Alberta election

[timrollpickering]

This was officially called yesterday. The Progressive Conservatives have been in power for 41 years (just two short of the all time Canadian record).

They are facing their main challenge from Wildrose, a populist right-wing party. Alberta has a history of parties spending long periods in government then never making it back, and the PCs originally won government in 1971 after outsting the right-wing Social Credit party who'd been there since 1935.

Whatever the outcome this is likely to be the third ever Canadian electoral victory for a woman, with the PCs led by Alison Redford and Wildrose by Danielle Smith.

[Tony Otim]

Wildrose? Where does that name come from - sounds more like a lame country and western act than a political party?

[timrollpickering]

The provincial flower is the wild rose (rosa acicularis) and the party (well its predecessor) named itself after that.

The party has had an early cock-up. It seems they commissioned from the Liberal Democrat School of Campaign Bus Design:




Wildrose has since modified the design in the face of a barrage of jokes:

[Pete Whitehead]

The Wildrose bus makes it look like there's a pair of tits under the picture of Danielle Smith, whereas the LD one has a pair of tits above the tyres

[stepney]

Mar 28, 2012 13:58:27 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

The Wildrose bus makes it look like there's a pair of tits under the picture of Danielle Smith, whereas the LD one has a pair of tits above the tyres

[The Bishop]

Serious question - is Alberta the most right wing place in, at least, the "developed" world??

[timrollpickering]

Although Social Credit in 1935 took over from United Farmers (who had in turn taken over from the Liberals in 1921 who in turn had governed since the province was formed) and ISTR both parties started off rather more ambiguous on the spectrum and only shifted over time. IIUC provincial Social Credit governments found that a ) in order to implement the necessary reforms for the theory of money they needed federal power and b ) they weren't so interested in implementing it (which became a splitting point with the Quebec wing of the party who were) so they instead became catch all centre-right forces. I'm not sure if the shift occurred before or after they came to power.

[thetop]

Mar 28, 2012 13:58:27 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

The Wildrose bus makes it look like there's a pair of tits under the picture of Danielle Smith, whereas the LD one has a pair of tits above the tyres

;D

[johnloony]

I am marginally more interested in this election that I would normally be, because my sister is going to emigrate and live in Edmonton Alberta for the next 5 years.

[MeirionGwril]

I wonder if Edmonton will retain its 'Redmonton' label by voting for non-right wing parties?

[thetop]

Not if the polls are anything to go off. The latest showing:

In Calgary, Wildrose has 47 per cent, the PCs 29, Liberals 11, NDP 7 and the Alberta party 5, the poll showed. In Edmonton, Wildrose is at 31, PCs 30, Liberals 18, NDP 17 and Alberta Party 3. However, the margin of error is much higher in the cities, just over five per cent, because the sample sizes are just a few hundred.

so still noticably less right-wing than their immediate neighbours, but they appear to be voting for them.

[timrollpickering]

Polling's today and the final polls are confusing - it's close between Wildrose and the PCs, but just how close is unclear. The NDP look likely to come third and the Liberals are facing oblivion. ThreeHundredEight.com has found it near impossible to project the likely outcome.

[timrollpickering]

And the outcome is:

Progressive Conservative: 62 (-10 from 2008 or -4 from dissolution)
Wildrose: 17 (+17 or +13)
Liberal: 4 (-5 or -4)
NDP: 4 (+2 or +2)
(The Legislative Assembly was expanded by four seats.)
(One seat looks close between the PCs and the Liberals.)

At dissolution one seat was vacant, another independent and a third the Alberta Party (both from defections).

The vote %s so far:

PCs: 43.98%
Wildrose: 34.51%
NDP: 9.8%
Liberals: 9.63%
Alberta Party: 1.36%

An absolutely astonishing result given some of the polls in the campaign. The PCs have been re-elected with only a small slippage in the face of their toughest challenge since 1993, the Liberals have defied havy expectations of a wipe-out, Wildrose has advanced but at the very lower end of expectations and the NDP haven't been able to capitalise on the vote splitting.

Assuming no sudden shock, next year the Alberta Progressive Conservatives will become the longest continuous governing party in Canadian history, beating the 1943-1985 record of their Ontario counterparts (and unlike in Ontario, the Alberta PCs have never slipped into minority).

[The Bishop]

What are the changes in the popular vote since last time? And what is the "Alberta Party"??

[timrollpickering]

I can fish out the changes but because not all votes are counted on the night it's hard to get like for like comparisons.

The Alberta Party is a small fringe party that started off as a right-wing alternative but since the rise of Wildrose it's been left in the control of the centrists. Their leader is ex NDP and they briefly had an MLA who defected from the Liberals.

[kvasir]

All my Blue Tory friends were getting really excited saying this election would FORCE the Conservatives in Alberta to stop dumping on them.

The anger and disappointment in the result for them is very noticable.

[thetop]

Apr 24, 2012 10:20:24 GMT timrollpickering said:

I can fish out the changes but because not all votes are counted on the night it's hard to get like for like comparisons.

The Alberta Party is a small fringe party that started off as a right-wing alternative but since the rise of Wildrose it's been left in the control of the centrists. Their leader is ex NDP and they briefly had an MLA who defected from the Liberals.

The same centrists who tried to take over the Albertan Greens, and led to the quarter-of-a-century old party's dissolution at a time when they were gaining support!

[timrollpickering]

Apr 24, 2012 12:24:09 GMT @trident said:

Apr 24, 2012 9:52:04 GMT timrollpickering said:

An absolutely astonishing result given some of the polls in the campaign.

Indeed - how did they get it so wrong? Did Angus Reid do lots of polling for this election? ;D

I think the problem was the late shift in votes in the last couple of days, with the polls not conducted then and thus catching it. There were signs of a slight PC recovery in the final polls but the momentum wasn't measured, thus it caught everyone unaware.

[The Bishop]

Not conducting polls in the last couple of days was a mistake we learned to avoid after 1970 ;D

[johnloony]

Mar 29, 2012 2:57:41 GMT johnloony said:

I am marginally more interested in this election that I would normally be, because my sister is going to emigrate and live in Edmonton Alberta for the next 5 years.

Oops I completely forgot to follow this election until I looke don the thread just now... just last week my sister came back from Edmonton where she spent a few days sorting out the house where they are going to live and the school where my nephew will be going.