By -election 17th May 2018

[Tony Otim]

And we're back after the May election with 4 potentially interesting by-elections, 3 in Lancaster and 1 in Suffolk (with some great candidate names).
Some points of interest in Lancaster - Labour need to hold all 3 seats to retain majority control of the council. Will any candidate in University and Scotforth Rural manage to get into triple figures.

LANCASTER BC, Skerton West (Labour died)
Candidates:
KAY, Andy (Conservative)
KAYE, Derek John (Liberal Democrats)
RIVET, Peter Leo (Labour)
SINCLAIR, Cait (Green)

Sept 17 by: Lab 512; Con 288; LD 33
2015: Lab 1481, 1331, 1241; Con 1037; UKIP 816; Grn 380, 360; Ind 295.



LANCASTER BC, University & Scotforth Rural (2 seat – Labour and Green sitting as Labour resigned)
Candidates:
BETTS-PATEL, Amara Rushni (Labour)
EMBREY, Iain Peter (Liberal Democrats)
FURNER, Callum James (Conservative)
MASKELL, Janet Louise (Green Second Choice Candidate)
PALEY, Martin Christopher (Green First Choice Candidate)
ROBINSON, Oliver Anthony (Labour)
SULLIVAN, Jade (Liberal Democrats)
WATTS, Guy Fraser Purves (Conservative)

Dec 16 by: Lab 98; Grn 79; Con 68; LD 36 (Yes those figures are accurate)
2015: Lab 605, 500, 480; Grn 555, 440, 417; Con 405, 391, 339; LD 143, 79, 66



SUFFOLK COASTAL DC, Leiston (Conservative resigned)
Candidates:
BETSON, Sammy (Independent)
CASAGRANDE, Freda Jeanette Maria (Labour)
EWART, Jules (Liberal Democrats)
GREATER, Susan Margaret (Conservative)

2015: Ind 918, 505; Con 887, 845; Lab 691, 619; Grn 320, 309; LD 264, 162
(The victorious independent was an incumbent from the previous 3-seat Leiston ward).

[timmullen1]

Here’s Andrew: britainelects.com/2018/05/16/previews-17-may-2018/

[froome]

Andrew's preview is, as ever, an excellent read. There are certainly some interesting issues that he notes which arise from a ward where the student population is so dominant, and are probably worth following up, perhaps in a separate thread. However, it would be interesting to know how many wards there are around the country where, if the student population did actually all register they would form the majority of electors, and then if voted would certainly determine the result.

Some great names of candidates as well. Skerton West should be a riveting contest with confusion sown between the Kays.

[greenhert]

froome, students would form the majority of electors in Carfax and Holywell wards in Oxford if they all registered, and also Market, Newnham, and Romsey wards in Cambridge.

[Pete Whitehead]

alasdairross.blogspot.co.uk/2010/08/leiston-suffolks-little-moscow.html

[East Anglian Lefty]

May 16, 2018 20:52:14 GMT greenhert said:

froome, students would form the majority of electors in Carfax and Holywell wards in Oxford if they all registered, and also Market, Newnham, and Romsey wards in Cambridge.

18.28% at the last census, so no. I think you mean Castle.

These days I think students actually are the majority of the electorate in Market (and probably the other two wards), just not the majority of local election voters.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Leiston is counting in the morning.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

[Davıd Boothroyd]

[jamesgroves]

I'm told . . .

University & Scotforth Rural ward
Betts-Patel (Lab) 518
Embrey (LD) 114
Furner (Con) 184
Maskell (Green 2nd choice) 235
Paley (Green 1st choice) 264
Robinson (Lab) 423
Sullivan (LD) 120
Watts (Con) 184
Spoilt 21
T/O 27%

Delay due to it being a count for 2 seats via the "grass skirt" method I believe, which took a while.

J

[jamesgroves]

Slight adjustment:

University & Scotforth Rural ward
Electorate 3824
Turnout 1033 (27.01%)
Betts-Patel (Lab) 518
Embrey (LD) 114
Furner (Con) 184
Maskell (Green 2nd choice) 235
Paley (Green 1st choice) 264
Robinson (Lab) 423
Sullivan (LD) 120
Watts (Con) 184
Unused votes (the voter used just 1 of their 2 votes) 18
Spoilt papers (blank or void for uncertainty) 3

Note the precise tallying: 1033 papers, minus 3 spoils gives 1030, and 518+114+184+235+264+423+120+184+18=2060 which is twice 1030.

J

[andrewp]

That’s a better turnout in University, I wasn’t expecting more than 200 for the winner.

[Deleted]

May 18, 2018 6:16:19 GMT andrewp said:

That’s a better turnout in University, I wasn’t expecting more than 200 for the winner.

Divide by two, though.

[johnloony]

May 18, 2018 6:21:34 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

May 18, 2018 6:16:19 GMT andrewp said:

That’s a better turnout in University, I wasn’t expecting more than 200 for the winner.

Divide by two, though.

Divide what by two? And why?

[andrewp]

May 18, 2018 6:29:44 GMT johnloony said:

May 18, 2018 6:21:34 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

Divide by two, though.

Divide what by two? And why?

27% turnout. I was expecting 10-15%. Students will be doing exams/ revision. And no need to divide by two.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Votes in University and Scotforth Rural on the averages method:

Lab 46.1
GP 24.4
C 18.0
L Dem 11.5

[beastofbedfordshire]

It's these young, trendy, uni towns (Lancaster, Chester, York etc...) where we will continue to struggle in.

[ColinJ]

Perhaps in my will I should leave a bequest towards the foundation of the University of Mansfield and the University College of Ashfield.........

[samdwebber]

Leiston started counting at 9am apparently

[Deleted]

May 18, 2018 8:32:58 GMT beastofbedfordshire said:

It's these young, trendy, uni towns (Lancaster, Chester, York etc...) where we will continue to struggle in.

all seats you gained in 2010