Irish elections

[greenhert]

Carlow-Kilkenny, count 1:

Kathleen Funchion (SF) 17,493 (elected)
John McGuinness (FF) 10,558
Jennifer Murnane O'Connor (FF) 9,351
Bobby Aylward (FF) 7,550
John Paul Phelan (FG) 6,396
Pat Deering (FG) 5,929
Malcolm Noonan (Green) 4,942
Patrick O'Neill (FG) 3,674
Alan Hayes (Ind) 2,347
Denis Hynes (Lab) 2,208
Adrienne Wallace (Sol-PBP) 1,558
Helena Byrne (Renua) 992
Melissa O'Neill (IFP) 431
Angela Ray (Ind) 214.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Feb 9, 2020 17:58:05 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Where do all these SF votes with no SF candidate to transfer to go?

We're about to find out, aren't we?

PS: We now pause the election for a minute so RTÉ can embarrass an entire nation which thought it might have got over that sort of thing by still showing "The Angelus".

[greenhert]

Feb 9, 2020 17:58:05 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Where do all these SF votes with no SF candidate to transfer to go?

Keep watching this page: www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/results/#/national to find out.

Some may just not transfer anywhere, of course.

[Deleted]

Sinn Fein now ahead nationally on first preference votes

[greenhert]

Cork North-Central, count 1:

Thomas Gould (SF) 13,811 (elected)
Padraig O'Sullivan (FF) 8,158
Colm Burke (FG) 6,646
Kenneth O'Flynn (Ind) 3,994
Mick Barry (Sol-PBP) 3,703
Tony Fitzgerald (FF) 3,338
Oliver Moran (Green) 3,205
John Maher (Lab) 2,561
Finian Tooney (Aontu) 1,325
Sandra Murphy (FF) 1,218
Lorraine O'Neill (FG) 1,156
Sinead Halpin (SD) 1,121
Ger Keohane (Ind) 694
Timothy Joseph Hogan (Ind) 257
Diarmaid O Cadhla (Ind) 230
James Coughlan (WP) 180
Sean O'Leary (Ind) 137
Stephen O'Donovan (Ind) 44.

[🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️]

Feb 9, 2020 18:00:07 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Feb 9, 2020 17:58:05 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Where do all these SF votes with no SF candidate to transfer to go?

We're about to find out, aren't we?

PS: We now pause the election for a minute so RTÉ can embarrass an entire nation which thought it might have got over that sort of thing by still showing "The Angelus".

Not quite my bag either, but I think it's rather sweet. Like Bells on Sunday or Thought for the Day. There are also some brilliant parodies of it on Youtube.

[greenhert]

Laois-Offaly, count 1:

Brian Stanley (SF) 16,694 (elected)
Barry Cowen (FF) 8,677
Sean Fleming (FF) 7,866
Charle Flanagan (FG) 7,463
Carol Nolan (Ind) 5,436
Marcella Corcoran Kennedy (FG) 4,519
Peter Ormond (FF) 4,073
Pippa Hackett (Green) 3,494
John Leahy (Ind) 3,463
Ken Smollen (UDP) 2,611
Noel Tuohy (Lab) 2,011
Pauline Flanagan (FF) 1,744
Stephen Tynan (Sol-PBP) 910
John Daly (WP) 441
Noel O'Rourke (Renua) 290.

[yellowperil]

I presume the most likely outcome of these elections will be a coalition between FF and FG to keep SF out of office, but this will now look less like a Grand Coalition of the Big 2 and more like a shabby stitch up between 2nd and third (in popuar vote at least) to keep the actual winners out of office. Am I alone in thinking SF knew exactly what they were doing and rather than mess up by under-representing they have done exactly what they wanted for this time? Let FF/FG take charge of the mess for the moment and make themselves even more unpopular in the near future.

[relique]

Feb 9, 2020 18:02:52 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Sinn Fein now ahead nationally on first preference votes

And that's without Donegal, Cavan Monaghan or Louth where they will be around 40% (37 to 42). I think SF will probably be the winner of the 1st preference vote.

[greenhert]

Dublin Central, count 1:

Mary Lou McDonald (SF) 11,223 (elected)
Paschal Donohoe (FG) 4,181
Neasa Hourigan (Green) 3,851
Mary Fitzpatrick (FF) 3,228
Gary Gannon (SD) 2,912
Joe Costello (Lab) 1,702
Christy Burke (Ind) 1,509
Gilian Brien (Sol-PBP) 776
Ian Noel Smyth (Aontu) 583
Deirdre Duffy (FG) 570
Eilis Ryan (WP) 429
Rita Harrold (Sol-PBP) 201
Sarah Louise Mulligan (Ind) 124
Dolores Webster (Ind) 101
Patrick Clohessy (Ind) 33
Sean O'Leary (Ind) 12.

[Deleted]

Feb 9, 2020 18:10:31 GMT yellowperil said:

I presume the most likely outcome of these elections will be a coalition between FF and FG to keep SF out of office, but this will now look less like a Grand Coalition of the Big 2 and more like a shabby stitch up between 2nd and third (in popuar vote at least) to keep the actual winners out of office. Am I alone in thinking SF knew exactly what they were doing and rather than mess up by under-representing they have done exactly what they wanted for this time? Let FF/FG take charge of the mess for the moment and make themselves even more unpopular in the near future.

That seems like too big a gamble. This could be a flash in the pan rather than a major long-term shift. Plus, all the indicators until quite recently were that they would collapse, so at the time they were nominating they probably thought they'd nominated a sensible number.

[relique]

Mark Ward (SF), reelected with the surplus from Eoin o Broin. A little more than 700 votes as a surplus for Ward now. SF surplus mostly went (when not to SF) to S-PBPA Gino Kenny who might get a few hundreds more.

[yellowperil]

Has anyone thought how these results would have turned out with a FPTP election, UK style? Would there have been an absolute landslide Sinn Fein victory?

[relique]

Feb 9, 2020 18:26:59 GMT yellowperil said:

Has anyone thought how these results would have turned out with a FPTP election, UK style? Would there have been an absolute landslide Sinn Fein victory?

I heard in RTE 18 constituencies where SF topped the poll but I don't know if it's the party or the candidate.

Edit:

For now its:

Fine Gael: 5

Fianna Fail: 6

Sinn Féin: 8

where the party has a plurality of votes.

[chorleyboy]

Feb 9, 2020 18:26:59 GMT yellowperil said:

Has anyone thought how these results would have turned out with a FPTP election, UK style? Would there have been an absolute landslide Sinn Fein victory?

No, because they are only winning all the early seats as has been said, they have under nominated. Under FPTP they would still struggle to get 30% of the vote.

[greenhert]

Re: the question about surplus SF votes from @europeanlefty:

In Cork South-Central on the second count, Solidarity-PBP and the Green Party were the largest beneficiaries from the transferable surplus first preference votes of Donnchadh O Laoghaire (Bobby Walsh and Lorna Bogue received 596 and 408 of that transferable surplus).

[edgbaston]

Feb 9, 2020 18:10:31 GMT yellowperil said:

I presume the most likely outcome of these elections will be a coalition between FF and FG to keep SF out of office, but this will now look less like a Grand Coalition of the Big 2 and more like a shabby stitch up between 2nd and third (in popuar vote at least) to keep the actual winners out of office. Am I alone in thinking SF knew exactly what they were doing and rather than mess up by under-representing they have done exactly what they wanted for this time? Let FF/FG take charge of the mess for the moment and make themselves even more unpopular in the near future.

I like this little conspiracy theory, just look at some of their first preference leads!

[heslingtonian]

Is there any chance that Sinn Fein + Greens + Labour + Social Democrats + People Before Profit + Independents could get enough TDs to have a majority and form an administration?

[greenhert]

Dublin South-West, count 1:

Sean Crowe (SF) 20,077 (elected)
Colm Brophy (FG) 8,269
John Lahart (FF) 5,503
Francis Noel Duffy (Green) 4,961
Paul Murphy (Sol-PBP) 4,477
Katherine Zappone (Ind) 3,708
Ciaran Ahern (Lab) 3,603
Charlie O'Connor (FF) 3,376
Deirdre O'Donovan (FF) 3,314
Ellen O'Malley Dunlop (FG) 3,111
Carly Bailey (SD) 2,761
Sandra Fay (Sol-PBP) 1,653
Mick Duff (Ind) 1,268
Anne Marie Condren (Renua) 886
Philip Dwyer (WP) 508
Colm O'Keefe (Ind) 90.

[right]

In how many constituencies did Sinn Fein not come first? I think I've seen two (Varadkar's and another one).