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YouGov
Mar 8, 2024 10:15:02 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on Mar 8, 2024 10:15:02 GMT
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 8, 2024 12:20:19 GMT
No much sign of any lift at all from the budget in these polls, is there?
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YouGov
Mar 8, 2024 12:25:24 GMT
Post by borisminor on Mar 8, 2024 12:25:24 GMT
No much sign of any lift at all from the budget in these polls, is there? None at all - although I am taking some comfort from the fact that there isn't a Truss style/Autumn 2022 equivalent Labour increase. That said this has to have been one of the most lukewarm budget receptions I have seen. Even the Kwarteng 'mini' budget was praised to the rafters in the days following until it all unravelled.
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Mar 8, 2024 12:32:43 GMT
By all means take comfort if you wish to do so, it would not be for me to wish you discomfort; but the only comfort that I would be able to take if I were a Conservative would be that Labour's scope to enact progressive legislation & increase spending where it desperately needs such an increase has been further limited by the budget. Hunt probably knows that electorally the game is up & has deliberately used the budget to inconvenience an incoming Labour government as much as he can. I don't recall any Chancellor either Labour or Conservative acting in this way before. In electoral terms, I don't see what comfort there is to be had. The Labour lead is every bit as high as it was a year ago, in fact it's actually gone up several points & time is ticking rapidly away. We will enjoy our victory if that is our destiny, but the task we will have as a party of government, if so, will be a very sobering one.
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Post by andrewp on Mar 14, 2024 11:59:24 GMT
LAB: 44% (-3) CON: 20% (-) REF: 14% (+1) LDEM: 9% (-) GRN: 7% (-)
via @yougov, 12 - 13 Mar
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Mar 14, 2024 12:02:37 GMT
You’re making great progress Rishi CALL THE ELECTION
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 14, 2024 12:24:04 GMT
No much sign of any lift at all from the budget in these polls, is there? None at all - although I am taking some comfort from the fact that there isn't a Truss style/Autumn 2022 equivalent Labour increase. That said this has to have been one of the most lukewarm budget receptions I have seen. Even the Kwarteng 'mini' budget was praised to the rafters in the days following until it all unravelled. By the Tory client media, yes. Lots of others pointed out how it was a potential disaster from the start.
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Post by hullenedge on Mar 21, 2024 7:26:21 GMT
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Post by afleitch on Mar 21, 2024 9:00:11 GMT
Labour's raw lead over the Tories is nearly ten points higher than the Tories lead over the SNP...in all of Great Britain.
Proportionately (if we measure that way) it's the same as the gap between the Tories and the Greens.
The move to Reform is clearly the Tories aging core telling them that time's up.
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Post by woollyliberal on Mar 21, 2024 9:51:07 GMT
A few weeks ago, I'd have poo pooed the idea of crossover. But the Tories continue to drop and Reform continue to rise. It would only take another 2 points in some polls for them to meet in the middle.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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YouGov
Mar 21, 2024 10:10:46 GMT
Post by YL on Mar 21, 2024 10:10:46 GMT
A few weeks ago, I'd have poo pooed the idea of crossover. But the Tories continue to drop and Reform continue to rise. It would only take another 2 points in some polls for them to meet in the middle. I wonder whether People Polling have been in the field recently?
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YouGov
Mar 21, 2024 10:34:05 GMT
Post by gibbon on Mar 21, 2024 10:34:05 GMT
When Reform overtake the Conservatives what happens then? Will Graham Brady, as one of his last acts before retirement, tell us either during the recess or on their return that there will be a vote of confidence in Sunak to take place just before the local elections?
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polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
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Post by polupolu on Mar 21, 2024 10:39:42 GMT
Plugging these numbers into Electoral calculus (https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html) gives Con 36 Lab 524 LD 49 Ref 0 Grn 2 SNP 18 PC 3 Labour majority 398
Will not happen of course, but if it did it would make the Portillo moment seem like a tiny thing in comparison
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Post by gibbon on Mar 21, 2024 16:22:00 GMT
Liberal Democrats as the official opposition? How would that work out?
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Post by greenrichard on Mar 21, 2024 16:30:56 GMT
Liberal Democrats as the official opposition? How would that work out? Probably as well as their time in Govt.
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Post by greenrichard on Mar 21, 2024 16:34:13 GMT
Plugging these numbers into Electoral calculus (https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html) gives Con 36 Lab 524 LD 49 Ref 0 Grn 2 SNP 18 PC 3 Labour majority 398
Will not happen of course, but if it did it would make the Portillo moment seem like a tiny thing in comparison
If the Lib Dems get more MPs than Tories with less than 50% of the Tory vote and Reform UK get 0 MPs with a much high % than Lib Dems, the clamour for voting reform becomes unstoppable- especially if Labour abuse their majority.
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polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
Posts: 1,166
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YouGov
Mar 21, 2024 19:45:13 GMT
Post by polupolu on Mar 21, 2024 19:45:13 GMT
Indeed. It would be absurd for the LDs to be the official opposition despite being only 4th in the popular vote.
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stodge
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Post by stodge on Mar 21, 2024 19:51:37 GMT
Indeed. It would be absurd for the LDs to be the official opposition despite being only 4th in the popular vote. Absurd but entirely reasonable - that's how FPTP works and those Conservatives who continue to support it would have to take the rough with the jagged. No one suggested that if the Alliance had polled more votes than Labour in 1983 they would be the official opposition because the General Election is not about votes in boxes but bums on benches (if you like). As we saw in 2015, UKIP got 12.5% and won one seat - it's no surprise Farage is also a fan of electoral reform. Eventually the absurdities, inequities and stupidities of FPTP would be so obvious as to render the whole system indefensible and perhaps 2024 will be the year that happens. It already happens in local Government where one party dominance is tolerated and accepted. It's time all votes weren't just counted but actually counted.
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YouGov
Mar 22, 2024 23:57:40 GMT
Post by greenchristian on Mar 22, 2024 23:57:40 GMT
Plugging these numbers into Electoral calculus (https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html) gives Con 36 Lab 524 LD 49 Ref 0 Grn 2 SNP 18 PC 3 Labour majority 398
Will not happen of course, but if it did it would make the Portillo moment seem like a tiny thing in comparison
If the Lib Dems get more MPs than Tories with less than 50% of the Tory vote and Reform UK get 0 MPs with a much high % than Lib Dems, the clamour for voting reform becomes unstoppable- especially if Labour abuse their majority. The clamour becomes louder, but not unstoppable. We already have two extremely blatant examples of FPTP producing ridiculous outcomes in recent history (1983 and 2015), and neither election had the result of moving us measurably closer to PR.
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YouGov
Mar 23, 2024 0:09:01 GMT
Post by No Offence Alan on Mar 23, 2024 0:09:01 GMT
If the Lib Dems get more MPs than Tories with less than 50% of the Tory vote and Reform UK get 0 MPs with a much high % than Lib Dems, the clamour for voting reform becomes unstoppable- especially if Labour abuse their majority. The clamour becomes louder, but not unstoppable. We already have two extremely blatant examples of FPTP producing ridiculous outcomes in recent history (1983 and 2015), and neither election had the result of moving us measurably closer to PR. Also 2005, Lab majority on 35% of the vote and Con beating Lab on the popular vote in England but getting 91 fewer MPs. And 1987, 6.25m Alliance votes in England = 10 MPs. 1.25m Lab votes in Scotland = 50 MPs.
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