timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on May 1, 2020 0:21:26 GMT
They don’t use that definition though. Broadly “safe” is when one Party has a >90% chance of winning, “likely” is broadly >75%, “leans” >55% and “toss up” anything in the 50-55% range. So in this case they are probably arguing that Graham has a 85-90% chance whereas Georgia, presumably Loeffler more than Perdue, is closer to 65-75%. Don’t forget as well this is based on one internal GOP poll showing Graham only +4%, but this far out such polls are pretty vague, and as The Crystal Ball noted, in the same poll a generic Republican beat a generic Democrat by double digits, so it’s very likely if there’s more polling between now and November it’ll be moved back to Safe R pretty quickly. Thanks for the info about their ratings - are those guidelines shared by the Cook Political Report, Politico etc.? That was an internal Harrison poll, not a Graham poll. The last Republican internal projected Graham 54%-Harrison 37%. I think we’re both wrong; it was an internal Harrison poll, my apologies I misread the Sabato column, but the 54-37 poll was an older NBC News/Marist according to Kondik and Coleman who’ve written the piece for The Crystal Ball.
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Post by curiousliberal on May 1, 2020 0:22:58 GMT
Thanks for the info about their ratings - are those guidelines shared by the Cook Political Report, Politico etc.? That was an internal Harrison poll, not a Graham poll. The last Republican internal projected Graham 54%-Harrison 37%. I think we’re both wrong; it was an internal Harrison poll, my apologies I misread the Sabato column, but the 54-37 poll was an older NBC News/Marist according to Kondik and Coleman who’ve written the piece for The Crystal Ball. Yes; I must have skipped a line as the most recent Republican internal I can see is from November (with a similar margin, but even more outdated). W.r.t. Georgia, I'd argue Loeffler (or rather, the Republican frontrunner Doug Collins) isn't in much more danger than Perdue.* If the Democratic nominee narrowly beats Perdue in November, that's probably going to be it, but failing to crack 50% in either election will trigger a runoff in which Democratic turnout will presumably be down relative to Republican turnout (assuming a Democrat has won the presidency, which is almost certain if they're winning Georgia). The special election is a jungle primary with multiple Democratic candidates splitting the vote, whereas (by November) they will be a united front vs. Perdue. *Unless Trump wins, in which case a runoff endangers the Republican frontrunner in GA-S much more than Perdue.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on May 1, 2020 0:28:29 GMT
I think we’re both wrong; it was an internal Harrison poll, my apologies I misread the Sabato column, but the 54-37 poll was an older NBC News/Marist according to Kondik and Coleman who’ve written the piece for The Crystal Ball. Yes; I must have skipped a line as the most recent Republican internal I can see is from November (with a similar margin, but even more outdated). W.r.t. Georgia, I'd argue Loeffler (or rather, the Republican frontrunner Doug Collins) isn't in much more danger than Perdue. If the Democrats narrowly beat Perdue in November, that's it, but failing to crack 50% in the special election will trigger a runoff in which Democratic turnout will presumably be down relative to Republican turnout (assuming a Democrat has won the presidency, which is almost certain if they're winning Georgia). I guess they’re just a) giving Perdue the incumbency edge and b) he’s not got a potentially bloody intra-Party primary to negotiate, which potentially weakens the winner of Loeffler/Collins. However yes, if either is going to be beaten it almost certainly has to be in November and not a run off.
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2020 10:19:12 GMT
The GOP could lose Kansas if they're dumb enough to nominate Kris Kobach. "Q3 If the candidates for US Senate this November were Democrat Barbara Bollier and Republican Kris Kobach, who would you vote for? Barbara Bollier 44% Kris Kobach 42% Not sure 13%" www.politico.com/f/?id=00000171-7d10-d92d-a5ff-fd3a416c0000Undecideds would likely lean Kobach, but it could be quite close. Kobach is tied in the polls with Congressman Roger Marshall, who would win easily, but Kansas Republicans are split in a radical and a moderate wing and Kobach has a good chance of winning the nomination. The last time Kansas elected a Democrat to the US Senate was in 1932.
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Post by curiousliberal on May 1, 2020 12:00:55 GMT
The Doug Collins internals were pointing to this for a while, but we've just had our first non-Collins internal poll in GA-S since February, and it looks like Kelly Loeffler's coronavirus insider trading is going to make her an outsider. This one was commissioned by the Speaker of the Georgia HoR: Cygnal, Apr 27-29 Doug Collins (R) 29.4% Matt Lieberman (D) 12% Raphael Warnock (D) 10.6% Kelly Loeffler (R) 10.5% Ed Tarver (D) 4.3% Another qualified candidate 1.9% Undecided 31.4% The Trump-sympathetic Congressman is almost certainly in his element getting to lean into economic populism and successfully rail against the GOP establishment without simultaneously irking moderate voters. I sincerely hope Matt Lieberman isn't pulling ahead of the apparently well-qualified Raphael Warnock because of his father's name, given that he was responsible for stopping Obama's public option. I don't mind if Jr. is moving ahead for other reasons (his father's career shouldn't drag him down, either), but the cynic in me suggests he's able to fundraise and gain recognition mostly because some naive donors still hold Lieberman Sr. in high regard thanks to his history as a high-profile Democrat. In the other Senate race, Perdue is leading Ossoff 45.3% to 39.4% and Trump has an even smaller edge over Biden (45.1% over 44%). The latter is extremely good news in a Republican internal poll, even one from the fairly reliable Cygnal group.
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Post by curiousliberal on May 1, 2020 15:44:20 GMT
"Only AOC can win Obama-Trump voters." /s
I doubt a challenge would succeed unless he'd failed as a Majority Leader or failed to become Majority Leader by an embarrassing margin (i.e. the DSCC floundering in the current electoral cycle), but Cuomo's NY machine might not back him in a challenge given the recent feuding between the two (Cuomo tried to cut Medicare by "reforms" recently and Schumer attempted to make coronavirus aid conditional on abiding by legislation that would restrict the relevant reforms).
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Post by curiousliberal on May 4, 2020 11:32:29 GMT
It appears that although Doug Jones has a very healthy cash-on-hand advantage, Alabama is being triaged. The DSCC has made a few serious errors in candidate selection this time, but they're not yet making quite so many mistakes about which seats to target as they did in previous cycles (see: 2014 with Arkansas and Louisiana, 2018 with North Dakota). Al Gross in Alaska is running in part off the 'no corporate PAC funding', which is why less obvious financial support (and less financial support from the DSCC as a corollary of that) is advisable in this case. It probably helps boost his image as an independent, which I hope we see more of in future (if I were a Democrat, I'd much rather candidates get moderation points for not being a fan of party institutions/politicians than not being a fan of shared political principles). Richard Allen has mentioned that Don Young may be more at risk here, but there's surely less incentive for Democrats to target someone who only holds a House seat instead of a critical Senate seat, votes with them more often than most other Republicans and is probably on the way out by the 2024 electoral cycle anyway (assuming he doesn't run for Murkowski's Senate seat in 2022, in which case he'd only be a one-term senator). Young may be more personally polarising than Sullivan, but his brand has endured bad times for the Republican Party that the less independent Sullivan may not - his closest congressional elections (outside of a primary) were the first (which he lost) and the next (his first victory in '72 - no Democrat, Libertarian or independent has come closer to beating him since then).
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nelson
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Post by nelson on May 5, 2020 12:06:04 GMT
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on May 5, 2020 12:17:34 GMT
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Post by thirdchill on May 5, 2020 12:27:01 GMT
I don't see Doug Jones winning if the republicans avoid choosing a terrible candidate, even with a cash advantage. Particularly as the election also coincides with the presidential election, which the republicans will win by at least 20 points. If it was a gubernatorial race, I would be more inclined to given Doug Jones a chance, but split-ticketing between senate/house and presidential races has seen a marked decline over the last few decades, where even senators such as Joe Manchin in West Virginia are now being run close.
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Post by curiousliberal on May 5, 2020 13:24:30 GMT
This is a bit pedantic, but Dan Lipinski should be on the House list assuming he hasn't announced his intention to retire instead of running as an independent/with another party's nomination. W.r.t. Senators, PPP's surveys have the most Democratic lean out of all recent polls in Iowa. Greenfield is a competent fundraiser and could be a good candidate, but is probably a bit too tied to Des Moines to have the kind of rural appeal that Iowa Democrats usually need (swinging Iowan suburbs isn't going to be enough for a candidate at the statewide level). The DSCC's early endorsement of her was a recruitment failure in my view, as they'd have been better off with JD Scholten (even limiting their sights to candidates currently in the race, Michael Franken and perhaps Kimberly Graham had better favourability the last time they were poll-tested and would probably be equally strong candidates, if not better). It's not that she's a bad candidate, but first impressions suggest (to me) that the IA Democratic bench should be able to put forward better ones. In Montana, we have a new Senate poll (Apr 10-27, MoE 3.6%) from Montana State University: Bullock 46% Daines 39% Someone else 6% Undecided 7%
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on May 5, 2020 13:40:29 GMT
This is a bit pedantic, but Dan Lipinski should be on the House list assuming he hasn't announced his intention to retire instead of running as an independent/with another party's nomination. Lipinski has shown no inclination of running as an Independent, I doubt there’s an alternative Party registered in Illinois that would want him. Apart from the Libertarian Party everything registered in Illinois is “progressive”, and the Libertarians don’t seem a natural fit as he’s quite interventionist on economic issues.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on May 5, 2020 14:49:48 GMT
In Montana, we have a new Senate poll (Apr 10-27, MoE 3.6%) from Montana State University: Bullock 46% Daines 39% Someone else 6% Undecided 7% Same poll has Trump up by only 5%, which considering Montana was Romney +14 and Trump +20, suggests the sample is rather too Dem leaning.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on May 5, 2020 15:00:34 GMT
Montana State University don't have a great track record when it comes to polling and I gather this was the first time they have conducted an internet poll. They don't seem to published cross tabs either so this is borderline junk polling.
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Post by curiousliberal on May 5, 2020 15:05:05 GMT
Montana State University don't have a great track record when it comes to polling and I gather this was the first time they have conducted an internet poll. They don't seem to published cross tabs either so this is borderline junk polling. It being their first internet poll should be cause for skepticism, but it's worth nothing that their final MT-Sen poll in 2018 had a Tester lead of 3, which was on the mark.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 5, 2020 15:20:21 GMT
I would imagine Montana is a pretty difficult state to poll, as well. One of the reasons the 1992 Presidential result looked like it came out of thin air.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on May 5, 2020 15:41:03 GMT
Montana State University don't have a great track record when it comes to polling and I gather this was the first time they have conducted an internet poll. They don't seem to published cross tabs either so this is borderline junk polling. According to their Twitter the full polling report is to be published tomorrow along with a Presidential poll showing Trump ahead 45-40; today they’ve published, with details, a four State attitudes to coronavirus poll.
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Post by curiousliberal on May 5, 2020 18:07:02 GMT
HRC has endorsed Whitney Williams, daughter of former Montana Rep Pat Williams and one-time Clinton staffer, in the Montana gubernatorial primary (Williams is running against the current Lt Governor Mike Cooney, amongst others).
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Post by curiousliberal on May 5, 2020 21:55:54 GMT
The Colorado Supreme Court has ruled against Lorena Garcia and Michelle Ferrigno Warren, who had argued for the signature requirement for the Colorado Senate primary to be halved because of difficulties in collecting signatures because of COVID (which has hampered genuinely serious campaigns like Ed Markey's elsewhere). Unless they appeal to a higher court, the Senate primary will now be a John Hickenlooper/Andrew Romanoff face-off. Edit: the ruling only relates to Ferrigno Warren but in principle it should apply to Garcia - the Colorado Sec. of State has now launched an appeal against her candidacy on this basis, ostensibly so that a universal standard can be applied (she originally argued both might be able to get onto the ballot, along with other candidates who were denied a place on the ballot by a judge because they hadn't even reach half the required signatures). The case against Garcia will be heard soon as the ballot must be certified on Thursday, but she has slightly more wiggle room as she's much closer to the signature threshold. Edit 2: I'm behind on events. They ruled against Garcia today.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on May 5, 2020 22:45:49 GMT
In the last three weeks there have been 4 polls in North Carolina. Cunningham has led all of them with margins of 2,7,9 and 10 points. There is obviously a long way to go yet and polling at the moment comes with big caveats but there is strong case for saying that Cunningham looks like the narrow favourite at this point.
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