neilm
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Post by neilm on Aug 8, 2018 15:05:12 GMT
On the contrary, it only shows your total lack of appreciation of the Farage/UKIP tactics altogether. It was all about stunts and capturing the media attention towards the SOLE objective of an actual Brexit. So, maximising the coverage, getting in front of cameras and the highest possible countrywide vote was the SOLE object. Gaining seats was useful in high profile by-elections but of no consequence at all at a GE. The traction of UKIP was the psychological suasion on Cameron/Conservatives through force of vote size and loss of votes in their marginals. I never fail to be astonished by people like you thinking that nut and bolt politics on the ground mattered? Of course it didn't. This was the Farage Show leading if possible to Brexit. Having MPs was totally irrelevant. Good job you had nothing to do with our campaign.
I appreciate that any other day but on polling day? And if the crash hadn't happened, would anybody have reported him flying a plane over Buckinghamshire?
There isn't really a tremendous amount to do as a candidate on polling day. |
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Post by catking on Aug 8, 2018 15:33:08 GMT
I appreciate that any other day but on polling day? And if the crash hadn't happened, would anybody have reported him flying a plane over Buckinghamshire?
There isn't really a tremendous amount to do as a candidate on polling day. In the closest elections, candidates doing GOTV can make a difference. Firstly, it makes everyone else much more likely to work harder on GOTV and secondly, they are likely to be more persuasive at getting people to go out and vote. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Aug 8, 2018 15:35:27 GMT
There isn't really a tremendous amount to do as a candidate on polling day. In the closest elections, candidates doing GOTV can make a difference. Firstly, it makes everyone else much more likely to work harder on GOTV and secondly, they are likely to be more persuasive at getting people to go out and vote. And this wasn't likely to be close so no need for Farage to go out and about. What's your experience on polling day? |
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Post by greenchristian on Aug 8, 2018 15:35:29 GMT
UKIP circa 2010 was going nowhere under Farage. Their fortunes only really changed when they turned up their anti-immigrant/muslim rhetoric and since there are plenty of UKIPPERs who share these views, I don't see much change in their electoral fortunes. However, Nige became a darling of the BBC and had that 'bloke in the pub' vibe, so it's fair to say his personality alone attracted people. They may have had a few less MEP's and Carswell and Reckless might have been less reckless in deciding to abandon the Tories, but I would still imagine they have more votes then the Lib Dems in 2015. A referendum would have still happened. But without Farage as a media darling would that anti-immigrant/muslim message have even been heard? In the media UKIP and Farage were one and the same. Remember that Farage secured substantially more media coverage for UKIP than would be expected given their electoral record. It's entirely possible that without Farage the UKIP surge never happens - especially if the replacement leader (and I don't recall there being an obvious frontrunner at that point) decides not to go down the anti-immigration route. If it does happen, it's likely to be on a smaller scale. |
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Post by catking on Aug 8, 2018 15:46:00 GMT
In the closest elections, candidates doing GOTV can make a difference. Firstly, it makes everyone else much more likely to work harder on GOTV and secondly, they are likely to be more persuasive at getting people to go out and vote. And this wasn't likely to be close so no need for Farage to go out and about. What's your experience on polling day? We say that now but some people at the time did think Farage's attemtp to win Buckingham was credible and might be close. It was certainly a big surprise that Farage finished a poor third.
I've been involved in polling days where it has been extremely close (mostly in local council elections admittedly) and GOTV efforts on the day have made all the difference.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Aug 8, 2018 15:50:42 GMT
And this wasn't likely to be close so no need for Farage to go out and about. What's your experience on polling day? We say that now but some people at the time did think Farage's attemtp to win Buckingham was credible and might be close. It was certainly a big surprise that Farage finished a poor third.
I've been involved in polling days where it has been extremely close (mostly in local council elections admittedly) and GOTV efforts on the day have made all the difference.
It wasn't at all, was it? I suppose I know people there so probably knew better than to put money on it. I don't think you can compare the two, at least in my experience. |
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on Aug 8, 2018 16:42:21 GMT
it might be instructive to consider who the next (few) UKIP leader(s) would have been, and how they would have performed especially comparedwith Farages omnipresence on the media
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Aug 8, 2018 17:03:55 GMT
it might be instructive to consider who the next (few) UKIP leader(s) would have been, and how they would have performed especially comparedwith Farages omnipresence on the media That's what I find most interesting. Would red UKIP under Nuttall or someone similar have taken the reigns? That would have had a massive impact on the pressure on the Tories |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2018 19:54:18 GMT
it might be instructive to consider who the next (few) UKIP leader(s) would have been, and how they would have performed especially comparedwith Farages omnipresence on the media That's what I find most interesting. Would red UKIP under Nuttall or someone similar have taken the reigns? That would have had a massive impact on the pressure on the Tories Conversely it could be Labour that would’ve pledged a referendum if UKIP under Nuttall had won Heywood & Middleton. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Aug 8, 2018 20:52:46 GMT
However, Farage should’ve stood in South Thanet rather than standing in Bromley and Buckingham just to stay relevant like some Lord Sutch type figure. Bromley was a by-election in the borough Farage lives in and it made sense for Ukip to field one of their best media performers at a time when they needed to rebuild their profile post Kilroy. But yes, Farage has never hung around a seat long enough to put down the routes. My recollection is that he went after Buckingham in the belief that Bercow's unpopularity amongst Conservative MPs and activists was shared by Conservative voters in Buckingham. He learned the hard way it isn't. Had Farage died in the plane crash and had it been formally reported to the Returning Officer before 22:00 (I'm sure someone here will know the detail of what specifically the RO needs to be told before the close of polls) then the countermanded poll would have meant John Bercow would not have been an MP when Parliament first met. There are all manner of proposals kicking around that would allow a non-MP to be elected Speaker, but IIUC none of them could be implemented without the Commons first electing a Speaker from amongst their members. Picking a stop-gap pending the return of Bercow might have made the delayed poll in Buckingham a little awkward. A minor point is that had Bercow eventually pitched up and an interim Speaker resigned then the election would have technically been for a vacancy rather than an incumbent (and I doubt changes to the standing orders would have been anyone's priority in the interim weeks) and so Bercow would have faced a secret ballot rather than an open vote for an incumbent and there might have been more opposition expressed. It may well have led to a successful change to a secret ballot for re-electing incumbents - it's a little hard to defend on principle, though the motivation and method behind the attempt in 2015 is something else - with knock-on consequences for the Speakership. UKIP circa 2010 was going nowhere under Farage. Ukip wasn't led by Farage at the time. The leader of the populist uprising at the 2010 election was Lord Pearson of Rannoch. Farage is, of course, not the only star media performer in the history of Ukip ( though I doubt they want to be reminded of the other big one). In fact given the disfunctionality of Ukip, might a Farageless party have actually proved more attractive for either another big name celebrity to give it a new boost or even for a competent person to take it over and get its house in order? |
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Izzyeviel
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Post by Izzyeviel on Aug 8, 2018 21:15:17 GMT
UKIP circa 2010 was going nowhere under Farage. Their fortunes only really changed when they turned up their anti-immigrant/muslim rhetoric and since there are plenty of UKIPPERs who share these views, I don't see much change in their electoral fortunes. However, Nige became a darling of the BBC and had that 'bloke in the pub' vibe, so it's fair to say his personality alone attracted people. They may have had a few less MEP's and Carswell and Reckless might have been less reckless in deciding to abandon the Tories, but I would still imagine they have more votes then the Lib Dems in 2015. A referendum would have still happened. But without Farage as a media darling would that anti-immigrant/muslim message have even been heard? In the media UKIP and Farage were one and the same. Remember that Farage secured substantially more media coverage for UKIP than would be expected given their electoral record. It's entirely possible that without Farage the UKIP surge never happens - especially if the replacement leader (and I don't recall there being an obvious frontrunner at that point) decides not to go down the anti-immigration route. If it does happen, it's likely to be on a smaller scale. The BNP had been enjoying success with that message, only a matter of time before someone put a more respectable face to it. The BNP had outpolled UKIP in many places in 2010. Anti-muslim/immigrant parties had been gaining ground elsewhere in europe, someone else in UKIP would've popped up and used the same strategy. Maybe there wouldn't have been a surge without Nige, but certainly UKIP would've picked up support regardless, especially considering the implosion of the BNP. |
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