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Post by yellowperil on May 21, 2023 18:26:41 GMT
Smarden/Weald North Ward results 1979-2023 (known as Smarden 1979-2003, Weald North 2003-23.)
1979 valid votes 1134
Con (H Hilder) 1058 (85.5%)
Lab (W. Chamberlain) 180 (14.5%)
1983 valid votes 644
Con (H Hilder) 557 (86.5%)
Lab (J Smith) 87 (13.5%)
1987 valid votes 854
Con (H. Hilder) 590 (69.1%)
SDP All (J. Towner) 264 (30.9%)
1991 valid votes 914
LD (S. Brown) 434 (47.5%)
Con ( L.Scaife) 401(43.9%)
Lab (A Howlett) 79 (8.6%)
1995 valid votes 896
LD ( G English) 487 (55.6%)
Con (E. Sutherland) 389 (44.4%)
1999 valid votes 929
LD ( G English) 469 (50.5%)
Con (A Pritchard) 460 (49.5%)
2003 valid votes 918
Con (R. Kelly) 528 (58.0%)
LD (C. Hardwick) 225 (24.2%)
AInd (D Swann) 165 (17.8%)
2007 valid votes 922
Con (H. Ellison) 663 (71.9%)
LD ( C.Hardwick) 144 (15.6%)
GP ( H.Jones) 115(12.5%)
2011 valid votes 1019
Con (G. Dyer) 635 (58.9%)
AInd (T.Lee) 332 (30.8%)
GP ( H.Jones) 112 (12.5%)
2015 valid votes 1495
Con (G. Dyer) 968 (64.7%)
UKIP (M.Hudson) 333 (22.3%)
GP (H.Jones) 112 (10.4%)
2019 valid votes 922
Con (K. Mulholland)439 (47.6%)
GP (H. Jones) 266 (29.9%)
UKIP (G. Hanson) 217 (23.5%)
2023 valid votes 931
Con (K. Brunger-Randall) 467 (50.2%)
AInd (P. Adams) 249 (26.7%)
GP (H. Jones) 127(13.6%)
Lab ( Richardson) 88 (9.7%)
I will comment in the next post.
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Post by johnloony on May 21, 2023 20:39:23 GMT
Smarden/Weald North Ward results 1979-2023 (known as Smarden 1979-2003, Weald North 2003-23.) 1979 valid votes 1134 Con (H Hilder) 1058 (85.5%) Lab (W. Chamberlain) 180 (14.5%) 1983 valid votes 644 Con (H Hilder) 557 (86.5%) Lab (J Smith) 87 (13.5%) 1987 valid votes 854 Con (H. Hilder) 590 (69.1%) SDP All (J. Towner) 264 (30.9%) 1991 valid votes 914 LD (S. Brown) 434 (47.5%) Con ( L.Scaife) 401(43.9%) Lab (A Howlett) 79 (8.6%) 1995 valid votes 896 LD ( G English) 487 (55.6%) Con (E. Sutherland) 389 (44.4%) 1999 valid votes 929 LD ( G English) 469 (50.5%) Con (A Pritchard) 460 (49.5%) 2003 valid votes 918 Con (R. Kelly) 528 (58.0%) LD (C. Hardwick) 225 (24.2%) AInd (D Swann) 165 (17.8%) 2007 valid votes 922 Con (H. Ellison) 663 (71.9%) LD ( C.Hardwick) 144 (15.6%) GP ( H.Jones) 115(12.5%) 2011 valid votes 1019 Con (G. Dyer) 635 (58.9%) AInd (T.Lee) 332 (30.8%) GP ( H.Jones) 112 (12.5%) 2015 valid votes 1495 Con (G. Dyer) 968 (64.7%) UKIP (M.Hudson) 333 (22.3%) GP (H.Jones) 112 (10.4%) 2019 valid votes 922 Con (K. Mulholland)439 (47.6%) GP (H. Jones) 266 (29.9%) UKIP (G. Hanson) 217 (23.5%) 2023 valid votes 931 Con (K. Brunger-Randall) 467 (50.2%) AInd (P. Adams) 249 (26.7%) GP (H. Jones) 127(13.6%) Lab ( Richardson) 88 (9.7%) I will comment in the next post. It is interesting that throughout that period, Con and Lab both repeatedly defected from one party to another (with lots of different party names). |
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Post by andrewp on May 22, 2023 12:22:31 GMT
That’s an interesting tale of the Lib Dems going from nowhere to the top and back again. On paper yellowperil, your result to hold in 1999 seems better than 1995. I know you have covered your history before but did you ever consider standing in 2003? Do you think you would have had any chance of holding in that year? On a similar note, if there were a version of you who set out now to try and win that ward for the Lib Dems In a nationally poor Con year like 2023, do you think the Lib Dems could win in that or are the Ashford Indies in the way now? |
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Post by yellowperil on May 22, 2023 17:50:55 GMT
That’s an interesting tale of the Lib Dems going from nowhere to the top and back again. On paper yellowperil , your result to hold in 1999 seems better than 1995. I know you have covered your history before but did you ever consider standing in 2003? Do you think you would have had any chance of holding in that year? On a similar note, if there were a version of you who set out now to try and win that ward for the Lib Dems In a nationally poor Con year like 2023, do you think the Lib Dems could win in that or are the Ashford Indies in the way now? Yes, I had said that I would come back to this with comments, and those were the sort of questions I was intending to try and answer. Having chosen to start this exercise with my own ward, it's more personal than most- next time I'll try to choose a ward less about me! The complication is that I had left the Lib Dem group in 2001 and was sitting as an Independent Lib Dem. I was always intending to retire, along with Eileen who had after all done 16 years. I was out of sympathy with some of the Lib Dems still in the group, who eventually showed their true colours by defecting to the Conservatives. Had I decided to fight the ward in 2003, and I was briefly tempted, almost certainly it would have been as an Independent Lib Dem and then probably rejoined the group after the defections. I think had I done so I had about a 50/50 chance of holding the seat - indeed fighting it as an Indy would probably increased my chance of holding it - more likely to catch wavering Tories, not likely to lose committed Lib Dem votes. Clare Hardwick in 2003 got quite a respectable vote, maybe the core Lib Dem vote at that time, even though she wasn't local, didn't campaign that hard, and probably didn't really want to win! By 2007 it was clear to just about everybody she really was just a paper candidate, even though she was a lovely lady and by then folk knew her farming connections which were important in this ward. "My" vote subsequently was going in part to the Greens and part to the Indies. Hilary Jones had (has) an important Green vote in Egerton (not much in Smarden as far as I'm aware) and she held off opposing me in the Borough elections - she did once stand against me at county, but she may not have known I was the candidate until too late. Two of my most significant supporters in my elections ( vital poster sites, among other things)were Tim Lee and Philly Adams, and they have subsequently stood as candidates themselves for Ashford Independents, Tim in 2011 and Philly in 2023! Both did respectably without getting close to winning. Both had been very supportive of me but were never party members as far as I know. Both were Egertonians- I don't think we have ever had the equivalent from Smarden. I had to work very hard to crack Smarden, though it had helped that Sheila Brown, the original Lib Dem councillor here, was very much a Smardonian. I always thought the Egerton vote far more fluid than that of Smarden. It quite matters where the candidate comes from, and the Tories generally have been from Smarden- one notable exception being Elaine Sutherland from Egerton who was my first opponent back in1995. One characteristic of the ward is that candidates have not often hung around for years- not since Harold Hilder retired. Only one other councillor besides me ( Geraldine Dyer) has done two terms; Sheila, Rita Kelly, Hugh Ellison and Ken Mulholland only did one term each- we will see how long Ms Brunger-Randall lasts. In terms of defeated candidates, only Hilary keeps coming back for more! To go back to Andrew's question, I think anyone can win a ward like this if they are prepared to put in the work. That means starting years before the election, not months, week or even days. It mean putting out the literature and building a team of deliverers, It means doing a fair bit of the delivery yourself so you get known , literally on the streets. It means attending the village events and especially the parish councils. These days,it means getting on the local online fora without being heavily political- facebook etc yes but also things like nextdoor. And the last of these is not a substitute for the traditional fields, its an important add-on. And most important of all, you do all that because you believe in it. It doesn't work if it's just seen as a political tool. If that's all true you can win, regardless of what the actual party label is. It's just easier if you're a Lib Dem because it comes with your DNA. |
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Post by yellowperil on May 24, 2023 16:24:26 GMT
A few further thoughts on Weald North, before moving on to another long view on these Ashford wards. My biggest political failure, I suppose, was in succession planning. Why did I not groom up and put in place somebody who could have been the next generation me? Believe me, it was not for want of trying.I couldn't find a Lib Dem member within the ward who was suitable/ wanted to do it. I had a number of good friends who were supporters and could maybe have been encouraged to go for the councillor job, but they would probably have baulked at the Lib Dem tag- They were friendly independents rather than Lib Dems. They did deliveries, put up posters, even for say general elections when the thing was more political, but standing as a serious candidate for the party in a local election was maybe a bridge too far. Two examples of that have already turned up- Tim Lee and Philly Adams. So I finished up with a person who would have made a great Lib Dem councillor. Clare Hardwick was the local party secretary, very capable and with the right sort of background - she ran a small PYO fruit farm and kept a few sheep and would have fitted in well with both village communities- prominent in her WI, etc. But she wasn't actually local to the two villages. Well, one might reason, nor had I been, but there was a difference of scale. I lived 2 miles from the centre of Egerton and 4 miles from Smarden, and the ward was big enough that you could have lived in it and be similar distances from each village centre. Clare was perhaps 7 miles from Egerton and say 11 miles from Smarden. It was too far.
And I think Clare thought so too, so maybe never fully committed to the task.
I think my next choice of ward- and there aren't that many remaining with virtually unaltered boundaries throughout this long period- will be Tenterden St Michaels. And, thankfully, my involvement directly in this ward is minimal.
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Post by yellowperil on May 25, 2023 16:44:59 GMT
As promised, I am starting work on St Michaels ward, another where I don't think there have been any boundary changes between 1970 and the present day. One thing that was always likely to happen in these very small single member wards is that they should encourage continuity. Once a councillor gets established they should be able to make the ward their own for a generation. We have noted that didn't happen in Weald North once Harold Hilder retired, but St Michaels is much more conforming to expectations- two councillors have each occupied this seat for long periods with very little challenge.
St Michaels is very clear-cut community, which sees itself as a village. In reality it's more of a suburb of the smallish market town of Tenterden, and it is just about the right size for one of Ashford's single person wards.It has always been part of the Borough of Tenterden, and once Tenterden was incorporated into the new Borough of Ashford, St Michaels was part of Tenterden Town Council, which retained many of the trappings of its ancient status including an ancient Town Hall and a suitably dressed up fancy Mayor. Not surprising if borough councillors for St Michaels had already had their day as Town Mayor of Tenterden, and they would be very hurt to be told that in reality that was only chairman of the parish council. Politically it was always going to be Tory except under exceptional circumstances.I do note, though, a trend all over the country for these typically true-blue little market towns to start showing yellow spots! . Historic voting figures will be the next post here.
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 1, 2023 22:41:06 GMT
Tenterden St Michaels Ward results, 1979-2023
1979 valid votes 1134
Con (H Watts) 920 (81.1%)
Lab (W Tugwell)189 (18.9%)
1983 valid votes 603
Con (E Barrows) 488 (80.9%)
Lab ( K Thornton) 115 (19.1%)
1987 valid votes 802
Con ( E Barrows) 505 (63.0%)
SDP All (A Pickett) 271 (33.8%)
Lab (B. Penny) 26 (3.2%)
1991 valid votes 748
Con (E Barrows) 400 (53.5%)
LD (M Jordan) 274 (36.6%)
Lab (D McNicholas)74 (9.9%)
1995 valid votes 711
LD ( B Wright) 356 (50.1%)
Con ( E Barrows)355 (49.9%)
1999 valid votes 800
Con ( J Link) 578 (72.2%)
LD (B Wright) 222 ((27.8%)
2003 valid votes 664
Con ( J Link) 534 (80.4%)
LD ( O Dove) 130 (19.6%)
2007 valid votes 724
Con (J Link) 543 (75.0%)
LD ( P Rickwood) 181 (25.0%)
2011 valid votes 884
Con ( J Link) 626 (70.4%)
UKIP (MStanley) 187 (21.2%)
LD ( A Hardwick ) 71 (8.0%
2015 valid votes 1184
Con (J Link) 893(75.4%)
UKIP (M Stanley) 291 (24.6%)
2019
Con (J Link) unopposed
2023 valid votes 721
Con (J Link) 347 (48.1%)
LD (J Medcalf) 271 (37.6%)
Lab(Lloyd) 103 (14.3%).
Note I have corrected my original entry for 2023 which had some glaring errors- comes from inputting in the small hours while simultaneously looking for the Hampstead South by-election result.
Comments will follow in next post
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 7, 2023 21:16:41 GMT
My intention had been to comment on the data for St Michaels very shortly after posting same- however, there has been almost a week's delay, because I have been busy elsewhere, and because my broadband was out of action for several days. But here goes now...
I was barely aware of the election in this ward back in 1979, the first entry on this table, but later was aware of Bill Tugwell the Labour candidate here, as he, and other members of his family, were among those joining the SDP from Labour in the earliest SDP days, and unlike some of the others, was prepared to make some effort and showed some signs of believing in his new party as more than a new bandwagon to jump on to avoid getting thrown out, which I am afraid is where some of the others were coming from.He was probably a good-ish paper candidate for Labour in St Michaels back in '79.
By 1983 we had a new Tory in Eddie Barrows and he was going to become a major figure on the Tory benches for some years, including taking the mayorality in due course. Labour's opposition was much more token and I know nothing about Thornton.
By 1987 the SDP was in being locally and saw St Michaels as a potentially winnable seat, and Alan Pickett was definitely campaigning seriously. He would have been a first rate councillor had he succeeded, but looking back his campaign was strong on enthusiasm but a bit lacking in expertise, as were many of those early campaigns. We of course were busy winning in Pluckley but I did go over a couple of times to help Alan in St Michaels- my first direct experience of that ward.
By 1991 we had a young enthusiastic local journalist, Mark Jordan, to stand, who gave it a good shot but couldn't really improve on Alan Pickett, but as is often the case with young enthusiastic candidates he didn't stay around to follow up the next time, while meanwhile Eddie Barrows was getting more senior and better known...this of course is the difficulty for challengers in this one-member ward, four year cycle system. Hugely advantageous for the incumbent.
However, in 1995 we were better prepared across the borough ( I was campaign managing) and in place of Mark we had a long standing Tenterden town councillor and recent Town mayor, Barry Wright. Barry was a professional psychologist(!) and prominent in the parish church where he had just been made Reader. He actually managed to beat Eddie Barrows -by a single vote! It was actually a majority of 1 rather than depending on drawing cards.
In 1999 the Tories were on the comeback trail quite widely and Barry was one of the casualties. losing his seat quite heavily to a new Tory candidate who was however very well known locally, and who like Barry had been town Mayor of Tenterden. John Link would be around a lot after that and in due course became Mayor of Ashford to add to his collection. Barry was beginning to suffer ill health and would never get the chance to stand again, and our candidates in the next two elections which we tried against him , though excellent in their very different ways , had very little chance of making much headway. Ollie in 2003 was a young and enthusiastic student and maybe had been able to continue his campaign might eventually got somewhere - again a casualty of the four year cycle problem. Pat was a feisty disability campaigner who made us all very aware of the issues she faced every day as well as as the candidate. over the yearsI was involved in campaigns we had quitea few candidates with disabilities of various sorts (Pat was confined to her wheelchair)and they always made admirable contributions but sadly never managed to get them elected.
tbc
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