Luton, Canterbury, London, etc. now have more Labour MPs
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 20, 2022 9:10:14 GMT
Prediction: There will be a significant reversion next week. Very plausible, but its not hard to think of something that might have given Labour a bit of a boost this week.
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 20, 2022 10:33:50 GMT
Maybe the bounce comes post 5th september. I still got a feeling of a mini rerun of 1992 I suspect there are a couple of significant differences between now and ‘92: 1. Unlike Mrs Thatcher I get the impression that Johson retains support amongst those first time Tory voters who are less likely to be impressed by either Truss or Sunak and so any new leader bounce is going to be confined to traditional Tory voters in the heartlands who probably voted Tory in 2019 anyway if only to prevent a Corbyn victory; 2. Major was able to scrap an unpopular flagship policy, the “Poll Tax” and replace it with Council Tax which had a few years of tolerance if not popularity. What’s Truss (or Sunak) got? I don’t think cancelling the National Insurance increase is going to have quite the same popularity. 3. Major had some personal charm, which I don’t sense people feel Truss has; in ‘92 there was a sense of “well he’s new, he deserves a chance to prove himself” - I don’t think people are that generous of spirit today. 4. People forget the utter calamity of John Smith’s Shadow Budget in which he laid out Labour’s entire economic programme 18 months before the election, giving opponents both in the Conservative Party and their media allies months to discredit it. That’s not a mistake I see Starmer and Reeves repeating anytime soon. Good points, I do hope you are right!
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 20, 2022 11:00:58 GMT
The situation is very different. It's a different Tory Party. Thatcher was seen as cruel when the poll tax was rolled out whereas Boris is just seen as incompetent. Tbf the conservatives were seen as incompetent in the 90s but only because of how toxic poll tax was. Whereas perceived incompetence is the cause of mismanagement not the result of it. There no Paddy Ashdown on the centre left challenging Labour's hegemony of the anti Tory vote. The Labour Party is different. In 1987 Labour had great results in Scotland and Wales. In England though they went backwards. Labour were in worse position in England than they are now. Holding less seats in England in 87 than they did in 2019. The red wall is now full Tory MPs while cities and towns which elected Tories like Bristol, Brighton, Reading, Wirral, Bedford, Luton, Canterbury, London, etc. now have more Labour MPs Not quite true - they went backwards *in London*, and failed to add to their meagre total in the rest of the South. But in other parts of England they gained in seats and votes, for a modest increase overall.
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Post by mattbewilson on Aug 20, 2022 12:07:16 GMT
The situation is very different. It's a different Tory Party. Thatcher was seen as cruel when the poll tax was rolled out whereas Boris is just seen as incompetent. Tbf the conservatives were seen as incompetent in the 90s but only because of how toxic poll tax was. Whereas perceived incompetence is the cause of mismanagement not the result of it. There no Paddy Ashdown on the centre left challenging Labour's hegemony of the anti Tory vote. The Labour Party is different. In 1987 Labour had great results in Scotland and Wales. In England though they went backwards. Labour were in worse position in England than they are now. Holding less seats in England in 87 than they did in 2019. The red wall is now full Tory MPs while cities and towns which elected Tories like Bristol, Brighton, Reading, Wirral, Bedford, Luton, Canterbury, London, etc. now have more Labour MPs Not quite true - they went backwards *in London*, and failed to add to their meagre total in the rest of the South. But in other parts of England they gained in seats and votes, for a modest increase overall. you are ofc right labour gained 7 seats in England totalling 155 seats. I still think the point stands though. The idea 2024 will be a rerun of 1992 just doesn't understand a situation where labour currently has 23 more seats in England and 49 less seats in Scotland than 1987
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 20, 2022 12:09:27 GMT
and 5. most people are much worse off than they were in 1992. I find it hard to see the Tories recovering to the extent they'd need to remain in power. Will they lose the next election by 15%? Probably not. There was a bad recession in 1991-92, but most of those who kept their jobs were still doing OK. Some way from the increasingly general insecurity around now.
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Post by mattbewilson on Aug 20, 2022 12:12:18 GMT
and 5. most people are much worse off than they were in 1992. I find it hard to see the Tories recovering to the extent they'd need to remain in power. Will they lose the next election by 15%? Probably not. There was a bad recession in 1991-92, but most of those who kept their jobs were still doing OK. Some way from the increasingly general insecurity around now. I keep being told we're in an applicants market. Has anyone seen the jobs on offer...
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 20, 2022 12:13:42 GMT
There was a bad recession in 1991-92, but most of those who kept their jobs were still doing OK. Some way from the increasingly general insecurity around now. I keep being told we're in an applicants market. Has anyone seen the jobs on offer... Five of my 12 regular carers will have left by September, I’m told no replacements have yet been employed.
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Aug 20, 2022 12:17:40 GMT
Post by yellowperil on Aug 20, 2022 12:17:40 GMT
I keep being told we're in an applicants market. Has anyone seen the jobs on offer... Five of my 12 regular carers will have left by September, I’m told no replacements have yet been employed. I'm not sure of the exact figures, but that sounds about right for what is happening here for Eileen- if anything, a bit worse here.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 20, 2022 12:28:14 GMT
Five of my 12 regular carers will have left by September, I’m told no replacements have yet been employed. I'm not sure of the exact figures, but that sounds about right for what is happening here for Eileen- if anything, a bit worse here. I’m not sure if I’m underestimating; one’s been on sick leave after surgery for six weeks, is due back next week, but a couple of colleagues have suggested they don’t think he’s going to be well enough, and another said three times during her call last night words to the effect of “if I’m still working for the company by Christmas”, but, to be honest, yesterday had been such a nightmare day I didn’t probe further, but it may be no coincidence that her closest work friend has just gone to work for one of the hospital discharge care companies. Oh and another, infrequent but long server, retires in October.
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Post by graham on Aug 20, 2022 12:47:07 GMT
The Tories are certainly not receiving the boost enjoyed by the party in November 1990 when the second round of the Leadership contest was under way. Before Major emerged as the winner the Tories were back in the lead under each potential successor to Thatcher.
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