john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Jun 28, 2021 21:13:14 GMT
You have to have a heart of stone not to laugh... 😆😆😆 Hang on, aren't they supposed to be the squeaky clean ones, as opposed to FF, FG etc ... ? Maybe but Boris Johnson, Matt Hancock, and Pritti Patel would (almost) look squeaky clean when compared to FF and FG. It
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Post by seanryanj on Jun 28, 2021 21:17:03 GMT
Dublin Bay South By-Election poll. If the result is anything like that, it makes Bacik favourite on transfers. This is an awful poll for Boylan and undermines the two-horse race narrative that SF were trying to push against FG. Come the byelection, I don't expect the Green voters to swing behind the coalition partners. Fianna Fail will hope to do a bit better, though I would expect them to transfer to Fine Gael. Great poll for Bacik have a few euro on her was told by fgers I was mad....we will have to wait and see!
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 28, 2021 22:54:55 GMT
I had no idea Ivana Bacik was still on the scene, especially after Labour's implosion. She is clearly unflushable.
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 28, 2021 23:02:04 GMT
I had no idea Ivana Bacik was still on the scene, especially after Labour's implosion. She is clearly unflushable. "bouncebackability".
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 29, 2021 7:50:13 GMT
I had no idea Ivana Bacik was still on the scene, especially after Labour's implosion. She is clearly unflushable. She is the Labour leader in the Seanad, and a serial loser of elections to the Dail. However, this constituency is pretty much made for her. If she can't win here in these circumstances, or at least poll well enough to set herself up for a seat at the next General Election, she is unlikely ever to do so. I can't pretend I have ever been her greatest fan, but the idea of Irish Labour winning a byelection in what in England would be a fairly safe Tory seat is kind of fascinating.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jun 29, 2021 8:30:46 GMT
I had no idea Ivana Bacik was still on the scene, especially after Labour's implosion. She is clearly unflushable. "bouncebackability". So, what *did* happen to Irish Labour? I remember when they were part of government, with the impressive Dick Spring as leader.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 29, 2021 8:33:57 GMT
Irish Labour seems to go on thirty year cycles where it has a breakthrough, goes into government with Fine Gael, cops all the blame for the unpopular things the government did, crashes out and loses almost all of its seats, then slowly builds back up.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jun 29, 2021 8:42:50 GMT
Irish Labour seems to go on thirty year cycles where it has a breakthrough, goes into government with Fine Gael, cops all the blame for the unpopular things the government did, crashes out and loses almost all of its seats, then slowly builds back up. Hmm, where have I heard a similar story before???
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Jun 29, 2021 8:44:42 GMT
Dublin Bay South By-Election poll. If the result is anything like that, it makes Bacik favourite on transfers. This is an awful poll for Boylan and undermines the two-horse race narrative that SF were trying to push against FG. Come the byelection, I don't expect the Green voters to swing behind their coalition partners. Fianna Fail will hope to do a bit better, though I would expect them to transfer to Fine Gael. Then you remember it's Ivana Bacik, so she'll surely find a way to lose.
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Jun 29, 2021 9:05:52 GMT
Irish Labour seems to go on thirty year cycles where it has a breakthrough, goes into government with Fine Gael, cops all the blame for the unpopular things the government did, crashes out and loses almost all of its seats, then slowly builds back up. Hmm, where have I heard a similar story before??? I was just about to post much the same - you beat me to it!
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Post by greenhert on Jun 29, 2021 10:31:25 GMT
Irish Labour seems to go on thirty year cycles where it has a breakthrough, goes into government with Fine Gael, cops all the blame for the unpopular things the government did, crashes out and loses almost all of its seats, then slowly builds back up. This time, though, there is no going back for Irish Labour, due to the strength of other parties that can attract their traditional voters, not to mention the terminal decline of social-democratic parties in Europe in general due to the effects of globalisation and technological advances.
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Merseymike
Independent
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 29, 2021 10:33:18 GMT
Irish Labour seems to go on thirty year cycles where it has a breakthrough, goes into government with Fine Gael, cops all the blame for the unpopular things the government did, crashes out and loses almost all of its seats, then slowly builds back up. This time, though, there is no going back for Irish Labour, due to the strength of other parties that can attract their traditional voters, not to mention the terminal decline of social-democratic parties in Europe in general due to the effects of globalisation and technological advances. Is this a seat where they have retained their traditionally high vote? Sinn Fein seem much lower here than in many other seats
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 29, 2021 10:49:23 GMT
This time, though, there is no going back for Irish Labour, due to the strength of other parties that can attract their traditional voters, not to mention the terminal decline of social-democratic parties in Europe in general due to the effects of globalisation and technological advances. Is this a seat where they have retained their traditionally high vote? Sinn Fein seem much lower here than in many other seats It's basically Ruari Quinn's old seat, which he held from 1977 to 2016 (save in 1981) and had a solid vote. In 2011 his coattails even managed to bring in a colleague. So it's got a good Labour tradition.
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 29, 2021 11:27:35 GMT
Irish Labour seems to go on thirty year cycles where it has a breakthrough, goes into government with Fine Gael, cops all the blame for the unpopular things the government did, crashes out and loses almost all of its seats, then slowly builds back up. Hmm, where have I heard a similar story before??? Then why are you chaps so keen on alliances and an electoral system that must lead to need for coalitions? Is it because there is no other possible way to power? Or that ubiquitous coalitions might take the sting out of the taint for the junior coalition partners? I think that sting and taint will still persist and damge some or even all junior partners of any period of unpopularity in a coalition ministry.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 29, 2021 11:37:55 GMT
Is this a seat where they have retained their traditionally high vote? Sinn Fein seem much lower here than in many other seats It's basically Ruari Quinn's old seat, which he held from 1977 to 2016 (save in 1981) and had a solid vote. In 2011 his coattails even managed to bring in a colleague. So it's got a good Labour tradition. Indeed, but not in a byelection when it requires 50%+1 (or the highest vost after all the transfers are counted). Labour's highest vote in the old Dublin South-East seat (totally incorporated in this seat) was 25.8% in 1992, and Fianna Fail was still ahead in vote share for their candidates, of course, it was quite a strong Progressive Democrat area with Michael McDowell a TD. The new seat took in areas where Labour used to poll well in the former Dublin South-Central constituency. If Labour can regain votes lost to Sinn Fein, the Greens and other left-wing parties, it might bode well for their future.
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Post by seanryanj on Jun 29, 2021 12:12:40 GMT
Is this a seat where they have retained their traditionally high vote? Sinn Fein seem much lower here than in many other seats It's basically Ruari Quinn's old seat, which he held from 1977 to 2016 (save in 1981) and had a solid vote. In 2011 his coattails even managed to bring in a colleague. So it's got a good Labour tradition. It was also the home ground of Garret Fitzgerald who was a more Social Democrat FG Leader, funny when FG imploded in 2002 it was Labour who held their seat FG lost theirs.
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johnloony
Conservative
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Post by johnloony on Jun 29, 2021 12:52:00 GMT
It makes me think what sort of party system Ireland would have had if they had had FPTP throughout. Presumably the more progressive bits of FF & FG would combine with the Labour Party to form a larger version of the Labour Party on the left, and the right-wing bits of FF & FG would combine to be some sort of conservative-rural party.
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Post by greenhert on Jun 29, 2021 16:14:09 GMT
It makes me think what sort of party system Ireland would have had if they had had FPTP throughout. Presumably the more progressive bits of FF & FG would combine with the Labour Party to form a larger version of the Labour Party on the left, and the right-wing bits of FF & FG would combine to be some sort of conservative-rural party. That is likely what would have happened had Ireland switched to FPTP (referendums to move from STV to FPTP in 1959 and 1968 both failed by significant margins).
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Post by greenhert on Jun 29, 2021 16:15:02 GMT
It's basically Ruari Quinn's old seat, which he held from 1977 to 2016 (save in 1981) and had a solid vote. In 2011 his coattails even managed to bring in a colleague. So it's got a good Labour tradition. It was also the home ground of Garret Fitzgerald who was a more Social Democrat FG Leader, funny when FG imploded in 2002 it was Labour who held their seat FG lost theirs. And further back another FG Taoiseach, John Costello.
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Post by greenhert on Jun 29, 2021 16:17:36 GMT
In fact, Dublin Bay South/Dublin South East has been in total the seat of as many as eight party leaders in Ireland, including current Irish Green Party leader Eamon Ryan.
It also contains the (in)famous Dublin 4 postcode, which partly explains the above!
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