Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Dec 2, 2020 20:49:55 GMT
The IA-02 recount is still going on. Based on official reports from some counties and unofficial reports from other counties some sources have Rita Hart (D) up by margins of either 1 or 3 votes. Quite possible this ends up in court. All 24 counties in the district have recounted and reported their numbers. Miller-Meeks (R) appears to have won by 6 votes. The result is due to be certified on Monday. The result was certified with Miller-Meeks winning by 6 votes. Hart is vaguely suggesting that some ballots that should have been counted were not but rather than go to court she is instead planning to ask the US House of representatives to seat her instead of Miller-Meeks.
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
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Post by European Lefty on Dec 3, 2020 3:06:54 GMT
All 24 counties in the district have recounted and reported their numbers. Miller-Meeks (R) appears to have won by 6 votes. The result is due to be certified on Monday. The result was certified with Miller-Meeks winning by 6 votes. Hart is vaguely suggesting that some ballots that should have been counted were not but rather than go to court she is instead planning to ask the US House of representatives to seat her instead of Miller-Meeks. Any particular reason why she's choosing that route?
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Post by ibfc on Dec 3, 2020 4:22:44 GMT
Iowa courts are dominated by Republicans. There’s only one Democrat on the Iowa Supreme Court.
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Post by matureleft on Dec 3, 2020 13:50:48 GMT
With the Biden ad on dog ownership and now this the Democrats have clearly decided that dog owners lean their way!
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johng
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Post by johng on Dec 3, 2020 16:00:25 GMT
New poll out for the Georgia races. SurveyUSA is a fairly decent pollster (538 A). Their pre-election polls, like most, were too Democratic, but they were generally among the better pollsters. That's now three non-partisan polls in a row with Warnock ahead (+1, +1 and +7). The Ossoff-Perdue race looks a lot closer with the polls showing Perdue +4, even and now Ossoff +2.
Edit: Nate Silver makes a very interesting point. The polls skews 3 points to Biden when compared to last month meaning a Democratic bias. Some are dreaming of a low GOP turnout - I am yet to see any real evidence for such a thing happening though. Still, it's clear that Loeffler is facing a relatively tough run-off.
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 22,364
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Post by mboy on Dec 3, 2020 16:04:33 GMT
Game on
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Post by manchesterman on Dec 3, 2020 16:23:49 GMT
need to get churning out those "thousands of fake ballots " ...just to make sure
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Post by bigfatron on Dec 3, 2020 16:28:21 GMT
Game on I do hope so - if only because there needs to be some price to pay by the GOP for such spineless acquiescence to Trump's anti-democratic ravings...
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
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Post by mboy on Dec 4, 2020 12:45:31 GMT
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Post by relique on Dec 4, 2020 14:27:20 GMT
There should also be two categories "GOP voters" and "Dem voters".
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johng
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Post by johng on Dec 4, 2020 17:29:32 GMT
Another poll for Georgia. This time it's from RMG Research (538 B/C) for PoliticalIQ. Senate Election Ossoff - 48% Perdue - 47% Special Senate Election Warnock - 48% Loeffler - 46%
Some interesting things from yesterday's SurveyUSA poll to pick up on. 52% of Democrats think the votes will be counted accurately, but that number's only 16% for Republicans. For non-voters, 13% say they are not voting because the 'process is rigged,' and another 5% say they are not voting in the runoff for unspecified reasons. Music to the Dems ears.
In terms of non-partisan polls, so far we've had: RMG/ PoliticalIQ (4/12): Ossoff +1 / Warnock +2. SurveyUSA/ WXIA-TV Atlanta (3/12): Ossoff +2 / Warnock +7. InsiderAdvantage/ Fox 5 Atlanta (16/11): EVEN / Warnock +1.
In terms of partisan polls, we've had: VCreekAMG/ Americas PAC (17/11): - / Loeffler +4 . Remington Research Group (10/11): Perdue +4 / Loeffler +1 (I mistakenly put this as non-partisan before).
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johng
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Post by johng on Dec 5, 2020 11:50:55 GMT
And now Trafalgar are giving it a go. Their numbers don't seem right to me. Ossoff/ Warnock and Perdue/ Loeffler will almost certainly be within a point or two of each other and I think it's fairly widely accepted that Perdue will run ahead of her. Trafalgar's performance in Georgia hasn't been too good. They haven't polled in a while, but their last poll was Trump +7. Senate Election Ossoff - 48% Perdue - 47% Special Senate Election Warnock - 45% Loeffler - 50% drive.google.com/file/d/1eFVivsXv4uwZNBzuO-y7rMjo7LXVvfVF/view
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Dec 5, 2020 16:15:44 GMT
House Democrats elected three new Committee chairman this week following the retirement of Nita Lowey, the primary defeat of Eliot Engel and the general election defeat of Collin Peterson.
In a disappointing but unsurprising move they once again overlooked Marcy Kaptur (OH) for the Chairmanship of Appropriations despite her considerable seniority (longest serving female member of the House in the history) with the gavel going to the much more leadership friendly Rosa DeLauro (CT). Kaptur was actually third in the steering committee vote finishing behind Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (FL) and endorsed DeLauro for the final vote of the full Caucus.
The other races saw the Congressional Black Caucus expand their muscle with Gregory Meeks (NY) taking the chairmanship of Foreign Affairs by defeating Joaquin Castro (TX) and David Scott (GA) defeating Jim Costa (CA) for the chairmanship of Agriculture. Scott's elevation is particular noteworthy as he represents an overwhelmingly urban seat in and around Atlanta. The farming communities of western Minnesota who voted against Collin Peterson certainly put ideology over self-interest.
The power and influence of the Congressional Black Caucus is probably* now at all time high. Not only do they have Jim Clyburn as Majority Whip and Hakeem Jeffries as Caucus Chairman but from January they will have six Committee chairman.
Agriculture: David Scott (GA) Education and Workforce: Bobby Scott (VA) Financial Services: Maxine Waters (CA) Foreign Affairs: Gregory Meeks (NY) Homeland Security: Bennie Thompson (MS) Science, Space and Technology: Eddie Bernice Johnson (TX)
In contrast the Congressional Hispanic Caucus only have Pete Aguilar as Caucus Vice Chairman and two committee chairman
Natural Resources: Raul Grijalva (AZ) Small Business: Nydia Velazquez (NY)
* A case could be made that the Congressional Black Caucus had a slightly better position from 2007-2010 when they only had 4 committee chairman but this included Ways and Means (Charlie Rangel) and Judiciary (John Conyers).
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Dec 6, 2020 20:34:21 GMT
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Dec 8, 2020 18:25:26 GMT
In the NY-22 race we have lengthy ruling from Justice DelConte. He has rejected Tenney's motion to allow the results to be certified and has heavily criticised 7 of the 8 county election boards for making crucial errors during the counting process that has made his task of conducting a review of the disputed ballots impossible. In a partial victory for Brindisi he has ordered all of the boards to correct the errors in their counts and where this is not possible through a simple process to conduct a recanvass. Only then will he review disputed ballots. Essentially he has told the election officials that they made a mess of their job and that they need to fix things.
In practical terms it looks like at least 1,700 ballots that weren't counted originally will now be counted. It is hard to be confident who this will favour but since Tenney leads the current vote count it is a good ruling for Brindisi.
EDIT: Not all of the 1,700 ballots will be counted. They will all be canvassed and if deemed legitimate will be counted.
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Post by John Chanin on Dec 8, 2020 19:20:00 GMT
New York really is a shambles. Is there any way of sacking all these incompetent county officials?
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
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Post by Izzyeviel on Dec 8, 2020 22:38:57 GMT
New York really is a shambles. Is there any way of sacking all these incompetent county officials? I think they're elected arent they? or am I thinking of something else?
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Post by manchesterman on Dec 8, 2020 23:39:03 GMT
Yang would be an interesting choice...
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johng
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Post by johng on Dec 9, 2020 14:38:46 GMT
NC Senate 2022 primary poll. Lara Trump and former (defeated) governor in the lead. No idea who the others are.
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johng
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Post by johng on Dec 9, 2020 14:49:15 GMT
New GA poll from DataforProgress. Data is very old though as it was conducted 15-20/11. Their pre-election polls of GA were fairly poor. Their last one had Ossoff +5 (7 points too Dem). They did have Biden +2 though which was quite good (1 point too Dem).
Perdue - 50% Ossoff - 48%
Warnock - 50% Loeffler - 47%
In terms of non-partisan (*though some have a definite bias*) polls, we've had: DFP* (6/12): Perdue +2 / Warnock +3. Trafalgar* (3/12): Ossoff +1 / Loeffler +5. RMG/ PoliticalIQ (3/12): Ossoff +1 / Warnock +2. SurveyUSA/ WXIA-TV Atlanta (2/12): Ossoff +2 / Warnock +7. InsiderAdvantage/ Fox 5 Atlanta (16/11): EVEN / Warnock +1.
In terms of partisan polls, we've had: VCreekAMG/ Americas PAC (17/11): - / Loeffler +4 . Remington Research Group (10/11): Perdue +4 / Loeffler +1.
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