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Post by AdminSTB on Jun 2, 2018 17:10:13 GMT
Correction : Anne-Marie leaflets have been sighted today.
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Post by johnloony on Jun 2, 2018 17:11:49 GMT
But what did you predict would be the smallest majority in the 2017 General Election? Otherwise we will have to conclude it was just luck.. In 2017 I made no such prediction. The success of my prediction in 1992 was just a coincidence, not even luck. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 2, 2018 17:15:05 GMT
In 1992 I predicted that the smallest majority in the country would be 19 (and it was - in Vale of Glamorgan). My method was simply to average the smallest majorities from the previous several general elections. Interesting method, I hadn't thought of that. (I can remember one of my predictions from 1997, which was a Labour majority of 17,089 in Salford and the actual result was 17,069. A total waste of brainpower to still be able to remember that). Do you still have your full list? It would be interesting to see what your most inaccurate predictions were. And what did you predict to be the total seats for each party? |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2018 17:24:12 GMT
Correction : Anne-Marie leaflets have been sighted today. The Fhürr Britain Partei are very vocal on YouTube and Twitter. This doesn't suggest a huge surge of undiscovered support though it could point to why there's been a lack of leaflets. Expenses don't cover YouTube uploads I guess? |
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 2, 2018 17:28:30 GMT
The chance that local election results in Lambeth affect a Parliamentary by-election in Lewisham seems even more fanciful... Are you predicting the Greens will come second in Lewisham E on the basis of their gains in Lambeth? Why not pick Haringey, Richmond, Kingston or Sutton as your benchmark? Or Barking and Dagenham where the Lib Dems did not put up any candidates as far as I can see!
Regarding Lewisham East, the Tories did quite well in Grove Park, but in the runner up races everywhere else were beaten by the Lib Dems or Greens in several wards. If the Lib Dems capture a good part of the Green vote (which is very likely due to vastly greater effort) and get some more votes off Labour in places where they did nothing in the locals they will be ahead of the Tories on local election results (which still will not mean much!)
no I suspect many local greens voted labour in 2017 and may vote labour again Yes, I agree completely, the 2015 Green vote went Labour here in 2017. It is these people who change their vote from election to election that are the first to change their vote when a by-election comes along, I suspect. Eating into the loyal vote is much harder. That is why I expect the Labour vote to fall to something like 2010 levels, especially given the difficulty of getting the Labour vote out in a by-election.. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 2, 2018 17:32:46 GMT
Correction : Anne-Marie leaflets have been sighted today. Somehow that trident always reminds me of Heironymous Bosch! |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2018 17:46:30 GMT
Correction : Anne-Marie leaflets have been sighted today. Somehow that trident always reminds me of Heironymous Bosch! The trident could suggest that they are all at sea. |
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Post by justin124 on Jun 2, 2018 18:49:51 GMT
I strongly disagree with the widely held view that Corbyn's relative success in 2017 was much influenced by Brexit. Although it was Theresa May's justification for calling the election out of the blue, in reality it was not really a Brexit election at all . It was far too technical an issue for most voters, and Corbyn did well by managing to change the subject of the campaign . He was able to connect by raising issues which really did strike a chord with people. Moreover, I am convinced that the big variations in Labour's performance across the country owed far more to the attitudes of traditional working class voters towards Corbyn than to the Brexit issue itself. I accept that it might have featured more prominently in some parts of London. In Ashcroft's big poll straight after the referendum, 63% of 2015 Labour voters voted Remain, and 42% of 2015 Tory voters. In the latest Yougov poll those figures are 70% and 26%. Leave and Remain consolidated a great deal into Brexit camps as the UKIP vote collapsed in the 2017 General Election.
In the election Theresa talked exclusively about Brexit (ok, there was dementia tax as well!) and voters coalesced around Labour to stop her getting a majority. Here in Yorkshire I met many voters who voted tactically for Labour to stop a Tory landslide, not just in Dewsbury and Batley and Spen which were predicted to go Tory at the start of the campaign, but even in Huddersfield. I know a Lib Dem member who seriously thought Barry Sheerman was going to lose, and I could not persuade him otherwise. My son, his partner, and my daughter all voted Labour, but none of them have any love for Corbyn and they all thought he would break most of his promises if he got in. In a two horse race, people vote for one or other of the horses, but most people did not actually expect Labour to win, so they paid more attention to the Tory programme (hard Brexit and the dementia tax) than Labour's..
But for weeks before Polling Day on June 8th last year the media and campaign focus had moved way beyond Brexit - which did not figure prominently in key events such as the Leader Debates etc.The Dementia Tax - Austerity - and the terrorist attacks were far more important as were the campaign performances of the Leaders. I have absolutely no doubt at all that Corbyn was a Marmite figure who repelled many traditional working class white voters. From my own family I can identify five life long Labour voters who voted Tory for the first time in 2017 - some were Leave voters but others had voted Remain! They simply did not trust Corbyn on account of his views on Defence and National Security - and had little confidence in his leadership abilities.Brexit,however, meant little to them. As far as fears of a Tory landslide were concerned, that was not what most polls were predicting in the last week of the campaign - with many showing Tory leads of no more than 4% or 5% and serious suggestions of the possibility of a Hung Parliament.Moreover the sharp drop in the Tory lead was widely covered in the media. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2018 18:53:28 GMT
no I suspect many local greens voted labour in 2017 and may vote labour again Yes, I agree completely, the 2015 Green vote went Labour here in 2017. It is these people who change their vote from election to election that are the first to change their vote when a by-election comes along, I suspect. Eating into the loyal vote is much harder. That is why I expect the Labour vote to fall to something like 2010 levels, especially given the difficulty of getting the Labour vote out in a by-election.. I don't expect it to be at the 40% mark. Labour's GOTV operation is pretty effective and the opposition is pretty fractured. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 2, 2018 21:37:28 GMT
In Ashcroft's big poll straight after the referendum, 63% of 2015 Labour voters voted Remain, and 42% of 2015 Tory voters. In the latest Yougov poll those figures are 70% and 26%. Leave and Remain consolidated a great deal into Brexit camps as the UKIP vote collapsed in the 2017 General Election.
In the election Theresa talked exclusively about Brexit (ok, there was dementia tax as well!) and voters coalesced around Labour to stop her getting a majority. Here in Yorkshire I met many voters who voted tactically for Labour to stop a Tory landslide, not just in Dewsbury and Batley and Spen which were predicted to go Tory at the start of the campaign, but even in Huddersfield. I know a Lib Dem member who seriously thought Barry Sheerman was going to lose, and I could not persuade him otherwise. My son, his partner, and my daughter all voted Labour, but none of them have any love for Corbyn and they all thought he would break most of his promises if he got in. In a two horse race, people vote for one or other of the horses, but most people did not actually expect Labour to win, so they paid more attention to the Tory programme (hard Brexit and the dementia tax) than Labour's..
But for weeks before Polling Day on June 8th last year the media and campaign focus had moved way beyond Brexit - which did not figure prominently in key events such as the Leader Debates etc.The Dementia Tax - Austerity - and the terrorist attacks were far more important as were the campaign performances of the Leaders. I have absolutely no doubt at all that Corbyn was a Marmite figure who repelled many traditional working class white voters. From my own family I can identify five life long Labour voters who voted Tory for the first time in 2017 - some were Leave voters but others had voted Remain! They simply did not trust Corbyn on account of his views on Defence and National Security - and had little confidence in his leadership abilities.Brexit,however, meant little to them. As far as fears of a Tory landslide were concerned, that was not what most polls were predicting in the last week of the campaign - with many showing Tory leads of no more than 4% or 5% and serious suggestions of the possibility of a Hung Parliament.Moreover the sharp drop in the Tory lead was widely covered in the media. Yes, but the people who feared a Tory landslide at the beginning of the campaign backed the Labour horse, which then started coming up on the rails. It is a big myth among party activists that people vote for rational reasons. They join a tribe and stick with it if it looks to be doing better vs the other tribe. And if the other tribe makes some big obvious mistakes like dementia tax and has a Leader who seems unfeeling, inflexible and generally useless, then they take votes off them in the campaign. The thing that was very noticeable was that the swings were regional and very little affected by the intensity of the campaign in neighbouring seats - for example the swing to Labour was only 1% more in Colne Valley than in Huddersfield.
In by-elections things are very different and this herd mentality can go wild if people scent an upset, as seen many times in the past. Labour have learned from bitter experience to keep campaigns as short as possible...
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2018 21:43:32 GMT
A prediction of sorts, from me.
*drum roll*
Only Labour will get 5-figures at this by-election.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2018 21:48:08 GMT
In Ashcroft's big poll straight after the referendum, 63% of 2015 Labour voters voted Remain, and 42% of 2015 Tory voters. In the latest Yougov poll those figures are 70% and 26%. Leave and Remain consolidated a great deal into Brexit camps as the UKIP vote collapsed in the 2017 General Election.
In the election Theresa talked exclusively about Brexit (ok, there was dementia tax as well!) and voters coalesced around Labour to stop her getting a majority. Here in Yorkshire I met many voters who voted tactically for Labour to stop a Tory landslide, not just in Dewsbury and Batley and Spen which were predicted to go Tory at the start of the campaign, but even in Huddersfield. I know a Lib Dem member who seriously thought Barry Sheerman was going to lose, and I could not persuade him otherwise. My son, his partner, and my daughter all voted Labour, but none of them have any love for Corbyn and they all thought he would break most of his promises if he got in. In a two horse race, people vote for one or other of the horses, but most people did not actually expect Labour to win, so they paid more attention to the Tory programme (hard Brexit and the dementia tax) than Labour's..
But for weeks before Polling Day on June 8th last year the media and campaign focus had moved way beyond Brexit - which did not figure prominently in key events such as the Leader Debates etc.The Dementia Tax - Austerity - and the terrorist attacks were far more important as were the campaign performances of the Leaders. I have absolutely no doubt at all that Corbyn was a Marmite figure who repelled many traditional working class white voters. From my own family I can identify five life long Labour voters who voted Tory for the first time in 2017 - some were Leave voters but others had voted Remain! They simply did not trust Corbyn on account of his views on Defence and National Security - and had little confidence in his leadership abilities.Brexit,however, meant little to them. As far as fears of a Tory landslide were concerned, that was not what most polls were predicting in the last week of the campaign - with many showing Tory leads of no more than 4% or 5% and serious suggestions of the possibility of a Hung Parliament.Moreover the sharp drop in the Tory lead was widely covered in the media. you'd be amazed how many voters we spoke to who switched from the Tories when they heard the cuts in police numbers and border security. Tbf I was amazed at how many people I knew were voting Labour for the first time ever or for the first time since 2005 |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2018 21:51:06 GMT
In Ashcroft's big poll straight after the referendum, 63% of 2015 Labour voters voted Remain, and 42% of 2015 Tory voters. In the latest Yougov poll those figures are 70% and 26%. Leave and Remain consolidated a great deal into Brexit camps as the UKIP vote collapsed in the 2017 General Election.
In the election Theresa talked exclusively about Brexit (ok, there was dementia tax as well!) and voters coalesced around Labour to stop her getting a majority. Here in Yorkshire I met many voters who voted tactically for Labour to stop a Tory landslide, not just in Dewsbury and Batley and Spen which were predicted to go Tory at the start of the campaign, but even in Huddersfield. I know a Lib Dem member who seriously thought Barry Sheerman was going to lose, and I could not persuade him otherwise. My son, his partner, and my daughter all voted Labour, but none of them have any love for Corbyn and they all thought he would break most of his promises if he got in. In a two horse race, people vote for one or other of the horses, but most people did not actually expect Labour to win, so they paid more attention to the Tory programme (hard Brexit and the dementia tax) than Labour's..
But for weeks before Polling Day on June 8th last year the media and campaign focus had moved way beyond Brexit - which did not figure prominently in key events such as the Leader Debates etc.The Dementia Tax - Austerity - and the terrorist attacks were far more important as were the campaign performances of the Leaders. I have absolutely no doubt at all that Corbyn was a Marmite figure who repelled many traditional working class white voters. From my own family I can identify five life long Labour voters who voted Tory for the first time in 2017 - some were Leave voters but others had voted Remain! They simply did not trust Corbyn on account of his views on Defence and National Security - and had little confidence in his leadership abilities.Brexit,however, meant little to them. As far as fears of a Tory landslide were concerned, that was not what most polls were predicting in the last week of the campaign - with many showing Tory leads of no more than 4% or 5% and serious suggestions of the possibility of a Hung Parliament.Moreover the sharp drop in the Tory lead was widely covered in the media. the average poll lead was 6% with Labour on 36% and Tories on 42%. The average seat model had a Tory majority of 60 though. |
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Post by greenchristian on Jun 2, 2018 23:25:02 GMT
A prediction of sorts, from me. *drum roll* Only Labour will get 5-figures at this by-election. So you're predicting Labour to be on 10,000 and the Lib Dems on 9,999?  |
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Post by justin124 on Jun 2, 2018 23:54:09 GMT
But for weeks before Polling Day on June 8th last year the media and campaign focus had moved way beyond Brexit - which did not figure prominently in key events such as the Leader Debates etc.The Dementia Tax - Austerity - and the terrorist attacks were far more important as were the campaign performances of the Leaders. I have absolutely no doubt at all that Corbyn was a Marmite figure who repelled many traditional working class white voters. From my own family I can identify five life long Labour voters who voted Tory for the first time in 2017 - some were Leave voters but others had voted Remain! They simply did not trust Corbyn on account of his views on Defence and National Security - and had little confidence in his leadership abilities.Brexit,however, meant little to them. As far as fears of a Tory landslide were concerned, that was not what most polls were predicting in the last week of the campaign - with many showing Tory leads of no more than 4% or 5% and serious suggestions of the possibility of a Hung Parliament.Moreover the sharp drop in the Tory lead was widely covered in the media. the average poll lead was 6% with Labour on 36% and Tories on 42%. The average seat model had a Tory majority of 60 though. A 6% Tory lead did represent a tiny swing to Labour across GB as a whole when compared to 2015. Factor in the fact that the Tories were surging in Scotland, such polls implied a somewhat bigger swing to Labour in England & Wales! |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 3, 2018 8:18:04 GMT
the average poll lead was 6% with Labour on 36% and Tories on 42%. The average seat model had a Tory majority of 60 though. A 6% Tory lead did represent a tiny swing to Labour across GB as a whole when compared to 2015. Factor in the fact that the Tories were surging in Scotland, such polls implied a somewhat bigger swing to Labour in England & Wales! tbf there was a very small swing to Labour in 2015 which obviously wasnt coming from Scotland |
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Post by ftmu on Jun 3, 2018 19:21:48 GMT
So - will For Britain's Anne Marie Valterz beat the UKIP candidate? I'd say no from my two short visits. The Kippers have had least done a free post and some leafleting. Nothing has yet to be tracked for either Für Ann-Marie or the Donkeys & Veterans. Given the UKIP candidate and the demographics, I'd expect UKIP to beat the other two but they can forget their deposit. Surely it all depends on what horrors emerge in the next couple of weeks about the Kippers / Donkeys & Virgins / Für Ann-Marie parties ? |
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 3, 2018 23:25:06 GMT
A prediction of sorts, from me. *drum roll* Only Labour will get 5-figures at this by-election. So you're predicting Labour to be on 10,000 and the Lib Dems on 9,999? With one added to the Labour vote after a coin toss? |
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 4, 2018 9:06:11 GMT
Wrong again! Green activists maybe, who are 1% of Green voters Here in Norwich support for the Greens has fallen back significantly since Corbyn became leader with many former discontented left of centre voters switching back to Labour - indeed next year they are at risk of losing all their seats on the City Council.. I accept that the allegiance of the residual Green vote is rather less predictable in that many vote for them as a NOTA option - something which has also helped UKIP and - until the Coalition period - the LibDems. Nevertheless I would be surprised to see such voters swing on any great scale to the LibDems given that quite a lot of Green support will have been built on disillusionment with the latter. Just a minor correction - the Greens aren't at risk of losing all their seats in Norwich next year because the last one was elected in 2016 so we're only defending 4 out of 5 of the remaining seats next year and slow, excruciating death throes will be extended another year. In the case of Norwich I'm not sure it's all down to Corbyn. Norwich Green party seem to have contributed to their own undoing to some extent. |
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Post by justin124 on Jun 4, 2018 10:34:49 GMT
Here in Norwich support for the Greens has fallen back significantly since Corbyn became leader with many former discontented left of centre voters switching back to Labour - indeed next year they are at risk of losing all their seats on the City Council.. I accept that the allegiance of the residual Green vote is rather less predictable in that many vote for them as a NOTA option - something which has also helped UKIP and - until the Coalition period - the LibDems. Nevertheless I would be surprised to see such voters swing on any great scale to the LibDems given that quite a lot of Green support will have been built on disillusionment with the latter. Just a minor correction - the Greens aren't at risk of losing all their seats in Norwich next year because the last one was elected in 2016 so we're only defending 4 out of 5 of the remaining seats next year and slow, excruciating death throes will be extended another year. In the case of Norwich I'm not sure it's all down to Corbyn. Norwich Green party seem to have contributed to their own undoing to some extent. Well as it happens - because of a Boundary Review -the entire Council will face re-election next May so that councillors elected last month will only have served one year .Of course, whilst all remaining Green councillors will be at risk they also have an opportunity to recover some of the ground lost in recent years! |
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