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Post by justin124 on Jun 2, 2018 12:42:45 GMT
if the Lib Dems were making moves in Lambeth we'd surely have seen it in May? Instead there was little movement The chance that local election results in Lambeth affect a Parliamentary by-election in Lewisham seems even more fanciful... Are you predicting the Greens will come second in Lewisham E on the basis of their gains in Lambeth? Why not pick Haringey, Richmond, Kingston or Sutton as your benchmark? Or Barking and Dagenham where the Lib Dems did not put up any candidates as far as I can see! Regarding Lewisham East, the Tories did quite well in Grove Park, but in the runner up races everywhere else were beaten by the Lib Dems or Greens in several wards. If the Lib Dems capture a good part of the Green vote (which is very likely due to vastly greater effort) and get some more votes off Labour in places where they did nothing in the locals they will be ahead of the Tories on local election results (which still will not mean much!)
Green voters are surely more likely to vote Labour than for the 'Tories ' little helpers'! |
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 2, 2018 12:48:00 GMT
The chance that local election results in Lambeth affect a Parliamentary by-election in Lewisham seems even more fanciful... Are you predicting the Greens will come second in Lewisham E on the basis of their gains in Lambeth? Why not pick Haringey, Richmond, Kingston or Sutton as your benchmark? Or Barking and Dagenham where the Lib Dems did not put up any candidates as far as I can see! Regarding Lewisham East, the Tories did quite well in Grove Park, but in the runner up races everywhere else were beaten by the Lib Dems or Greens in several wards. If the Lib Dems capture a good part of the Green vote (which is very likely due to vastly greater effort) and get some more votes off Labour in places where they did nothing in the locals they will be ahead of the Tories on local election results (which still will not mean much!)
Green voters are surely more likely to vote Labour than for the 'Tories ' little helpers'! Wrong again! Green activists maybe, who are 1% of Green voters |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 2, 2018 12:49:51 GMT
I will do. At the 1997 election I predicted the majority for every constituency and felt very pleased with myself that one or two of them were within 10 or so votes of the actual result. Of course with 659 constituencies it was inevitable that would happen. In 1992 I predicted that the smallest majority in the country would be 19 (and it was - in Vale of Glamorgan). My method was simply to average the smallest majorities from the previous several general elections. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 2, 2018 12:59:32 GMT
I will do. At the 1997 election I predicted the majority for every constituency and felt very pleased with myself that one or two of them were within 10 or so votes of the actual result. Of course with 659 constituencies it was inevitable that would happen. In 1992 I predicted that the smallest majority in the country would be 19 (and it was - in Vale of Glamorgan). My method was simply to average the smallest majorities from the previous several general elections. But what did you predict would be the smallest majority in the 2017 General Election? Otherwise we will have to conclude it was just luck..
I would be impressed if you predicted the Vale would have the smallest majority in a huge swing election like 1997 though (but note you did not say that...)
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Post by justin124 on Jun 2, 2018 13:02:58 GMT
Green voters are surely more likely to vote Labour than for the 'Tories ' little helpers'! Wrong again! Green activists maybe, who are 1% of Green voters Here in Norwich support for the Greens has fallen back significantly since Corbyn became leader with many former discontented left of centre voters switching back to Labour - indeed next year they are at risk of losing all their seats on the City Council.. I accept that the allegiance of the residual Green vote is rather less predictable in that many vote for them as a NOTA option - something which has also helped UKIP and - until the Coalition period - the LibDems. Nevertheless I would be surprised to see such voters swing on any great scale to the LibDems given that quite a lot of Green support will have been built on disillusionment with the latter. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 2, 2018 13:03:34 GMT
I will do. At the 1997 election I predicted the majority for every constituency and felt very pleased with myself that one or two of them were within 10 or so votes of the actual result. Of course with 659 constituencies it was inevitable that would happen. In 1992 I predicted that the smallest majority in the country would be 19 (and it was - in Vale of Glamorgan). My method was simply to average the smallest majorities from the previous several general elections. Interesting method, I hadn't thought of that. (I can remember one of my predictions from 1997, which was a Labour majority of 17,089 in Salford and the actual result was 17,069. A total waste of brainpower to still be able to remember that). |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2018 13:31:56 GMT
if the Lib Dems were making moves in Lambeth we'd surely have seen it in May? Instead there was little movement The chance that local election results in Lambeth affect a Parliamentary by-election in Lewisham seems even more fanciful... Are you predicting the Greens will come second in Lewisham E on the basis of their gains in Lambeth? Why not pick Haringey, Richmond, Kingston or Sutton as your benchmark? Or Barking and Dagenham where the Lib Dems did not put up any candidates as far as I can see!
Regarding Lewisham East, the Tories did quite well in Grove Park, but in the runner up races everywhere else were beaten by the Lib Dems or Greens in several wards. If the Lib Dems capture a good part of the Green vote (which is very likely due to vastly greater effort) and get some more votes off Labour in places where they did nothing in the locals they will be ahead of the Tories on local election results (which still will not mean much!)
no I suspect many local greens voted labour in 2017 and may vote labour again |
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 2, 2018 13:54:21 GMT
Wrong again! Green activists maybe, who are 1% of Green voters Here in Norwich support for the Greens has fallen back significantly since Corbyn became leader with many former discontented left of centre voters switching back to Labour - indeed next year they are at risk of losing all their seats on the City Council.. I accept that the allegiance of the residual Green vote is rather less predictable in that many vote for them as a NOTA option - something which has also helped UKIP and - until the Coalition period - the LibDems. Nevertheless I would be surprised to see such voters swing on any great scale to the LibDems given that quite a lot of Green support will have been built on disillusionment with the latter. We are talking about Green voters in the recent local elections, in Lewisham East, which was well above the Green vote in current polls. Actually when you look at wards where the Greens put up 1 candidate and the Lib Dems and Labour three, it looks like rather similar numbers of Green voters cast their other votes for the Lib Dems and for Labour, and some even for the Tories. Meanwhile the successful collaboration between Lib Dems and Greens in Richmond Park is worth noting...
Anyway, this is a local by-election, not a local election and not the 2017 GE, where Remain voters rallied behind Labour to stop Theresa's hard Brexit, and also to change austerity or get a big handout from Jeremy if they were young graduates. The only national issue that is going to be affected by this by-election is Brexit, and the only way it will be affected is if a poor result for Labour emboldens the majority of Labour MPs and members who disagree with Corbyn's pro-Tory Brexit position. Anecdotal evidence is that some habitual Labour voters are going to switch to Lib Dem on that issue. How many is anyone's guess. However I am going to predict a result rather similar to 2010 in % terms...
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Post by justin124 on Jun 2, 2018 14:15:36 GMT
Here in Norwich support for the Greens has fallen back significantly since Corbyn became leader with many former discontented left of centre voters switching back to Labour - indeed next year they are at risk of losing all their seats on the City Council.. I accept that the allegiance of the residual Green vote is rather less predictable in that many vote for them as a NOTA option - something which has also helped UKIP and - until the Coalition period - the LibDems. Nevertheless I would be surprised to see such voters swing on any great scale to the LibDems given that quite a lot of Green support will have been built on disillusionment with the latter. We are talking about Green voters in the recent local elections, in Lewisham East, which was well above the Green vote in current polls. Actually when you look at wards where the Greens put up 1 candidate and the Lib Dems and Labour three, it looks like rather similar numbers of Green voters cast their other votes for the Lib Dems and for Labour, and some even for the Tories. Meanwhile the successful collaboration between Lib Dems and Greens in Richmond Park is worth noting... Anyway, this is a local by-election, not a local election and not the 2017 GE, where Remain voters rallied behind Labour to stop Theresa's hard Brexit, and also to change austerity or get a big handout from Jeremy if they were young graduates. The only national issue that is going to be affected by this by-election is Brexit, and the only way it will be affected is if a poor result for Labour emboldens the majority of Labour MPs and members who disagree with Corbyn's pro-Tory Brexit position. Anecdotal evidence is that some habitual Labour voters are going to switch to Lib Dem on that issue. How many is anyone's guess. However I am going to predict a result rather similar to 2010 in % terms...
I strongly disagree with the widely held view that Corbyn's relative success in 2017 was much influenced by Brexit. Although it was Theresa May's justification for calling the election out of the blue, in reality it was not really a Brexit election at all . It was far too technical an issue for most voters, and Corbyn did well by managing to change the subject of the campaign . He was able to connect by raising issues which really did strike a chord with people. Moreover, I am convinced that the big variations in Labour's performance across the country owed far more to the attitudes of traditional working class voters towards Corbyn than to the Brexit issue itself. I accept that it might have featured more prominently in some parts of London. |
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Post by Pimpernal on Jun 2, 2018 14:28:09 GMT
So - will For Britain's Anne Marie Valterz beat the UKIP candidate?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2018 14:52:53 GMT
So - will For Britain's Anne Marie Valterz beat the UKIP candidate? I've been umming and aahing this myself. There's a lot of minor candidates clumped in the middle of the ballot, which could do all of them a lot of harm. The For Britain candidate being at the bottom could attract the "donkey vote". I imagine it will be close. UKIP don't do well in London, as it is. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2018 15:04:35 GMT
So - will For Britain's Anne Marie Valterz beat the UKIP candidate? I've been umming and aahing this myself. There's a lot of minor candidates clumped in the middle of the ballot, which could do all of them a lot of harm. The For Britain candidate being at the bottom could attract the "donkey vote". I imagine it will be close. UKIP don't do well in London, as it is. I thought it was the Democrats and Veterans who were going for the donkey vote?  |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2018 15:12:01 GMT
I've been umming and aahing this myself. There's a lot of minor candidates clumped in the middle of the ballot, which could do all of them a lot of harm. The For Britain candidate being at the bottom could attract the "donkey vote". I imagine it will be close. UKIP don't do well in London, as it is. I thought it was the Democrats and Veterans who were going for the donkey vote?  |
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Post by greenchristian on Jun 2, 2018 15:48:13 GMT
Wrong again! Green activists maybe, who are 1% of Green voters Here in Norwich support for the Greens has fallen back significantly since Corbyn became leader with many former discontented left of centre voters switching back to Labour - indeed next year they are at risk of losing all their seats on the City Council.. I accept that the allegiance of the residual Green vote is rather less predictable in that many vote for them as a NOTA option - something which has also helped UKIP and - until the Coalition period - the LibDems. Nevertheless I would be surprised to see such voters swing on any great scale to the LibDems given that quite a lot of Green support will have been built on disillusionment with the latter. Those Green voters and activists who were going to go over to Corbyn's Labour have already done so. And that includes the lion's share of those who still think that the Lib Dems' time in coalition makes them irredeemable. I have no problem believing that some of our vote could swing to the Lib Dems in this particular by-election, especially given that they are putting in a lot more effort than we are. Norwich is one of only two places in the country (the other being Oxford) where the Corbyn effect has done us serious and lasting harm in local elections. So I'd be very wary of using either of those places as evidence of a general trend amongst Green voters. |
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Post by justin124 on Jun 2, 2018 15:54:53 GMT
Here in Norwich support for the Greens has fallen back significantly since Corbyn became leader with many former discontented left of centre voters switching back to Labour - indeed next year they are at risk of losing all their seats on the City Council.. I accept that the allegiance of the residual Green vote is rather less predictable in that many vote for them as a NOTA option - something which has also helped UKIP and - until the Coalition period - the LibDems. Nevertheless I would be surprised to see such voters swing on any great scale to the LibDems given that quite a lot of Green support will have been built on disillusionment with the latter. Those Green voters and activists who were going to go over to Corbyn's Labour have already done so. And that includes the lion's share of those who still think that the Lib Dems' time in coalition makes them irredeemable. I have no problem believing that some of our vote could swing to the Lib Dems in this particular by-election, especially given that they are putting in a lot more effort than we are. Norwich is one of only two places in the country (the other being Oxford) where the Corbyn effect has done us serious and lasting harm in local elections. So I'd be very wary of using either of those places as evidence of a general trend amongst Green voters. I rather agree with your comment regarding Norwich & Oxford. Nevertheless I still strongly suspect that the Greens have replaced the LibDems as the likely left of centre Protest Vote option. I say this as someone who happily voted LibDem at both the 2001 and 2005 elections when Charles Kennedy was Leader.. There is no way I would now seriously consider them. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2018 15:56:12 GMT
Here in Norwich support for the Greens has fallen back significantly since Corbyn became leader with many former discontented left of centre voters switching back to Labour - indeed next year they are at risk of losing all their seats on the City Council.. I accept that the allegiance of the residual Green vote is rather less predictable in that many vote for them as a NOTA option - something which has also helped UKIP and - until the Coalition period - the LibDems. Nevertheless I would be surprised to see such voters swing on any great scale to the LibDems given that quite a lot of Green support will have been built on disillusionment with the latter. Those Green voters and activists who were going to go over to Corbyn's Labour have already done so. And that includes the lion's share of those who still think that the Lib Dems' time in coalition makes them irredeemable. I have no problem believing that some of our vote could swing to the Lib Dems in this particular by-election, especially given that they are putting in a lot more effort than we are. Norwich is one of only two places in the country (the other being Oxford) where the Corbyn effect has done us serious and lasting harm in local elections. So I'd be very wary of using either of those places as evidence of a general trend amongst Green voters. The Green candidate for 800 votes last time, I'm not sure they'll get that much more this time. Crunched by a large ballot paper and the Corbyn factor, there won't be much of a Green surge imo. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 2, 2018 16:25:05 GMT
We are talking about Green voters in the recent local elections, in Lewisham East, which was well above the Green vote in current polls. Actually when you look at wards where the Greens put up 1 candidate and the Lib Dems and Labour three, it looks like rather similar numbers of Green voters cast their other votes for the Lib Dems and for Labour, and some even for the Tories. Meanwhile the successful collaboration between Lib Dems and Greens in Richmond Park is worth noting... Anyway, this is a local by-election, not a local election and not the 2017 GE, where Remain voters rallied behind Labour to stop Theresa's hard Brexit, and also to change austerity or get a big handout from Jeremy if they were young graduates. The only national issue that is going to be affected by this by-election is Brexit, and the only way it will be affected is if a poor result for Labour emboldens the majority of Labour MPs and members who disagree with Corbyn's pro-Tory Brexit position. Anecdotal evidence is that some habitual Labour voters are going to switch to Lib Dem on that issue. How many is anyone's guess. However I am going to predict a result rather similar to 2010 in % terms...
I strongly disagree with the widely held view that Corbyn's relative success in 2017 was much influenced by Brexit. Although it was Theresa May's justification for calling the election out of the blue, in reality it was not really a Brexit election at all . It was far too technical an issue for most voters, and Corbyn did well by managing to change the subject of the campaign . He was able to connect by raising issues which really did strike a chord with people. Moreover, I am convinced that the big variations in Labour's performance across the country owed far more to the attitudes of traditional working class voters towards Corbyn than to the Brexit issue itself. I accept that it might have featured more prominently in some parts of London. In Ashcroft's big poll straight after the referendum, 63% of 2015 Labour voters voted Remain, and 42% of 2015 Tory voters. In the latest Yougov poll those figures are 70% and 26%. Leave and Remain consolidated a great deal into Brexit camps as the UKIP vote collapsed in the 2017 General Election.
In the election Theresa talked exclusively about Brexit (ok, there was dementia tax as well!) and voters coalesced around Labour to stop her getting a majority. Here in Yorkshire I met many voters who voted tactically for Labour to stop a Tory landslide, not just in Dewsbury and Batley and Spen which were predicted to go Tory at the start of the campaign, but even in Huddersfield. I know a Lib Dem member who seriously thought Barry Sheerman was going to lose, and I could not persuade him otherwise. My son, his partner, and my daughter all voted Labour, but none of them have any love for Corbyn and they all thought he would break most of his promises if he got in.
In a two horse race, people vote for one or other of the horses, but most people did not actually expect Labour to win, so they paid more attention to the Tory programme (hard Brexit and the dementia tax) than Labour's..
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 2, 2018 16:27:15 GMT
I've been umming and aahing this myself. There's a lot of minor candidates clumped in the middle of the ballot, which could do all of them a lot of harm. The For Britain candidate being at the bottom could attract the "donkey vote". I imagine it will be close. UKIP don't do well in London, as it is. I thought it was the Democrats and Veterans who were going for the donkey vote? NOW we know who is eating the leaflets! (was donkeys eating leaflets on this thread? can't remember!) |
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Post by AdminSTB on Jun 2, 2018 16:59:47 GMT
So - will For Britain's Anne Marie Valterz beat the UKIP candidate? I'd say no from my two short visits. The Kippers have had least done a free post and some leafleting. Nothing has yet to be tracked for either Für Ann-Marie or the Donkeys & Veterans. Given the UKIP candidate and the demographics, I'd expect UKIP to beat the other two but they can forget their deposit. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 2, 2018 17:08:17 GMT
So - will For Britain's Anne Marie Valterz beat the UKIP candidate? Of core snot! It won't even be close. |
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