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Post by frankyank on Jun 23, 2022 15:02:49 GMT
Incumbent Democrat Henry Cuellar has won the recount against Jessica Cisneros in Texas’ 28th District by 289 votes. And in the Alaska At-Large Special Election Independent/Democrat Al Gross, who finished third in the all party primary where the top four finishers progress to a ranked choice general election has withdrawn and won’t be replaced (so Santa Claus who finished a close fifth misses out). The race now realistically seems a head to head against Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich IV, the nephew of former Democratic Senator Mark Begich and grandson of former Democratic Congressman Nick Begich Sr. Is American politics even more dependent on family and patronage than ours? It gives the impression of being so. Smaller states, and rural areas, local government, and the like, tend to exhibit political dynasties more often, although this is a disappearing trend. Before the reforms of the 60s and 70s, political machines were extremely powerful and dynasties and their allies held quite a significant grip on the political process. Nowadays dynasties mostly hold on because of the connections a family has to donors and other power brokers, rather than actually controlling parts of the political process. Since many of the constituencies of the Congress are large, the old school retail politics and personality chains are far less prominent and powerful. The fall of the House of Bush exhibits this - once the preeminent Republican force in Texas because of their closeness to the powerful (and Republican-dominated) oil industry have now lost several elections (the Attorney General primary, a congressional primary in Houston) as the Republican base expanded and diversified. My state’s Secretary of State is of the illustrious La Follette dynasty, and has served in that capacity for nearly 45 years, but has failed to achieve higher office.
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 8,984
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Post by maxque on Jun 23, 2022 22:01:00 GMT
Is American politics even more dependent on family and patronage than ours? It gives the impression of being so. Smaller states, and rural areas, local government, and the like, tend to exhibit political dynasties more often, although this is a disappearing trend. Before the reforms of the 60s and 70s, political machines were extremely powerful and dynasties and their allies held quite a significant grip on the political process. Nowadays dynasties mostly hold on because of the connections a family has to donors and other power brokers, rather than actually controlling parts of the political process. Since many of the constituencies of the Congress are large, the old school retail politics and personality chains are far less prominent and powerful. The fall of the House of Bush exhibits this - once the preeminent Republican force in Texas because of their closeness to the powerful (and Republican-dominated) oil industry have now lost several elections (the Attorney General primary, a congressional primary in Houston) as the Republican base expanded and diversified. My state’s Secretary of State is of the illustrious La Follette dynasty, and has served in that capacity for nearly 45 years, but has failed to achieve higher office. Is he running again, despite being more than 80?
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Post by frankyank on Jun 23, 2022 22:11:35 GMT
Smaller states, and rural areas, local government, and the like, tend to exhibit political dynasties more often, although this is a disappearing trend. Before the reforms of the 60s and 70s, political machines were extremely powerful and dynasties and their allies held quite a significant grip on the political process. Nowadays dynasties mostly hold on because of the connections a family has to donors and other power brokers, rather than actually controlling parts of the political process. Since many of the constituencies of the Congress are large, the old school retail politics and personality chains are far less prominent and powerful. The fall of the House of Bush exhibits this - once the preeminent Republican force in Texas because of their closeness to the powerful (and Republican-dominated) oil industry have now lost several elections (the Attorney General primary, a congressional primary in Houston) as the Republican base expanded and diversified. My state’s Secretary of State is of the illustrious La Follette dynasty, and has served in that capacity for nearly 45 years, but has failed to achieve higher office. Is he running again, despite being more than 80? Yes, he is. The office had been stripped of many of its (remaining) official duties during the Walker administration 2011-2019, partially as a result of La Follette's actions during the 2011 protests against Act 10. It is a relatively low-stress position. It actually used to be quite a powerful office, functioning as an election administrator, state auditor, and comptroller; nowadays it may be one of the weakest elected Secretaries of State.
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Post by frankyank on Jun 27, 2022 22:18:02 GMT
Tomorrow is primary day for several states: Illinois, Colorado, Oklahoma, Utah, and statewide offices and state assembly in New York (Congressional and state senate elections have been scheduled for August due to redistricting).
Some important races:
GOP primaries for Illinois governor and Colorado governor, Oklahoma Attorney General and Treasurer, and the Senate special election in Oklahoma. Additionally, congressional primaries: incumbents Lauren Boebert (CO) and Doug Lamborn (CO) have serious primary challengers; Safe open seat in OK-02; competitive seats such as IL-13 and CO-08; Incumbents Rodney Davis and Mary Miller battle it out in Illinois-15.
High-profile Democratic primaries - NY Gubernatorial and Lieutenant Gubernatorial primaries, IL Secretary of State primary. Congressional primaries: Incumbent battle in IL-06 between Sean Casten and Marie Newman; open safe seat primaries in heavily-black IL-01 and new Hispanic-majority IL-03, as well as competitive open seat IL-17; incumbent Danny Davis (IL) may be vulnerable in his primary, and Raja Krishnamoorthi's (IL) primary opponent has spent significant funds as well.
Additionally the runoff election for two Republican incumbents in Mississippi are being held, as is the special election for Republican-vacated Nebraska 1st district, which should be a Republican hold.
This is the last major primary election night until August with the exception of the Maryland primary in mid-July.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jul 2, 2022 20:12:45 GMT
Some lowlights from the Arizona and Wyoming GOP debates. The candidates, aside from Liz Cheney, revelling in ignorance and making a general spectacle of themselves.
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Post by riccimarsh on Jul 2, 2022 21:14:24 GMT
Some lowlights from the Arizona and Wyoming GOP debates. The candidates, aside from Liz Cheney, revelling in ignorance and making a general spectacle of themselves. It’s just mind-boggling how ultra-conservative Liz Cheney is sounding so sensible these days… and that that approach is gonna cause her to lose her Primary by a lot. How did the Republican Party become so insane and detached from reality??
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Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 39,152
Member is Online
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 2, 2022 21:28:44 GMT
I haven't watched the video but I thought Liz Cheney was very conservative but opposed to the Trump style of populism. And I didn't think it was possible to be too conservative for Wyoming!!
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jul 2, 2022 21:47:17 GMT
Some lowlights from the Arizona and Wyoming GOP debates. The candidates, aside from Liz Cheney, revelling in ignorance and making a general spectacle of themselves. It’s just mind-boggling how ultra-conservative Liz Cheney is sounding so sensible these days… and that that approach is gonna cause her to lose her Primary by a lot. How did the Republican Party become so insane and detached from reality?? A combination of these two factors
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Post by rcronald on Jul 3, 2022 6:54:54 GMT
Some lowlights from the Arizona and Wyoming GOP debates. The candidates, aside from Liz Cheney, revelling in ignorance and making a general spectacle of themselves. It’s just mind-boggling how ultra-conservative Liz Cheney is sounding so sensible these days… and that that approach is gonna cause her to lose her Primary by a lot. How did the Republican Party become so insane and detached from reality?? I highly doubt the people of Wyoming dislike Chaney because of her ideology or her voting record (she would have won by a landslide), it’s her focus on Trump and her critique of the GOP.
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Post by stb12 on Jul 3, 2022 14:58:24 GMT
It’s just mind-boggling how ultra-conservative Liz Cheney is sounding so sensible these days… and that that approach is gonna cause her to lose her Primary by a lot. How did the Republican Party become so insane and detached from reality?? I highly doubt the people of Wyoming dislike Chaney because of her ideology or her voting record (she would have won by a landslide), it’s her focus on Trump and her critique of the GOP. It only really stands out as a focus because the House GOP has been pathetically subservient towards Trump over the whole January 6th issue. At least McConnell and the senate leadership have stood up to him to some extent
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Post by rcronald on Jul 3, 2022 16:00:33 GMT
I highly doubt the people of Wyoming dislike Chaney because of her ideology or her voting record (she would have won by a landslide), it’s her focus on Trump and her critique of the GOP. It only really stands out as a focus because the House GOP has been pathetically subservient towards Trump over the whole January 6th issue. At least McConnell and the senate leadership have stood up to him to some extent I don’t think it was the actual vote that tanked her as people like Valadao,Meijer,Newhouse and Herrera seem to be doing relatively fine, but her obsession with it after the actual vote (which also tanked Rice).
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Post by rcronald on Jul 6, 2022 12:13:40 GMT
Warnock in trouble
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Post by rcronald on Jul 6, 2022 12:32:14 GMT
Another one
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Post by stb12 on Jul 6, 2022 12:58:38 GMT
John Fetterman really does not look like a politician at all does he?
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,285
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 6, 2022 15:43:24 GMT
John Fetterman really does not look like a politician at all does he? He doesn't, does he. Not sure that story has much in it once the anti-lockdown frothing has been wiped away though. The Warnock one could be more serious...
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Post by rcronald on Jul 6, 2022 16:22:35 GMT
John Fetterman really does not look like a politician at all does he? He doesn't, does he. Not sure that story has much in it once the anti-lockdown frothing has been wiped away though. The Warnock one could be more serious... He probably can’t attack oz on being in Jersey anymore though…
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Post by london(ex)tory on Jul 26, 2022 12:08:52 GMT
Forgive me if this has already been posted in here but the thread is very long to search through...
In the same way as Rallings & Thrasher (and indeed others) calculate notional results for new UK parliamentary boundaries, has anyone published notional 2020 results for the new House boundaries coming into force this year?
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Post by frankyank on Jul 26, 2022 13:06:51 GMT
Forgive me if this has already been posted in here but the thread is very long to search through... In the same way as Rallings & Thrasher (and indeed others) calculate notional results for new UK parliamentary boundaries, has anyone published notional 2020 results for the new House boundaries coming into force this year? If you mean the 2020 presidential election results in the new boundaries, yes; I don’t have it handy at the moment but I could find them again. If you mean something like a perceived 2020 House vote with the new maps, no; I don’t think that’s ever been common practice, really. We are too focused on individual candidates for their votes to “roll over” to create notional results.
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 26, 2022 13:16:05 GMT
Forgive me if this has already been posted in here but the thread is very long to search through... In the same way as Rallings & Thrasher (and indeed others) calculate notional results for new UK parliamentary boundaries, has anyone published notional 2020 results for the new House boundaries coming into force this year? This might be close to what you’re looking for: www.cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/2022-partisan-voting-index/district-map-and-list
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,230
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 26, 2022 13:21:13 GMT
Forgive me if this has already been posted in here but the thread is very long to search through... In the same way as Rallings & Thrasher (and indeed others) calculate notional results for new UK parliamentary boundaries, has anyone published notional 2020 results for the new House boundaries coming into force this year? For maps of the 2020 Presidential or Senate elec.s i can recommend this one: cinycmaps.com/index.php/cd-multimap/2020s-cdsThe House-res. are so far not up there, though. Twitter produces hundreds, thousands of them - now surely already for every CD -, but unsystematically.
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