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Post by islington on Jun 7, 2018 13:49:28 GMT
I’ve started a new thread for this so that the discussion is no longer squatting in the ‘North went South’ thread. I trust everyone is in the mood for a good technical preamble before getting down to business. Just to recap, the question I’m trying to answer here is, on the basis of the current UK review, how many seats the Republic of Ireland would receive if it still took part in Westminster elections, and what those seats might look like. At the Irish general election in Feb 2016 the electorate was officially given as 3305110 and I’m taking this as corresponding to the UK electorate in Dec 2015, which forms the basis of the current review. Taking the UK quota of 74769, this implies an entitlement of 44.20 = 44 seats, meaning (including NI’s 17) 61 in Ireland as a whole and a House of Commons of 644 members in total. In an ideal world, I’d have apportioned these seats based on the Irish electorate, but I couldn’t find the numbers at any level below the 40 multi-member constituencies used to elect the Dail. Population figures, however, are supplied by the Irish census right down to the level of Electoral Divisions, which are (mostly) very small units used as building-blocks for electoral purposes. A difficulty with EDs is that they are so very small, especially in more rural areas, that the task becomes unmanageable without some way of grouping them. The Irish census does this based on former administrative units that can, in most areas, be traced back to Victorian times. I have occasionally used these groupings but really, I wanted something more up-to-date and the best candidate seemed to be the Local Electoral Areas (LEAs) that are used to elect county councils and other county-equivalent authorities. These were most recently defined in a report that can be found here www.housing.gov.ie/sites/default/files/migrated-files/en/Publications/LocalGovernment/Administration/FileDownLoad%2C33299%2Cen.pdfAnyone that wants to see my proposed boundaries on a map will have no choice but to look at this report because, sadly, the invaluable Boundary Assistant does not yet extend to the Republic of Ireland so I have no means of generating my own maps. The 2013 report includes maps showing the LEAs and the EDs that comprise them, together with population numbers for each LEA based on the 2011 census. Rather than try to modify these numbers to take account of the 2016 census, which would have been a lot of trouble for what is after all (I plead in mitigation) only a recreational exercise, I used the 2011 census numbers throughout the exercise and especially table CD115 here www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/census/documents/census2011vol1andprofile1/Table_6.pdfTo derive the constituency quota in terms of the 2011 population, I took the ratio of the total as found at the census (4588252) against the electorate in 2016 (3303110) and applied it to the UK quote of 74769. This gives a quota of 103797, with a maximum and minimum of +/-5%, namely 108985 and 98608. Turning now to the practical issues of the boundaries themselves, the principal administrative unit in most of the Republic is the county, but it’s obvious that with one or two exceptions the counties are much too small to be allocated a whole number of seats. The traditional provinces, on the other hand, are much more promising. The numbers are as follows. Connacht (including the 3 Ulster counties not in NI): 837350 = 8.07 = 8 seats Munster: 1246088 = 12.01 = 12 seats Leinster: 2504814 = 24.13 = 24 seats On the perennially-contentious issue of names, wherever possible I’ve used names reflecting those of the traditional counties, but this is mainly on the grounds of familiarity and where such a name is also that of a town (as it usually is) it should be understood as relating to the town itself, not to the eponymous county. But the names are essentially no more than markers and I’m sure many of my suggestions can be improved upon (a comment that really applies to this exercise as a whole). Right, so much by way of introduction. In my next post I’ll start to offer up some seats. I started in the north-west of Ireland because of the tricky business of working round the border. |
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Post by islington on Jun 7, 2018 15:59:59 GMT
Connacht plus the three Ulster counties in the Republic has a population of 837350 = 8.07 = 8 seats.
This area can conveniently be subdivided because the three Ulster counties plus Leitrim, Sligo and Mayo add up to 522632 = 5.04 = 5 seats.
We have 17 seats preallocated to Northern Ireland (see the relevant thread or the BCNI reports for several different ways of doing this) so we start with -
18 - Letterkenny: 108141
This is wholly within Co Donegal, comprising the three LEAs listed below. It does not include Donegal town so I've gone for the name of a large town roughly in the middle.
Glenties LEA: 25317
Inishowen LEA: 41127
Letterkenny LEA: 41697
19 - Donegal and Cavan: 105894
The configuration of the border with NI is extremely awkward and this, combined with the separation of Donegal from the other Ulster counties, makes it difficult to avoid at least one very clumsy seat in this area. This is it - it's good to get it out of the way near the start. This is a really horrible constituency and I welcome alternative suggestions. It does have internal connectivity by road, just about, although in practice if you wanted to go from Donegal town to Cavan you'd drive through Northern Ireland. Apart from being completely dominated by the border, it divides the least populous county in Ireland (Leitrim), and it includes parts of three counties, something I generally tried to avoid (not always with success). It comprises:
from Donegal -
Donegal LEA: 26863
Stranorlar LEA: 26166
from Cavan -
Cavan-Belturbet LEA: 24455
Corr, Crossdoney and Springfield EDs: 1641
from Leitrim -
Ballinamore LEA: 9864
Carrick-on-Shannon LEA: 11018
Kinlough Rural Area (7 EDs): 2886
A further 8 EDs - basically Manorhamilton ED and everything north or east of it: 3001
20 - Monaghan: 107570
Monaghan (the whole county): 60483
from Cavan -
Bailieborough-Cootehill LEA: 24131
Ballyjamesduff LEA (except the 3 EDs in Donegal & Cavan): 22956
21 - Mayo: 100927
Wholly within Mayo but omitting most of Ballina LEA.
Castlebar: 34000
Claremorris: 32469
West Mayo: 31190
Swineford ED and Brackloon ED: 3268
22 - Sligo: 100133
Another three-county effort but much more manageable.
Sligo (the whole county): 65393
from Mayo -
Ballina LEA except Swineford and Brackloon EDs: 29711
from Leitrim -
Manorhamilton LEA (the parts not in Donegal & Cavan): 5029
That'll do for now.
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jun 7, 2018 17:26:05 GMT
My recollection is that it's not possible to drive from one end of Leitrim to the other without passing through another county. Perhaps your bit of Cavan make it possible.
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obsie
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Post by obsie on Jun 7, 2018 19:41:06 GMT
Connacht plus the three Ulster counties in the Republic has a population of 837350 = 8.07 = 8 seats. This area can conveniently be subdivided because the three Ulster counties plus Leitrim, Sligo and Mayo add up to 522632 = 5.04 = 5 seats. We have 17 seats preallocated to Northern Ireland (see the relevant thread or the BCNI reports for several different ways of doing this) so we start with - 18 - Letterkenny: 108141This is wholly within Co Donegal, comprising the three LEAs listed below. It does not include Donegal town so I've gone for the name of a large town roughly in the middle. Glenties LEA: 25317 Inishowen LEA: 41127 Letterkenny LEA: 41697 North Donegal - no-one hearing "Donegal" thinks of the town but of the county. Leitrim, South Donegal and West Cavan. Yes, I know it's an awkward name but leave out any of the counties and it's pitchfork time. Monaghan and East Cavan Sligo and North Mayo, or if you want to be historical, Sligo and Tirawley. |
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Post by islington on Jun 8, 2018 9:03:34 GMT
Thanks for comments.
Regarding the names - I meant them only as markers and I'm perfectly willing to accept that my London ears are tone-deaf to the way Irish people wish to express their own geography. So please keep the alternative suggestions coming.
The next batch consists of the two counties of Galway and Roscommon with a combined population of 314718 = 3.03 = 3 seats.
23 - Galway: 102469
Obviously it would not make sense to have a seat cut in half by Lough Corrib, so Conamara must go in with Galway itself. But this combination is over the limit, so one ED (Ballybaan) is squeezed out on the east side of Galway city. However, the great majority of the city, including its historic centre, is included in the seat.
Galway City (except Ballybaan ED): 63231
Conamara LEA: 39238
24 - Athenry: 107690
This lies wholly within Co Galway and maybe the name should reflect that, but Athenry is an historic place and very central in the seat. In terms of boundaries this is a good compact seat (so far as it's possible for a seat to be compact is such a sparsely-populated area). It takes in Ballybaan ED displaced from Galway City.
Ballinasloe LEA: 24561
Loughrea LEA: 37416
Atherry-Oranmore LEA: 33415
Ballybaan ED: 12298
25 - Roscommon: 104559
This is a very straightforward seat.
Roscommon (the whole county): 64065
Tuam LEA: 40494
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Post by islington on Jun 8, 2018 12:27:50 GMT
Right, on to Munster -
The province has a population of 1246088 = 12.01 = 12 seats but can be subdivided because the counties of Clare, Kerry, Limerick, Tipperary and Waterford (that is, everything except Cork) collectively add up to 727056 or 7.00, so the numbers couldn't be better for seven seats.
26 - Kerry: 103245
Wholly within Co. Kerry: essentially it includes the town of Tralee and everything south of it. This would unquestionably be one of the most scenic constituencies in the British Isles.
South and West Kerry LEA: 38873
Killarney LEA: 38040
Tralee Urban and Rural EDs: 22837
5 further EDs in the Tralee area, namely Kilgobban, Knockglass, Bautregaum, Blennerville Ballyseedy: 3495
27 - Listowel and Newcastlewest: 102680
I imagine obsie might suggest 'North Kerry and West Limerick' and he (or she) is probably right.
Tralee LEA (parts not in the previous seat): 13719
Listowel LEA: 28538
Newcastlewest LEA: 27357
Adare-Rathkeale LEA: 27755
9 further EDs from Grange south to Colmanswell including Bruff, Dromin and Bruree: 5311
28 - Limerick: 102161
This is coterminous with Limerick city.
29 - Clare: 106774
Wholly contained within Clare but omitting an area to the east of the county.
West Clare LEA: 34449
Ennis LEA: 33010
Shannon LEA: 26797
Killaloe LEA (except parts in the following seat): 12518
30 - Tipperary: 104636
This is another three-county affair incorporating two LEAs from Co. Tipperary, including Tipperary town, but also mopping up the remaining areas of Limerick and Clare. Note that the Clare section includes the town of Killaloe with its bridge over the Shannon, so it is connected by road with the rest of the seat (although, having taken a look at the bridge on GoogleEarth, I'm not sure this counts for very much).
from Tipperary -
Cashel-Tipperary LEA: 27549
Nenagh LEA: 37440
from Limerick -
Cappamore-Kilmallock LEA (except the 9 EDs in Listowel & Newcastlewest): 29225
from Clare -
Scarriff Rural Area: 7360
5 further EDs, namely Lackareagh, O'Briensbridge, Killokennedy, Fahymore, Kiltenanlea: 3062
31 - Clonmel: 101583
This covers the rest of Co. Tipperary with some border areas from Co. Waterford.
Clonmel LEA: 36569
Carrick-on-Suir LEA: 21827
Templemore-Thurles LEA: 35367
Carrick-on-Suir (no 2) Rural Area (from Co. Waterford): 5025
Clonmel (no 2) Rural Area (from Co. Waterford): 2795
32 - Waterford: 105975
Essentially the whole of Co. Waterford except for a few areas on the northern border that have to be removed to balance the numbers (and that probably look more to Clonmel and Carrick than to Waterford in any case).
Waterford City: 65928
Comeragh LEA (part not in previous seat): 11557
Dungarvan-Lismore LEA: 28490
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obsie
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Post by obsie on Jun 8, 2018 12:42:31 GMT
Thanks for comments. Regarding the names - I meant them only as markers and I'm perfectly willing to accept that my London ears are tone-deaf to the way Irish people wish to express their own geography. So please keep the alternative suggestions coming. The next batch consists of the two counties of Galway and Roscommon with a combined population of 314718 = 3.03 = 3 seats. 23 - Galway: 102469Obviously it would not make sense to have a seat cut in half by Lough Corrib, so Conamara must go in with Galway itself. But this combination is over the limit, so one ED (Ballybaan) is squeezed out on the east side of Galway city. However, the great majority of the city, including its historic centre, is included in the seat. Galway City (except Ballybaan ED): 63231 Conamara LEA: 39238 24 - Athenry: 107690This lies wholly within Co Galway and maybe the name should reflect that, but Athenry is an historic place and very central in the seat. In terms of boundaries this is a good compact seat (so far as it's possible for a seat to be compact is such a sparsely-populated area). It takes in Ballybaan ED displaced from Galway City. Ballinasloe LEA: 24561 Loughrea LEA: 37416 Atherry-Oranmore LEA: 33415 Ballybaan ED: 12298 25 - Roscommon: 104559This is a very straightforward seat. Roscommon (the whole county): 64065 Tuam LEA: 40494 West Galway (or Cathair na Gaillimhe agus Conamara if you want to do a Na h-Eileanan an Iar on it) South Galway Roscommon and North Galway
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obsie
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Post by obsie on Jun 8, 2018 12:49:45 GMT
I would really rethink the Tipperary/Limerick situation. Either put the south-east of Clare (the old Meelick RD) in with Limerick city and remove some of the southern rural/exurban fringe from Limerick or - if you insist on crossing the bridge at Killaloe-Ballina - swap Cashel/Tipperary with Templemore/Thurles to preserve a north-south division within Tipperary.
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obsie
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Post by obsie on Jun 8, 2018 12:56:09 GMT
Thanks for comments. Regarding the names - I meant them only as markers and I'm perfectly willing to accept that my London ears are tone-deaf to the way Irish people wish to express their own geography. So please keep the alternative suggestions coming. There isn't a -shire equivalent in Ireland so counties are referred to as County X and if there's a distinction or ambiguity between a county and its eponymous town, the county is taken as the default, e.g. County Monaghan and Monaghan town. |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jun 8, 2018 13:56:32 GMT
This would unquestionably be one of the most scenic constituencies in the British Isles. BZZZZZZZZZT! *Never* use that phrase within hearing of Irishmen and women. "These islands" seems to be the preferred way of avoiding something long winded like "Northwest European Archipelago" or something like that. |
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jun 8, 2018 14:02:28 GMT
This would unquestionably be one of the most scenic constituencies in the British Isles. BZZZZZZZZZT! *Never* use that phrase within hearing of Irishmen and women. "These islands" seems to be the preferred way of avoiding something long winded like "Northwest European Archipelago" or something like that. So, when I'm in Hong Kong chatting with a Japanese colleague, I have to say "the jet stream is descending over these islands"? Is "North America" also verboten? "Iberia"? "Scandinavia"? |
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Chris from Brum
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What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,771
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jun 8, 2018 14:07:36 GMT
BZZZZZZZZZT! *Never* use that phrase within hearing of Irishmen and women. "These islands" seems to be the preferred way of avoiding something long winded like "Northwest European Archipelago" or something like that. So, when I'm in Hong Kong chatting with a Japanese colleague, I have to say "the jet stream is descending over these islands"? Is "North America" also verboten? "Iberia"? "Scandinavia"? Almost certainly not. But the Irish can be very sensitive about the term "British" being extended to cover Ireland as well as GB. |
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obsie
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Post by obsie on Jun 8, 2018 14:17:20 GMT
BZZZZZZZZZT! *Never* use that phrase within hearing of Irishmen and women. "These islands" seems to be the preferred way of avoiding something long winded like "Northwest European Archipelago" or something like that. So, when I'm in Hong Kong chatting with a Japanese colleague, I have to say "the jet stream is descending over these islands"? Is "North America" also verboten? "Iberia"? "Scandinavia"? No, but "Spanish peninsula" or "Greater Sweden" would not be so great an idea.
"Britain and Ireland" is fine.
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Post by islington on Jun 8, 2018 14:32:30 GMT
Well, at least no one disagreed about its scenic qualities.
Obsie - Maybe you should be doing this instead of me because you're right about Limerick. My only defence, and it's not a good one, is that the Republic is replete with counties and county-equivalents that are roughly the right size for a single seat under this exercise, but slightly too big or too small to fall within the 5% tolerance. Limerick City is the only one that fits, and I think I allowed myself to get seduced by this. But you're right. I could have put some western EDs totalling about 7k from Limerick City into the Listowel/Newcastlewest seat, compensated Limerick with about 10k from southern Clare, and kept the Shannon as Clare's eastern border. This would have left Cashel-Tipp and Nenagh LEAs to go with the whole of Capp-Kilmallock LEA to total 99525, just over the minimum.
This is a fairly simple adjustment. However, trying to restore the traditional north-south split in Co Tipperary is a lot tougher.
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obsie
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Post by obsie on Jun 8, 2018 14:54:51 GMT
Well, at least no one disagreed about its scenic qualities. Obsie - Maybe you should be doing this instead of me because you're right about Limerick. My only defence, and it's not a good one, is that the Republic is replete with counties and county-equivalents that are roughly the right size for a single seat under this exercise, but slightly too big or too small to fall within the 5% tolerance. Limerick City is the only one that fits, and I think I allowed myself to get seduced by this. But you're right. I could have put some western EDs totalling about 7k from Limerick City into the Listowel/Newcastlewest seat, compensated Limerick with about 10k from southern Clare, and kept the Shannon as Clare's eastern border. This would have left Cashel-Tipp and Nenagh LEAs to go with the whole of Capp-Kilmallock LEA to total 99525, just over the minimum. This is a fairly simple adjustment. However, trying to restore the traditional north-south split in Co Tipperary is a lot tougher. Clare in Munster is like Donegal in the Republic more generally in that you have to sort it out before you move on elsewhere.
For Tipperary, I'd swap Cashel/Tipperary for Templemore/Thurles and then trim the latter along the course of the M8 to bring the two roughly into balance. It should give you a South Tipperary and a North Tipperary and East Limerick.
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Post by islington on Jun 8, 2018 16:05:27 GMT
Thanks all for comments. I hadn't really thought before about how convenient it is to have the '-shire' suffix to avoid ambiguity.
At any rate, I now move on to Corkshire.*
Including the city it is perfect for five seats with 519032 = 5.00. Cork City is 119230 so part of it can be hived off to leave the rest as a single seat. This means the wider county gets four seats. It's divided into eight LEAs so my basic plan is to pair them off and then shift marginal EDs around to get the numbers right.
33 - Blarney and Bantry: 106371
Essentially the western part of the county.
Blarney-Macroom LEA: 43398
West Cork LEA: 56530
6 EDs from Bandon-Kinsale LEA, in sequence Inishannon, Kilbrogan, Boulteen, Cashel, Baurleigh, Rathclarin: 6443
34 - Bandon and Kinsale: 107957
In the south of the county, and includes a lot of southern suburbs of Cork itself.
Ballincollig-Carrigaline LEA: 71946
Bandon-Kinsale LEA (minus the 6 EDs in the previous seat): 36011
35 - Cork: 104913
This is the city proper, population 119230, minus the Cork City NE LEA (14317). It's a pity to remove this area, which is clearly an integral part of Cork, but something like this was unavoidable unless I wanted to add in enough surrounding area to have two city-based seats (which looked more disruptive).
36 - Cobh: 100185
Pronounced 'Cove', I believe, although I'm open to correction on this. The seat is roughly the area east of Cork city itself.
Cobh LEA: 53544
Cork City North East LEA: 14317
East Cork LEA (except the parts in the following seat): 33224
37 - Mallow and Youghal: 99606
The north of the county but extending down to the coast in the Youghal area.
Kanturk-Mallow LEA: 47305
Fermoy LEA: 42226
Youghal town: 6990
Youghal (no.1) Rural Area (except Killeagh and Kilmacdonough): 3085
* I solemnly promise never to do this again.
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jun 8, 2018 16:27:54 GMT
Thanks for comments. Regarding the names - I meant them only as markers and I'm perfectly willing to accept that my London ears are tone-deaf to the way Irish people wish to express their own geography. So please keep the alternative suggestions coming. There isn't a -shire equivalent in Ireland so counties are referred to as County X and if there's a distinction or ambiguity between a county and its eponymous town, the county is taken as the default, e.g. County Monaghan and Monaghan town. It's an oddity that -shire never caught on in Ireland (with the possible exception of Downshire). I'm aware that it's an Anglo-Saxon suffix (originally -scir), but the Scots don't have a problem with it, nor do the Welsh (whose counties are Sir Benfro, Sir Gar, Sir Morgannwg etc in their own language, and a pound to a penny that "Sir" is taken from "shire"). Anyway, not all English counties are -shire, take Cumberland, Westmorland Northumberland and Co. Durham for a start. |
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Post by islington on Jun 8, 2018 17:13:27 GMT
Hmm, we could be heading for a derailed thread here but -
The '-shire' is redundant if the county's not named after a town so you could have added several others such as Kent, Essex, Cornwall to your list. 'Devonshire' is quite often used but it's never been the official name of the county; 'Rutlandshire' is occasionally heard but seems to be frowned on (rightly, I feel).
Co. Durham is an interesting one. The explanation may be that, as a county, it was a very late arrival on the scene (having previously been the temporal domain of the Bishop of Durham, a semi-independent potentate in the middle ages). It was unrepresented in the House of Commons until the Restoration period, and as late as the 19th century it still seems to have been felt to be in some way unusual, and not quite a normal county like the rest.
But there's nothing inherently wrong with the name 'Durhamshire' except its unfamiliarity, and it would spare us the discussions elsewhere on this site about the suitability, or not, of a name like 'North Durham' for a constituency that does not contain any part of the city of Durham itself. For exactly this reason, I line up with those arguing that it's an unsuitable name; but 'North Durhamshire' would be fine.
I think Scotland's main issue with the '-shire' suffix is that no one knows how to spell Invernesshire, or Inverness-shire, or Invernessshire.
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jun 8, 2018 17:20:07 GMT
So, when I'm in Hong Kong chatting with a Japanese colleague, I have to say "the jet stream is descending over these islands"? Is "North America" also verboten? "Iberia"? "Scandinavia"? Almost certainly not. But the Irish can be very sensitive about the term "British" being extended to cover Ireland as well as GB. Well, blame the Romans. They're the ones that called this bit of Geography the British Isles. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 8, 2018 17:47:31 GMT
This would unquestionably be one of the most scenic constituencies in the British Isles. BZZZZZZZZZT! *Never* use that phrase within hearing of Irishmen and women. "These islands" seems to be the preferred way of avoiding something long winded like "Northwest European Archipelago" or something like that. What if I'm in Hong Kong talking to an Irish colleague? Must I refer to 'those islands' in which case he will wonder what the fuck I'm talking about. The best way to avoid something long winded is to not pander to over-sensitive arseholes and to call things by their correct name. I note that some British people of a Eurosceptic disposition like to try and deny the geographical reality that Great Britain is in Europe. Will you indulge them in the same way? |
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