Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2018 17:04:02 GMT
From Twitter, a close up from a UKIP leaflet in this by-election  |
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Jun 1, 2018 17:30:59 GMT
From Twitter, a close up from a UKIP leaflet in this by-election Interesting to see the lack of prominence of "UKIP" on that. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 1, 2018 18:21:29 GMT
From Twitter, a close up from a UKIP leaflet in this by-election I think that leaflet may cross the line into illegality. When I first saw it I did not immediately associate it with the Mayor, but with Pakistani Muslims in general. Hopefully the electorate will treat UKIP and Britain First with the contempt they deserve... |
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Post by markgoodair on Jun 1, 2018 18:36:35 GMT
My prediction Labour majority of 23419.
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mondialito
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Post by mondialito on Jun 1, 2018 20:15:16 GMT
My prediction Labour majority of 23419. Maybe in a General Election, but the reduced turnout in a by-election will prevent such a numerically high majority. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2018 21:31:58 GMT
My prediction Labour majority of 23419. Can you be more specific? |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 1, 2018 21:41:54 GMT
My prediction Labour majority of 23419. Can you be more specific? I used to do predictions for elections down to the individual vote like this.  |
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Post by markgoodair on Jun 1, 2018 23:06:44 GMT
Can you be more specific? I used to do predictions for elections down to the individual vote like this. Well try it again. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2018 23:08:44 GMT
LAB HOLD
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2018 0:35:22 GMT
From Twitter, a close up from a UKIP leaflet in this by-election I think that leaflet may cross the line into illegality. When I first saw it I did not immediately associate it with the Mayor, but with Pakistani Muslims in general. Hopefully the electorate will treat UKIP and Britain First with the contempt they deserve... Here hear. May the electorate ignore Britain Firsf, Lib Dem’s, BNP, National Front and similar groups |
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Post by greenchristian on Jun 2, 2018 0:59:49 GMT
Here hear. May the electorate ignore Britain Firsf, Lib Dem’s, BNP, National Front and similar groups |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 2, 2018 1:35:19 GMT
I used to do predictions for elections down to the individual vote like this. Well try it again. I will do. At the 1997 election I predicted the majority for every constituency and felt very pleased with myself that one or two of them were within 10 or so votes of the actual result. Of course with 659 constituencies it was inevitable that would happen. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 2, 2018 7:12:50 GMT
I think that leaflet may cross the line into illegality. When I first saw it I did not immediately associate it with the Mayor, but with Pakistani Muslims in general. Hopefully the electorate will treat UKIP and Britain First with the contempt they deserve... Here hear. May the electorate ignore Britain Firsf, Tories, BNP, National Front and similar groups Had to FTFY Vox! Need to get real with the subject of the thread after all! |
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Jun 2, 2018 10:09:23 GMT
Who do we think will come 2nd?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2018 10:13:31 GMT
Who do we think will come 2nd? Conservatives |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 2, 2018 10:16:03 GMT
Who do we think will come 2nd? Conservatives Interesting, is that based on anything? |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2018 11:07:32 GMT
Interesting, is that based on anything? local election results |
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 2, 2018 11:12:15 GMT
Interesting, is that based on anything? local election results so why should you think that has any relevance to a Westminster by-election? It rarely does! |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2018 12:01:27 GMT
so why should you think that has any relevance to a Westminster by-election? It rarely does! if the Lib Dems were making moves in Lambeth we'd surely have seen it in May? Instead there was little movement |
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 2, 2018 12:35:16 GMT
so why should you think that has any relevance to a Westminster by-election? It rarely does! if the Lib Dems were making moves in Lambeth we'd surely have seen it in May? Instead there was little movement The chance that local election results in Lambeth affect a Parliamentary by-election in Lewisham seems even more fanciful... Are you predicting the Greens will come second in Lewisham E on the basis of their gains in Lambeth? Why not pick Haringey, Richmond, Kingston or Sutton as your benchmark? Or Barking and Dagenham where the Lib Dems did not put up any candidates as far as I can see!
Regarding Lewisham East, the Tories did quite well in Grove Park, but in the runner up races everywhere else were beaten by the Lib Dems or Greens in several wards. If the Lib Dems capture a good part of the Green vote (which is very likely due to vastly greater effort) and get some more votes off Labour in places where they did nothing in the locals they will be ahead of the Tories on local election results (which still will not mean much!)
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