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Post by johnloony on Aug 3, 2018 12:50:25 GMT
It’ll be a rounding thing: when you round percentages to a sensible number of significant figures you sometimes get them adding up to 99.9% or 100.1% or something that doesn’t add up to 100. It’s more accurate to just leave them like that rather than try to “fix” them to add up to 100 since then your numbers are much less accurate. That’s very close to being a perfect example: if the winning candidate got slightly less then rounding that result to the nearest whole number would have been 33/33/33 which adds up to only 99% yet that’s entirely the correct thing to do. You don't even need to make the winning number "slightly less". If you round the percentages to the nearest whole number, you get 33/33/33 which adds up to 99%. If you want the total to add up to 100.00% then you have to go to 2 decimal places, which is 33.46 / 33.36 / 33.18. The total remains 100% if you use 3, 4 or 5 d.p. but if you use 6 decimal places then it becomes 33.459895 and 33.364973 and 33.175130, which adds up to 99.999998. But that might be because my calculator is itself rounding down the final digit of each one. |
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Post by johnloony on Aug 3, 2018 12:54:37 GMT
The results in Inverness, Nairn & Lochaber in 1992 and Belfast South in 2015 are quite something. The seats were won on less than 27% of the vote. The difference there is that the top four candidates in INL were all very close together (3.4% apart) whereas in Belfast South there were substantial votes for several other candidates. In which case the thread is drifting away from the closest results to the smallest winning share results (cough Papua New Guinea). |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 3, 2018 15:20:10 GMT
Part of me still sort of wishes I'd voted LibDem last year and made the margin of victory in Fife North East one vote instead of two. Admittedly, I did actually consider it. There was a post on the Lib Dem reddit group shortly after the election, from a party supporter who said that he had cast a proxy vote for a friend in that seat, and that (IIRC) his friend was a unionist who wanted to vote for the SNP 'to keep the Conservatives out'. Allegedly (the story didn't seem particularly non-genuine, but it is a little out there!), said person held true to his friend's word and cast their vote for the SNP (rather than casting an extra Lib Dem vote). Also - considering that the margin would change by one vote rather than two, and you considered voting Lib Dem - does that mean you're a Scottish Green that's a unionist? |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 3, 2018 15:29:17 GMT
I think I have a potential winner for the closest top three - South Kintyre, Argyll and Bute in 2017; the Conservative, Liberal Democrat and SNP candidate all got the exact same number of votes.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Aug 3, 2018 16:33:16 GMT
I think I have a potential winner for the closest top three - South Kintyre, Argyll and Bute in 2017; the Conservative, Liberal Democrat and SNP candidate all got the exact same number of votes. That has been achieved many times, though usually with 3 candidates from the same party. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 3, 2018 17:30:36 GMT
I think I have a potential winner for the closest top three - South Kintyre, Argyll and Bute in 2017; the Conservative, Liberal Democrat and SNP candidate all got the exact same number of votes. That has been achieved many times, though usually with 3 candidates from the same party. The margin between candidates on the same slate could be considered not to be a margin of victory though, which is what the title speaks of. Of course, I am purely splitting hairs here. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Aug 3, 2018 18:21:13 GMT
This one may have some same party candidates in the mix but it's multi-member FPTP and has come up on other threads so here's a very tight three-way contest for the last seat with just four votes in it (seven for a four way contest for the last two seats):
Upton, Newham 1968
B.G. McCarthy Liberal 837
F.P. Penfold Liberal 767
E.S.C. Kebbell Labour 764
G.S. Figg Labour 763
E. Wren Liberal 760
S.H. Smith Labour 718
J.D. Inglis Conservative 710
W.L. Orrin Conservative 676
C.W. Balcomb Conservative 675
This was Labour's only gain in a contested election in London in 1968 (in an unopposed election they retained a by-election gain from a Residents' Association and picked up the other seat in Millwall, Tower Hamlets) and proved critical in delivering a hung council (30 Labor : 30 mix of Ratepayers, Conservatives and Liberals) with the Aldermen supplying a majority.
Typed in the old Upton.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 3, 2018 18:21:40 GMT
Part of me still sort of wishes I'd voted LibDem last year and made the margin of victory in Fife North East one vote instead of two. Admittedly, I did actually consider it. There was a post on the Lib Dem reddit group shortly after the election, from a party supporter who said that he had cast a proxy vote for a friend in that seat, and that (IIRC) his friend was a unionist who wanted to vote for the SNP 'to keep the Conservatives out'. Allegedly (the story didn't seem particularly non-genuine, but it is a little out there!), said person held true to his friend's word and cast their vote for the SNP (rather than casting an extra Lib Dem vote). Also - considering that the margin would change by one vote rather than two, and you considered voting Lib Dem - does that mean you're a Scottish Green that's a unionist? I voted Yes in 2014 but would not particularly be inclined to do so again if there was a referendum tomorrow. I don't vote on constitutional lines in elections, but I'm not very keen on voting for a catch-all clientelist nationalist party. I actually knew both the Labour and LibDem candidates, which was a large part of it. The Labour candidate I'd vaguely known from the UCU, and I'd voted for her in the Holyrood constituency in 2016. We got on well as candidates for the same ward in the council election last year, and I gave her my second preference. The LibDem candidate had not only been a councillor for my ward, but is also the widow of a former lecturer in my department. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 3, 2018 18:28:21 GMT
Part of me still sort of wishes I'd voted LibDem last year and made the margin of victory in Fife North East one vote instead of two. Admittedly, I did actually consider it. There was a post on the Lib Dem reddit group shortly after the election, from a party supporter who said that he had cast a proxy vote for a friend in that seat, and that (IIRC) his friend was a unionist who wanted to vote for the SNP 'to keep the Conservatives out'. Allegedly (the story didn't seem particularly non-genuine, but it is a little out there!), said person held true to his friend's word and cast their vote for the SNP (rather than casting an extra Lib Dem vote). Also - considering that the margin would change by one vote rather than two, and you considered voting Lib Dem - does that mean you're a Scottish Green that's a unionist? If he’d voted Lib Dem instead of SNP it would’ve been an exact tie. |
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Post by therealriga on Aug 3, 2018 20:09:29 GMT
The results in Inverness, Nairn & Lochaber in 1992 and Belfast South in 2015 are quite something. The seats were won on less than 27% of the vote. Talking of South Belfast, not a FPTP election of course but have a look at the 'winning' vote share in Botanic www.ark.ac.uk/elections/nlgbcc.htmWhat are we supposed to be looking for in Botanic? There were five elected so the winning vote share was the quota: approximately 16.67% of the vote. |
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Post by johnloony on Aug 3, 2018 20:14:55 GMT
What are we supposed to be looking for in Botanic? There were five elected so the winning vote share was the quota: approximately 16.67% of the vote. I was looking at the percentage of votes for each party in the first round. |
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Post by therealriga on Aug 3, 2018 20:15:23 GMT
The results in Inverness, Nairn & Lochaber in 1992 and Belfast South in 2015 are quite something. The seats were won on less than 27% of the vote. Belfast has "form" in that respect. Belfast east was won with 31.4% in 1979 and Belfast north went one better: it was won with 27.6% of the vote in 1979. I think that might have been the lowest winning percentage until beaten by Inverness? |
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Post by therealriga on Aug 3, 2018 20:34:33 GMT
What are we supposed to be looking for in Botanic? There were five elected so the winning vote share was the quota: approximately 16.67% of the vote. I was looking at the percentage of votes for each party in the first round. Oh yeah, that area has always had results like that. The 2011 result in Balmoral, one of the predecessors, was SDLP: 2,892 (29.0%), 2 seats DUP: 1,949 (19.6%), 1 seat Alliance: 1,762 (17.7%), 1 seat UUP: 1,500 (15.1%), 1 seat SF: 1,465 (14.7%), 1 Seat Green: 282 (2.8%) PBP: 107 (1.1%) There's also the 1996 forum result in Belfast North: DUP 7,778 (19.2%) SF 7,681 (19.0%) SDLP 7,493 (18.5%) UUP 6,938 (17.2%) PUP 3,777 (9.3%) |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 3, 2018 20:52:27 GMT
The results in Inverness, Nairn & Lochaber in 1992 and Belfast South in 2015 are quite something. The seats were won on less than 27% of the vote. Belfast has "form" in that respect. Belfast east was won with 31.4% in 1979 and Belfast north went one better: it was won with 27.6% of the vote in 1979. I think that might have been the lowest winning percentage until beaten by Inverness? Nope General Election 1922: Portsmouth Central Party Candidate Votes % ± Unionist Frank Privett 7,666 26.9 % National Liberal Thomas Fisher 7,659 26.8 % Liberal Thomas Bramsdon 7,129 24.9 % Labour Arthur George Gourd 6,126 21.4 % |
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 3, 2018 21:32:32 GMT
Belfast has "form" in that respect. Belfast east was won with 31.4% in 1979 and Belfast north went one better: it was won with 27.6% of the vote in 1979. I think that might have been the lowest winning percentage until beaten by Inverness? Nope General Election 1922: Portsmouth Central Party Candidate Votes % ± Unionist Frank Privett 7,666 26.9 % National Liberal Thomas Fisher 7,659 26.8 % Liberal Thomas Bramsdon 7,129 24.9 % Labour Arthur George Gourd 6,126 21.4 % i see Mr Gourd's hopes were squashed by that result..... |
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Post by greatkingrat on Aug 3, 2018 21:38:43 GMT
When asked at the count if he thought he had won, the unionist hedged his bets.
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Post by andrewteale on Aug 3, 2018 22:20:06 GMT
I think I have a potential winner for the closest top three - South Kintyre, Argyll and Bute in 2017; the Conservative, Liberal Democrat and SNP candidate all got the exact same number of votes. Not so. That election was uncontested. |
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