Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,266
Member is Online
|
YouGov
May 30, 2020 13:38:45 GMT
Post by Sibboleth on May 30, 2020 13:38:45 GMT
I'm not sure if obsessing over poll internals and extrapolating wildly is a particularly good use of anyone's time. Stuck record, I know, but someone has to say it. You would not find the information that you want from YouGov's referendum breakdowns anyway: their final 'ordinary' poll for 2017 had the Labour figures at 48/22 and for 2019 at 48/16. Note that these two sets of figures are not (or not very) statistically different.
|
|
|
YouGov
May 30, 2020 13:48:59 GMT
Post by manchesterman on May 30, 2020 13:48:59 GMT
Sorry. Just wanted to clarify my stance and defend myself from the attacks made on me. I will desist now
Oh and by the way I actually work with Terry Christian's niece and even she thinks he's a nobhead!
|
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 39,121
Member is Online
|
YouGov
May 30, 2020 13:53:45 GMT
Post by Merseymike on May 30, 2020 13:53:45 GMT
I just has a look at the polls directly after the UK fell out of the ERM in September 92, often cited as the straw that broke the camel’s back of Major’s government, and the polls immediately after have a small shift, the Tories went from low 40s to high 30s. But the slide kept on going, and by November they were at low 30s from which they never recovered, so we still have to wait and see if this Cummings affair has had a similar effect. Labour's collapse in Scotland post-2014 referendum didn't all happen right away either. Very true. But it was centred on a particular issue. Essentally the Labour vote was split between unionists and independence advocates, and they have lost the Labour Yes voters to the SNP. Helped by the fact that there really isn;t a great deal of difference anyway. For all the Red Clydeside type image, Scottish Labour is old-school right wing Labourism, was the establishment, and for many supporting SNP feels like a shift to the left. I have three friends all of who switched from Labour to SNP, all in Edinburgh too, and they really don't look like switching back any time soon, because they sincerely want an independent Scotland. And at leat one said to me, once we have got that, then there probably won't be the need for the SNP as such, and Scotland will once again vote for Labour-type governments most of the time. I just don;t see COVID as having that sort of salience - again - because Labour's p[osition really isn;t fundamentally different from the Government. They can certainly focus on the Governments ineptitude, but not their broad direction. It may depend on whether by the time that becomes important, the public are as enthused about lockdown etc as by then, they will have a better idea of the broader consequences.
|
|
|
Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on May 30, 2020 14:09:31 GMT
Going into the next election if Labours position is that we respect the will of the British people in 2016 on Brexit; stating too short a time has passed to relook at the issue; and then concentrates on nhs, education, economy etc it will gain votes from across the political spectrum. If it goes explicitely remain it will lose the election. If it goes explicitely never rejoin it will lose the election.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
YouGov
May 30, 2020 14:33:47 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on May 30, 2020 14:33:47 GMT
Millons signed petitions for a second ref and revoking A50. Did it serve any puepose
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 30, 2020 14:36:44 GMT
i think it's a mistake to think we just need to win over the odds and sods. It'd be Milibands 35% strategy all over again Exactly. For Labour to even win the most seats there has to be a groundswell acknowledgement from - and I use the term again though some dont like it, floating voters (who actually decide elections!) that theyve been lied to and conned and taken for fools by this charlatan government. If that message dosent cut through, then I foresee no change other than a percentage point or 2 here and there and merely a reduction in the Johnson majority. i think the use of the term floating voter is redundant because those voters don't float any more and Labour's new target are the staunch Labour never vote tory voters that are no longer staunch Labour now voting tory voters. Also telling voters they've been had isn't a sure fire way to convince them to vote for you
|
|
|
YouGov
May 30, 2020 14:39:04 GMT
Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on May 30, 2020 14:39:04 GMT
Millons signed petitions for a second ref and revoking A50. Did it serve any puepose
No
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on May 30, 2020 14:50:50 GMT
I realise that the anti lockdown morons won’t understand, but if you don’t get how Johnson’s defence of Cummings has destroyed much of the work done to try, albeit too late, to contain this virus, then you can go on deluding yourself that it is trivial and unimportant. It isn’t, as the scientists, both on SAGE and independent of SAGE, police officers on the frontline, paramedics on the frontline, doctors on the frontline, and many more alongside, are already pointing out that the impact of the inevitable second wave has been increased substantially. If you can live with the additional deaths and long term health impacts, the social and economic disruption, that will accompany that second wave, fine, but those of us who actually give a shit aren’t fine with it. Yes, we can, far more than the long term impacts of lockdown and the economic consequences. But of course, they may not affect you as much, not that you would ever say anything that doesn't primarily suit your own interests.... What, pray tell, are my own interests? If you mean not dying of Covid 19 yes, my lungs are so fucked up already, I wouldn’t live long anyway, but being a coward I’d rather not suffer the three hour coughing fits, the hallucinations (had that before and it’s scary). But if you said to me I can have a quick, sudden death within 24 hours of your mum dying I’d bite your hand off. What I have now isn’t any kind of life, and only knowing the impact it would have on my mum has stopped me from simply swallowing as much of my medication as I can in one go, so don’t kid yourself there’s self interest in my view.
|
|
|
Post by curiousliberal on May 30, 2020 14:54:48 GMT
Yes, we can, far more than the long term impacts of lockdown and the economic consequences. But of course, they may not affect you as much, not that you would ever say anything that doesn't primarily suit your own interests.... What, pray tell, are my own interests? If you mean not dying of Covid 19 yes, my lungs are so fucked up already, I wouldn’t live long anyway, but being a coward I’d rather not suffer the three hour coughing fits, the hallucinations (had that before and it’s scary). But if you said to me I can have a quick, sudden death within 24 hours of your mum dying I’d bite your hand off. What I have now isn’t any kind of life, and only knowing the impact it would have on my mum has stopped me from simply swallowing as much of my medication as I can in one go, so don’t kid yourself there’s self interest in my view. It might not mean much, but your insights would be missed here.
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on May 30, 2020 14:55:37 GMT
What, pray tell, are my own interests? If you mean not dying of Covid 19 yes, my lungs are so fucked up already, I wouldn’t live long anyway, but being a coward I’d rather not suffer the three hour coughing fits, the hallucinations (had that before and it’s scary). But if you said to me I can have a quick, sudden death within 24 hours of your mum dying I’d bite your hand off. What I have now isn’t any kind of life, and only knowing the impact it would have on my mum has stopped me from simply swallowing as much of my medication as I can in one go, so don’t kid yourself there’s self interest in my view. It might not mean much, but your insights would be missed here. Thank you
|
|
Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,110
Member is Online
|
Post by Jack on May 30, 2020 14:58:05 GMT
Millons signed petitions for a second ref and revoking A50. Did it serve any puepose If signing petitions achieved anything, we wouldn't be allowed to do it.
|
|
obsie
Non-Aligned
Posts: 837
|
YouGov
May 30, 2020 15:03:28 GMT
Post by obsie on May 30, 2020 15:03:28 GMT
What, pray tell, are my own interests? If you mean not dying of Covid 19 yes, my lungs are so fucked up already, I wouldn’t live long anyway, but being a coward I’d rather not suffer the three hour coughing fits, the hallucinations (had that before and it’s scary). But if you said to me I can have a quick, sudden death within 24 hours of your mum dying I’d bite your hand off. What I have now isn’t any kind of life, and only knowing the impact it would have on my mum has stopped me from simply swallowing as much of my medication as I can in one go, so don’t kid yourself there’s self interest in my view. It might not mean much, but your insights would be missed here. Yes, and much more so than the Molotov-Ribbentrop sociopaths.
|
|
|
Post by Adam in Stroud on May 30, 2020 15:08:06 GMT
Exactly. For Labour to even win the most seats there has to be a groundswell acknowledgement from - and I use the term again though some dont like it, floating voters (who actually decide elections!) that theyve been lied to and conned and taken for fools by this charlatan government. If that message dosent cut through, then I foresee no change other than a percentage point or 2 here and there and merely a reduction in the Johnson majority. i think the use of the term floating voter is redundant because those voters don't float any more and Labour's new target are the staunch Labour never vote tory voters that are no longer staunch Labour now voting tory voters. Also telling voters they've been had isn't a sure fire way to convince them to vote for you Absolutely. Don't even think of talking about lies in the past. Start with your offer to them. After that, maybe ask them if they're happy with what they've had from the Tories.
|
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 39,121
Member is Online
|
YouGov
May 30, 2020 15:17:18 GMT
Post by Merseymike on May 30, 2020 15:17:18 GMT
Yes, we can, far more than the long term impacts of lockdown and the economic consequences. But of course, they may not affect you as much, not that you would ever say anything that doesn't primarily suit your own interests.... What, pray tell, are my own interests? If you mean not dying of Covid 19 yes, my lungs are so fucked up already, I wouldn’t live long anyway, but being a coward I’d rather not suffer the three hour coughing fits, the hallucinations (had that before and it’s scary). But if you said to me I can have a quick, sudden death within 24 hours of your mum dying I’d bite your hand off. What I have now isn’t any kind of life, and only knowing the impact it would have on my mum has stopped me from simply swallowing as much of my medication as I can in one go, so don’t kid yourself there’s self interest in my view. OK. Thanks for explaining. So why do you want to inflict the outcome of lockdown on other people? That's what I don't get about those who think, or seem to say, that 'saving lives' should be the only or even the primary consideration. Any attempt to say otherwise and to try and introduce a utilitarian outlook usually gets a pile of abuse - not from you, but your last post appeared to assume that those of us who sincerely think that the damage this is going to do to society, the economy and the greater good of the greater number, is not worth it given the numbers and profile of likely deaths, have not thought this through at all. We have, but we have reaached a different conclusion, and for me its one which reflects my longstanding views about risk and the folly of trying to pretend that absolute safety is a possibility in the contemporary world. We are not morons, or neo-nazis - we just think that another way forward would be preferable.
|
|
|
YouGov
May 30, 2020 15:22:37 GMT
Post by manchesterman on May 30, 2020 15:22:37 GMT
This has gone way off topic from talking about the poll, and that is partly my fault so apologies.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
YouGov
May 30, 2020 16:05:49 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on May 30, 2020 16:05:49 GMT
Starmer has actually opposed an extension which is reassuring
|
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 39,121
Member is Online
|
YouGov
May 30, 2020 16:11:48 GMT
Post by Merseymike on May 30, 2020 16:11:48 GMT
Starmer has actually opposed an extension which is reassuring Hmmmmm I'm really not sure. Perhaps I'm being too machiavellian here, but how about he has already decided that he wants Labour to be the rejoin party, and that the best bet is to let No Deal happen, which he thinks will be a disaster. So, we leave, no extension, thus no deal, and in his mind that means it will be a disaster and will place Labour in a better place to be a rejoin party next time as the electorate will want to rejoin.... If this isn't the case, then Labour needs to get on with some creative thinking for a Britain outside the EU, because so far its been entirely absent
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
YouGov
May 30, 2020 16:14:39 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on May 30, 2020 16:14:39 GMT
Starmer has actually opposed an extension which is reassuring Hmmmmm I'm really not sure. Perhaps I'm being too machiavellian here, but how about he has already decided that he wants Labour to be the rejoin party, and that the best bet is to let No Deal happen, which he thinks will be a disaster. So, we leave, no extension, thus no deal, and in his mind that means it will be a disaster and will place Labour in a better place to be a rejoin party next time as the electorate will want to rejoin.... If this isn't the case, then Labour needs to get on with some creative thinking for a Britain outside the EU, because so far its been entirely absent Perhaps so but we'll come to that bridge when we cross it
|
|
|
Post by gwynthegriff on May 30, 2020 16:18:45 GMT
This has gone way off topic from talking about the poll, and that is partly my fault so apologies. Please don't set a precedent for being expected to apologise for taking threads off-topic. We'd never finish!
|
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 39,121
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on May 30, 2020 16:20:53 GMT
Hmmmmm I'm really not sure. Perhaps I'm being too machiavellian here, but how about he has already decided that he wants Labour to be the rejoin party, and that the best bet is to let No Deal happen, which he thinks will be a disaster. So, we leave, no extension, thus no deal, and in his mind that means it will be a disaster and will place Labour in a better place to be a rejoin party next time as the electorate will want to rejoin.... If this isn't the case, then Labour needs to get on with some creative thinking for a Britain outside the EU, because so far its been entirely absent Perhaps so but we'll come to that bridge when we cross it This has been the problem, though. It should have started a couple of years ago, but because so many within the party wanted to engineer staying in, it didn't. Isn't it high time that it accepts that we really have left the EU and starts to talk about this in ways that don't suggest impending doom? And accepts that people didn;t vote to leave because they are stupid, racist, or whatever else - I'm sure some who voted leave might well be, but ultimately they voted leave because they no longer wanted to be part of the EU and if Labour had done what Jeremy wanted them to do - back signing article 50 without delay and then reach out for a cross party solution, then the country would have left the EU a couple of years before the election
|
|