sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979
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Post by sirbenjamin on Aug 19, 2018 19:34:47 GMT
Would Mark Oaten and the LDs have challenged the result?
If so, would Malone have stormed to a 20k+ majority in the resulting by election? (If not, are there conspiratorial double-standards in play?)
Would Oaten's subsequent blushes have been spared in all manner of ways?
Would a LD surge have come later, or not at all, or perhaps be happening now?
Would bright, chunky jumpers have become a must-have fashion accessory?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 19, 2018 19:44:40 GMT
Would Mark Oaten and the LDs have challenged the result? If so, would Malone have stormed to a 20k+ majority in the resulting by election? (If not, are there conspiratorial double-standards in play?)
Would Oaten's subsequent blushes have been spared in all manner of ways? Would a LD surge have come later, or not at all, or perhaps be happening now? Would bright, chunky jumpers have become a must-have fashion accessory?
This is quite a plausible 'what-if', as if all the ballot papers included in the count in Winchester in 1997 were actually genuine and the polling station staff had given them the official mark, Gerry Malone would have won by two. In those circumstances there wouldn't have been any chance of an election petition over failure to stamp, so the result would have held. What would probably then have happened is that the Lib Dems would have gained the seat in 2001, held it in 2005, and lost it to the Conservatives in 2010. Mark Oaten would probably have been the MP but a much less prominent politician, and Gerry Malone would have a slightly better reputation. So other than saving two men from being laughed at, not much difference.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Aug 19, 2018 19:53:53 GMT
Note that the LDs did not challenge the 2-vote margin in NE Fife in 2017.
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Post by tonyhill on Aug 20, 2018 5:25:25 GMT
I was involved with this, and with the County Council election a few years earlier where our candidate won by fewer votes than the number rejected for want of an official mark, and the Tories mounted a legal challenge and lost the subsequent by-election by a wide margin. We would not have challenged the 1997 result, unless Cowley Street had insisted and put up the money for the legal challenge. Gerry Malone would have won the by election, but not with a 20k majority. I believe that had Mark Oaten stood in 2010 he would have won, narrowly, despite what had happened in his private life.
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Post by timrollpickering on Aug 20, 2018 8:13:36 GMT
Note that the LDs did not challenge the 2-vote margin in NE Fife in 2017. Yes though by then there was a lot to suggest that the public would regard a challenge as sour grapes, in part because of the Winchester result. Also procedures have been tightened after three close result petitions in the previous twenty years. If Oaten hadn't got in to Parliament in 1997, he might well not have been a contender for the leadership in 2006. This would have saved the political class from discovering the meaning of coprophilia (and I would have avoided an awkward encounter in a subsequent by-election), possibly delayed the discovery of the Curse of Lembit but might it have meant another candidate stood and altered the dynamics?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 20, 2018 8:23:54 GMT
Note that the LDs did not challenge the 2-vote margin in NE Fife in 2017. Yes though by then there was a lot to suggest that the public would regard a challenge as sour grapes, in part because of the Winchester result. Also procedures have been tightened after three close result petitions in the previous twenty years. The main change is that the official mark is now printed on ballot papers, so there's no danger of polling station staff accidentally failing to stamp them and therefore no small pile of ballots rejected for want of official mark. (There are a tiny number rejected for this reason, where the voter has torn the corner of paper containing the official mark off or it has somehow detached from the rest of the ballot)
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Aug 20, 2018 8:46:35 GMT
In his book 'Screwing Up' Oaten stated that he promised his wife in the run up to 1997 that if he didn't win that would be his last run. This would have saved the political class from discovering the meaning of coprophilia (and I would have avoided an awkward encounter in a subsequent by-election)...
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Aug 20, 2018 9:45:35 GMT
Let's note that a certain Richard Huggett received 640 votes.
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 20, 2018 9:46:36 GMT
Let's note that a certain Richard Huggett received 640 votes. ITMA
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Post by timrollpickering on Aug 20, 2018 14:04:47 GMT
This would have saved the political class from discovering the meaning of coprophilia (and I would have avoided an awkward encounter in a subsequent by-election)... I was leafleting in the Ealing Southall by-election and came to a house with letterbox at the bottom of the door. I bent over and was putting it in when I heard a noise. I looked round and saw Mark Oaten coming up behind me. Fortunately I didn't sh it myself.
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Post by timrollpickering on Aug 20, 2018 14:07:11 GMT
Let's note that a certain Richard Huggett received 640 votes. Yes it's one of those elections where problems with the ballot paper problems delivered things one way and procedure problems delivered it the other. Might perhaps the Huggett vote have convinced a lot of people that the Liberal Democrats was the rightful winner of the poll regardless of how the papers were stamped?
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Post by tonyhill on Aug 20, 2018 18:35:56 GMT
That certainly played part. I know it is frowned upon here to make sweeping generalisations about "the British people", but I do believe that there is a widely shared feeling in this country about fair play, and what Huggett and then the Tories did was perceived as being unfair (plus people were very pleased in 1997 to be rid of the Tories). This is also why I oppose a second referendum on Brexit: I believe that the British sense of fair play would ensure that Leave would win again.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Aug 21, 2018 16:54:21 GMT
He would’ve lost in 2001.
Nearby Eastleigh and Romsey were of course LD in 2001 and I think they would’ve taken such a marginal seat.
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