Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,160
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jun 15, 2018 9:13:30 GMT
Galloway and UKIP might be more unusual cases though the latter seem to replace the Lib Dems as the party of by elections during 2010-2015. Albeit without actually winning any, other than the special case of D Carswell holding his seat when standing under new colours.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 15, 2018 9:15:05 GMT
Galloway and UKIP might be more unusual cases though the latter seem to replace the Lib Dems as the party of by elections during 2010-2015. Albeit without actually winning any, other than the special case of D Carswell holding his seat when standing under new colours. And Reckless (how soon we forget).
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 15, 2018 9:23:12 GMT
Low interest, low poll damp squib result. Nothing to see. Move along.
This is an indicator of just about nothing. Fair result for Labour from an adroitly managed low key campaign in difficult times. Usual LD hype leading to not very much really because they could not engage enough interest to get many out to the polls. Conservatives fell back as probably some mistakenly opted to vote LD in vain home of damage to Labour. Always a silly policy for a Conservative under any circumstances. The rest is dross and not worth looking at.
The Swing is between Labour and Conservative for what it is worth which in this case is not very much. The other secondary swings on this TO at a boring by-election are meaningless to useless.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 15, 2018 9:33:25 GMT
Galloway and UKIP might be more unusual cases though the latter seem to replace the Lib Dems as the party of by elections during 2010-2015. Albeit without actually winning any, other than the special case of D Carswell holding his seat when standing under new colours. Mark Reckless?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,516
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 15, 2018 9:36:01 GMT
Most boring result possible zzzz... I see your "most boring" and raise it very significantly with Ogmore! The most boring by-election of my political lifetime is and will likely remain Knowsley S in 1990. Very similar turnout to last night as it happens.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 15, 2018 9:47:16 GMT
getting carried away
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 15, 2018 9:51:19 GMT
She is right about Hornsby.....Absolutely sitter for the LDs along with other phantasy seats in her phantasy mind.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 15, 2018 9:52:18 GMT
Before I even clicked on the link, I just knew they'd be of the '#FBPE' crowd.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,516
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 15, 2018 9:52:31 GMT
We're seeing that in a few posts here, albeit in a milder form Truth is, the LibDems have no future as the political wing of the (increasingly deranged) FBPE cult. If this result convinces them otherwise, it will be to their disbenefit.
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Post by justin124 on Jun 15, 2018 9:56:43 GMT
Low interest, low poll damp squib result. Nothing to see. Move along. This is an indicator of just about nothing. Fair result for Labour from an adroitly managed low key campaign in difficult times. Usual LD hype leading to not very much really because they could not engage enough interest to get many out to the polls. Conservatives fell back as probably some mistakenly opted to vote LD in vain home of damage to Labour. Always a silly policy for a Conservative under any circumstances. The rest is dross and not worth looking at. The Swing is between Labour and Conservative for what it is worth which in this case is not very much. The other secondary swings on this TO at a boring by-election are meaningless to useless. I agree with that. The low turnout also confirmed my view that most people are sick to death of Brexit as an issue. If voters were really agitated they would have taken the trouble to vote - particularly when the LibDems made it the focus of their campaign.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,516
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 15, 2018 10:01:44 GMT
In this by-election the local Lib Dems are evidently of the opinion that it could be close, and appear to be telling on every polling station. Labour perhaps do not. As Yellow Peril pointed out, even to be close requires "the mother of all swings", so it is improbable, but Lib Dem activists do love by-elections But it wasn't really, in the end. All the talk of "swing" shouldn't obscure that Labour still beat the LibDems by over 2 to 1 at the end of the day. (which remains some way short of the 2010 result you mentioned previously)
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Jun 15, 2018 10:14:46 GMT
I think the take away from our point of view is that it's another small step in the direction of a recovery. As others have noted we weren't really close to winning but getting a ~20% swing from the opposition party is a good result and should be viewed in the context of the 2010-15 by-elections. We're on the way back to being relevant in UK politics, but it's going to be a long road, and this is only one step.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,516
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 15, 2018 10:19:25 GMT
I think the take away from our point of view is that it's another small step in the direction of a recovery. As others have noted we weren't really close to winning but getting a ~20% swing from the opposition party is a good result and should be viewed in the context of the 2010-15 by-elections. We're on the way back to being relevant in UK politics, but it's going to be a long road, and this is only one step. Now, that is a sensible and fair assessment.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 15, 2018 10:19:53 GMT
Low interest, low poll damp squib result. Nothing to see. Move along. This is an indicator of just about nothing. Fair result for Labour from an adroitly managed low key campaign in difficult times. Usual LD hype leading to not very much really because they could not engage enough interest to get many out to the polls. Conservatives fell back as probably some mistakenly opted to vote LD in vain home of damage to Labour. Always a silly policy for a Conservative under any circumstances. The rest is dross and not worth looking at. The Swing is between Labour and Conservative for what it is worth which in this case is not very much. The other secondary swings on this TO at a boring by-election are meaningless to useless. I agree with that. The low turnout also confirmed my view that most people are sick to death of Brexit as an issue. If voters were really agitated they would have taken the trouble to vote - particularly when the LibDems made it the focus of their campaign. The result is good enough to encourage the Lib Dems to continue on their delusional and self-defeating path to nowhere, which is fine by me. A fair proportion of the political class remains obsessed with Brexit *, but the wider electorate has switched off. They may not be impressed with the Government's handling of the issue, to the extent that they have formed an impression of the depressing soap opera at Westminster, but they can see that Brexit is a done deal and there will be no going back. They may not understand the details, but they can grasp that the Conservatives have now staked their credibility on delivering ...something. At the same time, Labour's endless, aimless, fan dance - and Corbyn's ultimate veto on any meaningful opposition to the principle of leaving the EU - means that nothing will happen to prevent it from that quarter. Nothing else matters. *ADDENDUM along with their few hundred thousand Twitter-obsessed and petition-signing groupies
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 15, 2018 10:22:04 GMT
I think the take away from our point of view is that it's another small step in the direction of a recovery. As others have noted we weren't really close to winning but getting a ~20% swing from the opposition party is a good result and should be viewed in the context of the 2010-15 by-elections. We're on the way back to being relevant in UK politics, but it's going to be a long road, and this is only one step. What do you mean by relevant? You have a very distinctive pro-EU and anti-Brexit stance. That is already very relevant. It just doesn't seem to be very popular even with those of that persuasion, probably because there is more to life and thought than Brexit? Do you really mean engagement leading to a large mass vote and many more seats? That might be on the back of your one true friend 'Mr Protest Vote' which has nothing at all to do with being relevant but more to being dustbin-shaped. I have good news.....You are relevant. And bad news......You are still not popular.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,516
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 15, 2018 10:25:04 GMT
And the LibDems had a strong candidate, which has some significance in contests like this. Less so at a GE when "generic" voting moves much more to the fore.
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Post by Rutlander on Jun 15, 2018 10:25:15 GMT
The wider electorate are - for now - bored with Brexit, I agree. But in a couple of years when they see it as a mistake (as I strongly suspect they will), they will remember the Tories owned it, the LibDems opposed it and that Labour was missing. Then the LibDems will reap the rewards.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,516
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 15, 2018 10:27:08 GMT
The wider electorate are - for now - bored with Brexit, I agree. But in a couple of years when they see it as a mistake (as I strongly suspect they will), they will remember the Tories owned it, the LibDems opposed it and that Labour was missing. Then the LibDems will reap the rewards. This is exactly the sort of delusionality I was referring to. Politics doesn't work like that in reality, however much we may sometimes think it "should".
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 15, 2018 10:27:34 GMT
The wider electorate are - for now - bored with Brexit, I agree. But in a couple of years when they see it as a mistake (as I strongly suspect they will), they will remember the Tories owned it, the LibDems opposed it and that Labour was missing. Then the LibDems will reap the rewards. No they won't. Each party will mutate to suit the new circumstances and the LDs will miss out as usual.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 15, 2018 10:27:47 GMT
I'd rather belong to a political party that's relevant but not popular than belong to a popular party whose principles I disagree with. There are only two parties larger than the Liberal Democrats, and I don't think you have to be someone who focuses on ultra-niche issues to not support either of those two.
Of course, there are many people who couldn't stomach voting for the Conservatives or Labour who couldn't stomach voting for the Liberal Democrats either. I don't deny that.
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