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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 13, 2020 21:46:17 GMT
With 10.79% of the results in as per Decision Desk HQ, the state of the Wisconsin Supreme Court Race is Karofsky (D) 50.03%, Kelly (R) 49.97%. It's even harder to predict than it normally would be because of differential depressions in turnout resulting from COVID fears and voter suppression.
I expect the losing party to contest this election in court due to irregularities like this:
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 13, 2020 22:17:21 GMT
They're slightly slower than Decision Desk HQ, but the Milwaukee Sentinel-Journal has a county map up for the Supreme Court race. Some analysis from Cohn comparing this to the last WI SC election:
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 13, 2020 22:27:23 GMT
We are quite possibly seeing a significant backlash against the combined efforts of the GOP controlled legislature and the conservative controlled court that effectively forcing a lot of people to go out and vote on election day.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Apr 13, 2020 22:43:58 GMT
While AOC would almost certainly beat any challenger, a woman who is essentially campaigning as a libertarian Republican is probably not a good fit for for a poor inner city district.
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 13, 2020 23:21:44 GMT
It now looks pretty much certain that Karofsky is going to win. All things considered she got a good turnout in Milwaukee and kept Kelly's margins in the suburbs down. Unless he gets much higher rural turnout and margins than looks likely he is toast.
It isn't a complete catastrophe for the Wisconsin GOP, there will still be a 4-3 conservative majority on the Supreme Court, but their hopes of a securing that majority for the next 6 years looks to be gone. Tony Evers appears to avoided a catastrophic defeat despite his own clear mistakes in this matter.
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 13, 2020 23:28:59 GMT
While AOC would almost certainly beat any challenger, a woman who is essentially campaigning as a libertarian Republican is probably not a good fit for for a poor inner city district. She might do a bit better than AOC's previous grifter challenger, who moderated his position on execution of gay people to 'I just personally think the gays should die' before dropping out a few months later. Richard Allen Can't they push to have the election voided? If the Democrats opposed that, they'd be accused of hypocrisy.
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 13, 2020 23:37:51 GMT
At the county level in Milwaukee:
Additionally, Tom Barrett won re-election as mayor.
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 13, 2020 23:41:07 GMT
Can't they push to have the election voided? If the Democrats opposed that, they'd be accused of hypocrisy. This being Wisconsin I wouldn't rule it out especially as there have been enough irregularities here to make a case of sorts. Obviously they would be utterly dishonest and hypocritical but as I said, I wouldn't rule it out. The problem for them is that if the conservative majority on the court voids the result the backlash when the election was held again would likely be even more severe. Even in the most tribal of times you can't take the piss too much.
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 13, 2020 23:44:42 GMT
Can't they push to have the election voided? If the Democrats opposed that, they'd be accused of hypocrisy. This being Wisconsin I wouldn't rule it out especially as there have been enough irregularities here to make a case of sorts. Obviously they would be utterly dishonest and hypocritical but as I said, I wouldn't rule it out. The problem for them is that if the conservative majority on the court voids the result the backlash when the election was held again would likely be even more severe. Even in the most tribal of times you can't take the piss too much. Yes, but they might go for it anyway if they reckoned the victory was down to the Democrats' turnout being boosted by the primaries, which would not be replicated in a re-run.
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 14, 2020 0:04:05 GMT
The NYT has called the race for Karofsky.
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 14, 2020 0:04:14 GMT
This being Wisconsin I wouldn't rule it out especially as there have been enough irregularities here to make a case of sorts. Obviously they would be utterly dishonest and hypocritical but as I said, I wouldn't rule it out. The problem for them is that if the conservative majority on the court voids the result the backlash when the election was held again would likely be even more severe. Even in the most tribal of times you can't take the piss too much. Yes, but they might go for it anyway if they reckoned the victory was down to the Democrats' turnout being boosted by the primaries, which would not be replicated in a re-run. I would imagine the most they could do is disqualify the disputed postmark ballots, but that’s not going to fundamentally alter the results. Karofsky is substantially overperforming in Republican leaning counties, and is running ahead of Biden and Sanders combined, which suggests there’s already voter backlash against the GOP efforts to rig the election. Even were they to go further and void the entire election it’s likely by the time all legal avenues were exhausted you’d be rerunning it on Presidential Election Day when Democratic turnout is likely to be even higher. (Incidentally the AP and others have just called the election for Karofsky).
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 14, 2020 0:12:54 GMT
Yes, but they might go for it anyway if they reckoned the victory was down to the Democrats' turnout being boosted by the primaries, which would not be replicated in a re-run. I would imagine the most they could do is disqualify the disputed postmark ballots, but that’s not going to fundamentally alter the results. Karofsky is substantially overperforming in Republican leaning counties, and is running ahead of Biden and Sanders combined, which suggests there’s already voter backlash against the GOP efforts to rig the election.In fairness both sides were guilty of wanting this election fought on grounds that suited them, hence Gov Evers' original opposition to changing the date of the election. That is not the same as rigging the election. Interestingly one majority on the court has been expanded as a result of this election. When Karofsky takes up her seat in August there will be a 6-1 female majority on the court.
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 14, 2020 0:33:43 GMT
I would imagine the most they could do is disqualify the disputed postmark ballots, but that’s not going to fundamentally alter the results. Karofsky is substantially overperforming in Republican leaning counties, and is running ahead of Biden and Sanders combined, which suggests there’s already voter backlash against the GOP efforts to rig the election.In fairness both sides were guilty of wanting this election fought on grounds that suited them, hence Gov Evers' original opposition to changing the date of the election. That is not the same as rigging the election. Interestingly one majority on the court has been expanded as a result of this election. When Karofsky takes up her seat in August there will be a 6-1 female majority on the court. Yes, I really meant by forcing it to be held last week on the assumption it would depress turnout in traditional Democratic areas.
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 14, 2020 4:06:10 GMT
Seems like a concession:
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Post by edgbaston on Apr 14, 2020 9:28:25 GMT
Looks like nearly everywhere swung Liberal in the end. If I were the GOP I’d be worried. This state is arguably Trumps last line of defence in November.
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 14, 2020 10:24:13 GMT
To be blunt this tells us nothing about November where the turnout is going to be significantly higher. In the end it looks Gov Evers's original calculation was correct. With a still vaguely competitive Democratic Presidential primary plenty of Democrats who don't normally vote in the Spring Election turned out where as not that many extra GOP voters did. Compared to last year the Conservative candidate added roughly 85,000 votes while the liberal candidate added around 255,000.
In terms of where it leaves the Wisconsin Supreme court. Unless there is a resignation or death the 4-3 composition of the court is set for at least three years. The next scheduled election is April 2023 when Chief Justice Pat Roggensack, the clear driving force of the conservative majority for at least a decade, is up for re-election. She will be 82 by then and although she is seemingly in very good health at the moment will most likely retire. It is highly unlikely that any of the 4 conservative justices will resign, especially while a Democrat sits in the Governor's office.
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 14, 2020 13:09:46 GMT
To be blunt this tells us nothing about November where the turnout is going to be significantly higher. In the end it looks Gov Evers's original calculation was correct. With a still vaguely competitive Democratic Presidential primary plenty of Democrats who don't normally vote in the Spring Election turned out where as not that many extra GOP voters did. Compared to last year the Conservative candidate added roughly 85,000 votes while the liberal candidate added around 255,000. In terms of where it leaves the Wisconsin Supreme court. Unless there is a resignation or death the 4-3 composition of the court is set for at least three years. The next scheduled election is April 2023 when Chief Justice Pat Roggensack, the clear driving force of the conservative majority for at least a decade, is up for re-election. She will be 82 by then and although she is seemingly in very good health at the moment will most likely retire. It is highly unlikely that any of the 4 conservative justices will resign, especially while a Democrat sits in the Governor's office. One point about the balance of the court, last year’s winner, Hagedorn, joined the two Democrats in a minority opinion on purging voter rolls, and last night’s vanquished Kelly recused himself, leaving a 3-3 tie; that likely means the issue’s likely to come before the court again, and if Hagedorn maintains his previous stance, the addition of Karofsky likely makes a 5-4 for the GOP legislature possible.
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 14, 2020 13:41:04 GMT
To be blunt this tells us nothing about November where the turnout is going to be significantly higher. In the end it looks Gov Evers's original calculation was correct. With a still vaguely competitive Democratic Presidential primary plenty of Democrats who don't normally vote in the Spring Election turned out where as not that many extra GOP voters did. Compared to last year the Conservative candidate added roughly 85,000 votes while the liberal candidate added around 255,000. In terms of where it leaves the Wisconsin Supreme court. Unless there is a resignation or death the 4-3 composition of the court is set for at least three years. The next scheduled election is April 2023 when Chief Justice Pat Roggensack, the clear driving force of the conservative majority for at least a decade, is up for re-election. She will be 82 by then and although she is seemingly in very good health at the moment will most likely retire. It is highly unlikely that any of the 4 conservative justices will resign, especially while a Democrat sits in the Governor's office. One point about the balance of the court, last year’s winner, Hagedorn, joined the two Democrats in a minority opinion on purging voter rolls, and last night’s vanquished Kelly recused himself, leaving a 3-3 tie; that likely means the issue’s likely to come before the court again, and if Hagedorn maintains his previous stance, the addition of Karofsky likely makes a 5-4 for the GOP legislature possible. Karofsky doesn't join until July 31. If Kelly recused himself because he didn't want to take a controversial stance before a tight race, he is now free to vote for the purge at any time before then.
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 14, 2020 14:43:45 GMT
One point about the balance of the court, last year’s winner, Hagedorn, joined the two Democrats in a minority opinion on purging voter rolls, and last night’s vanquished Kelly recused himself, leaving a 3-3 tie; that likely means the issue’s likely to come before the court again, and if Hagedorn maintains his previous stance, the addition of Karofsky likely makes a 5-4 for the GOP legislature possible. Karofsky doesn't join until July 31. If Kelly recused himself because he didn't want to take a controversial stance before a tight race, he is now free to vote for the purge at any time before then. It doesn’t say why he recused himself, possibly heard the case at a lower level, and from the reaction of voting rights groups it doesn’t appear to be on their docket before his departure.
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Post by Izzyeviel on Apr 15, 2020 21:33:06 GMT
Le Source (its from the Hill if it doesn't work)
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