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Post by londonseal80 on Jun 10, 2018 17:48:59 GMT
The municipal borough of Epsom and Ewell and the urban districts of Banstead, Staines, Sunbury and Chigwell lose their fight to stay out of Greater London in the 1963 local government act. Conversely Romford and Hornchurch manage to stay in Essex.
Discuss?
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Post by swanarcadian on Jun 10, 2018 22:56:40 GMT
Ken Livingstone doesn't become GLC leader in 1981.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 10, 2018 23:02:45 GMT
Ken Livingstone doesn't become GLC leader in 1981. Labour had 50 of 92 seats in 1981. These changes would at most have created 3 additional Conservative seats (1 in Spelthorne, 1 in Chigwell and 1 in Epsom/Banstead ) while removing two Conservative seats and one Labour seat in Havering. So Labour would till have won a clear majority in 1981 and Livinsgtone won the leadership election by 30 to 20 so regardless of how the member for Hornchurch voted, he would still have won |
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Post by swanarcadian on Jun 11, 2018 5:41:46 GMT
I confess that was a lazy and wishful assumption on my part.
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Post by londonseal80 on Jun 11, 2018 7:51:39 GMT
Depends how the boroughs are drawn really for example.
I) Twickenham/Spethorne
II) Kingston/Richmond/Barnes/Malden/Surbiton (minus Chessington and Tolworth)
III) Epsom and Ewell/Banstead/Chessington and Tolworth.
Say the Epsom borough gets split east west for the GLC
Creating a posh Epsom East (The Downs, Ewell Village, Banstead, Kingswood) - safe Conservative. Epsom West however wouldn’t be an overly safe Conservative area and would have the working class bits of Epsom and Ewell paired with Tolworth, Hook and Chessington (which were good for Labour in the 1970s) so might have gone Labour in 1973 like Carshalton did.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 11, 2018 8:16:29 GMT
Depends how the boroughs are drawn really But as I say not much really depends on it as the closest election was 1981 which wasn't close enough for these changes to have made any difference. 1964 and 1973 had large Labour majorities and 1967, 1970 and 1977 had large Conservative majorities. It wouldn't have made a difference in any of the GLA elections either. Maybe if the proposition was to bring in many more areas as was originally proposed (ie what is now Elmbridge, Cheshunt, Potters Bar etc) it could have made it reasonably close in 1981 but even then I don't think the Conservatives can get another 8 seats out of it |
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Post by londonseal80 on Jun 11, 2018 8:56:13 GMT
Depends how the boroughs are drawn really But as I say not much really depends on it as the closest election was 1981 which wasn't close enough for these changes to have made any difference. 1964 and 1973 had large Labour majorities and 1967, 1970 and 1977 had large Conservative majorities. It wouldn't have made a difference in any of the GLA elections either. Maybe if the proposition was to bring in many more areas as was originally proposed (ie what is now Elmbridge, Cheshunt, Potters Bar etc) it could have made it reasonably close in 1981 but even then I don't think the Conservatives can get another 8 seats out of it There would also be a chance that the Conservatives would not win Cheshunt or Epsom West in 1981 I would say the latter could have been won by the Alliance even. The old Epsom and Ewell West Surrey CC seat voted Labour in 1973, Con in 1977 and a shock Liberal gain in 1981 announced on the Thames News Election programme. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 11, 2018 9:18:26 GMT
Cheshunt clearly voted Conservative in the 1981 county council elections and they won all four seats covering the area. I don't see there being any 'Epsom West' - the GLC constituencies were the same as the then parliamentary constituencies so there would have been an Epsom & Ewell seat which would of course be safely Conservative. Not sure how this would have worked in the case of Cheshunt which wasn't and wouldn't have been a whole constituency but I'd note that the Conservative lead over Labour in Cheshunt in 1981 was larger than the Labour lead over the Conservatives in Enfield North
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Post by londonseal80 on Jun 14, 2018 10:13:01 GMT
My Epsom proposals would include Chessington/Tolworth/Southborough/Hook as Epsom/Banstead would be to small to be a borough on its own but too large to be just one constituency the Surrey Epsom and Ewell has a very large electorate compared to the 1973 GLC seats. The remainer of Kingston would form a borough with Richmond (Surrey half) and Twickenham/Staines would be the other borough. Not sure what to do with Chigwell though? Would have to join Ilford somehow I guess?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 14, 2018 11:25:39 GMT
My Epsom proposals would include Chessington/Tolworth/Southborough/Hook as Epsom/Banstead would be to small to be a borough on its own but too large to be just one constituency the Surrey Epsom and Ewell has a very large electorate compared to the 1973 GLC seats. The remainer of Kingston would form a borough with Richmond (Surrey half) and Twickenham/Staines would be the other borough. Not sure what to do with Chigwell though? Would have to join Ilford somehow I guess? But that is what was proposed en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Commission_on_Local_Government_in_Greater_London |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 14, 2018 11:38:49 GMT
My Epsom proposals would include Chessington/Tolworth/Southborough/Hook as Epsom/Banstead would be to small to be a borough on its own but too large to be just one constituency the Surrey Epsom and Ewell has a very large electorate compared to the 1973 GLC seats. The remainer of Kingston would form a borough with Richmond (Surrey half) and Twickenham/Staines would be the other borough. Not sure what to do with Chigwell though? Would have to join Ilford somehow I guess? But that is what was proposed en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Commission_on_Local_Government_in_Greater_LondonBefore the decision was taken to make outer London boroughs education authorities. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 14, 2018 12:00:07 GMT
I guess with the larger boroughs, Epsom/Ewll and Banstead would have gone with Sutton and the UDs which now form Elmbridge would have gone with Kingston. Both these boroughs would have been good for three seats (and still would be I suppose) - the two Kingston seats in particular were very undersized from the outset. So in that case CXhessington, Tolworth etc would have instead linked with the Dittons and the Moleseys
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Post by londonseal80 on Jun 14, 2018 15:23:52 GMT
I guess with the larger boroughs, Epsom/Ewll and Banstead would have gone with Sutton and the UDs which now form Elmbridge would have gone with Kingston. Both these boroughs would have been good for three seats (and still would be I suppose) - the two Kingston seats in particular were very undersized from the outset. So in that case CXhessington, Tolworth etc would have instead linked with the Dittons and the Moleseys That wouldn’t have been a bad proposal actually. Sutton/Epsom would be a sort of South West London version of Bromley I guess. Would the borough still be called Sutton though? Or would Epsom lay the greater claim to have the borough named after it instead? Kingston/Elmbridge go quite well together. Elmbridge is very much ultra rich (like East Sheen) more so than most of Kingston.. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 14, 2018 16:48:52 GMT
I guess with the larger boroughs, Epsom/Ewll and Banstead would have gone with Sutton and the UDs which now form Elmbridge would have gone with Kingston. Both these boroughs would have been good for three seats (and still would be I suppose) - the two Kingston seats in particular were very undersized from the outset. So in that case CXhessington, Tolworth etc would have instead linked with the Dittons and the Moleseys That wouldn’t have been a bad proposal actually. Sutton/Epsom would be a sort of South West London version of Bromley I guess. Would the borough still be called Sutton though? Or would Epsom lay the greater claim to have the borough named after it instead? Kingston/Elmbridge go quite well together. Elmbridge is very much ultra rich (like East Sheen) more so than most of Kingston.. I think Epsom might have the greater claim given that the Sutton & Cheam seat was only creaated in 1945 and it was carved out of Epsom |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,776 
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jun 14, 2018 17:01:20 GMT
That wouldn’t have been a bad proposal actually. Sutton/Epsom would be a sort of South West London version of Bromley I guess. Would the borough still be called Sutton though? Or would Epsom lay the greater claim to have the borough named after it instead? Kingston/Elmbridge go quite well together. Elmbridge is very much ultra rich (like East Sheen) more so than most of Kingston.. I think Epsom might have the greater claim given that the Sutton & Cheam seat was only creaated in 1945 and it was carved out of Epsom And of course Sid James was a Cheam councillor when he demolishd Tony Hancock's house and rehoused him in a dogtrack. Sold television rights to the centenary celebrations to the BBC when the town mayor had already sold them to ITV. Built a new road across Tony's allotment.  |
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Post by londonseal80 on Jun 16, 2018 15:23:30 GMT
Ken Livingstone doesn't become GLC leader in 1981. Zac Goldsmith wins 2016 mayoral election. Almost every ward (let alone district) outside of London that could have been in London would have voted for Zac. Khan would have only carried Court in Epsom and Ewell (and possibly Town and at a push Stamford, due to a few similarities with St Marks and Grove in Kingston) can’t see any Spelthorne, Chigwell, Cheshunt, Elmbridge or Banstead wards voting for Khan. Cowley Hill in Hertsmere is the other possibility but is it quite a Jewish ward? Was Watford included in the Greater London plan? |
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Jun 16, 2018 15:49:48 GMT
Ken Livingstone doesn't become GLC leader in 1981. Zac Goldsmith wins 2016 mayoral election. Almost every ward (let alone district) outside of London that could have been in London would have voted for Zac. Khan would have only carried Court in Epsom and Ewell (and possibly Town and at a push Stamford, due to a few similarities with St Marks and Grove in Kingston) can’t see any Spelthorne, Chigwell, Cheshunt, Elmbridge or Banstead wards voting for Khan. Cowley Hill in Hertsmere is the other possibility but is it quite a Jewish ward? Was Watford included in the Greater London plan? We lost by over 200k first round and 300k on the second. I don't think there's enough net Tories in those area to overcome that. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Jun 16, 2018 16:08:18 GMT
The interesting one would actually be at the borough level. Would the RA have been able to overcome the borough expansion, would the E&E Conservatives have started seriously contesting the borough council much earlier if they'd been in London and how might control have gone?
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Post by londonseal80 on Jun 16, 2018 17:30:16 GMT
The interesting one would actually be at the borough level. Would the RA have been able to overcome the borough expansion, would the E&E Conservatives have started seriously contesting the borough council much earlier if they'd been in London and how might control have gone? Very good question if you see what happened in Croydon and Beddington (which was even more predominantly RA than Epsom was) then you may have seen the Conservatives targeting them much earlier though in I think some of the Epsom wards it would have split the right wing vote and some the MOR wards might have actually elected Labour councillors instead of Conservative ones in the 1970s. You have Court ward which was similar to The Carshalton St Helier wards which always voted Labour often with 75% of the vote. Some of other wards are similar to Sutton North-East and Cheam North which narrowly elected Labour councillors in 1971. The wards that border Cheam Village and Banstead are the most affluent in the borough. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,931
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 19, 2018 9:53:50 GMT
Ken Livingstone doesn't become GLC leader in 1981. Zac Goldsmith wins 2016 mayoral election. Almost every ward (let alone district) outside of London that could have been in London would have voted for Zac. Khan would have only carried Court in Epsom and Ewell (and possibly Town and at a push Stamford, due to a few similarities with St Marks and Grove in Kingston) can’t see any Spelthorne, Chigwell, Cheshunt, Elmbridge or Banstead wards voting for Khan. Cowley Hill in Hertsmere is the other possibility but is it quite a Jewish ward? Was Watford included in the Greater London plan? Stanwell and Waltham Cross must at least be possibilities I would have thought? Maybe one or two others as well. |
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