Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 28, 2019 15:53:39 GMT
Senator Johnny Isakson (R-Georgia) to resign his seat at the end of 2019. Means both of Georgia's Senate seats will be up, as open seats, in 2020 - possibly both in November. Possibly worth watching as Georgia is developing purplish tendencies. The special election will take place in November 2020. Georgia is one of 36 states where in the event of a Senate vacancy the Governor appoints a replacement who serves until the next regularly scheduled statewide election. Gov Kemp has a pretty big decision to make and the national party will want him to pick a mainstream appointee who they can quickly get behind. They won't want a placeholder appointment leading to a free for all in the primary.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 28, 2019 15:55:10 GMT
Always possible he might appoint himself.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 28, 2019 15:58:02 GMT
Always possible he might appoint himself. That thought could give Mitch McConnell many sleepless nights.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 28, 2019 17:35:26 GMT
Three weeks ago the race for Governor of Mississippi took a surprising turn when Lt Gov Tate Reeves narrowly failed to hit 50% in the GOP primary and so was forced into a run off with former state Supreme Court Justice Bill Waller who polled 33% after running a centrist campaign and criticising Reeves record as Lt Gov. Today is run off day and while Reeves remains solid favourite the result could be embarrassingly close. State Representative Robert Foster who polled 18% in the primary and also ran hard against Reeves has endorsed Waller and enthusiastically campaigned for him. An underwhelming performance today is not what Reeves needs ahead of a competitive general election against Jim Hood who easily prevailed in the Democratic primary with nearly 70% of the vote in a 7 way race. Furthermore the major concern for Reeves is where he under performed three weeks ago. He won 74 of Mississippi's 82 counties but Waller took all three of the counties making up the greater Jackson area including Reeves home county of Rankin. Waller also clammed Lafayette county which is centred on Oxford and home the University of Mississippi while Foster took DeSoto county which is essentially the southern suburbs of Memphis spilling over the state border. Essentially this was a suburban revolt against Reeves and it must be a concern for his team that voters like these could easily vote for Hood in November. Tate Reeves has indeed won the run-off, 55.62-44.38 when the AP called it with 64.54% of precincts reporting. 54.3% v 45.7% in the end. Probably just about par for Reeves, not a great result but not embarrassingly close either. Waller has said that he isn't prepared to endorse Reeves as things stand.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Aug 28, 2019 17:47:35 GMT
Senator Johnny Isakson (R-Georgia) to resign his seat at the end of 2019. Means both of Georgia's Senate seats will be up, as open seats, in 2020 - possibly both in November. Possibly worth watching as Georgia is developing purplish tendencies. The special election will take place in November 2020. Georgia is one of 36 states where in the event of a Senate vacancy the Governor appoints a replacement who serves until the next regularly scheduled statewide election. Gov Kemp has a pretty big decision to make and the national party will want him to pick a mainstream appointee who they can quickly get behind. They won't want a placeholder appointment leading to a free for all in the primary. Especially as Georgia special elections are a jungle primary on Election Day (so November 2020), followed by a runoff in December if nobody got 50%.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Aug 28, 2019 19:42:39 GMT
Republicans will start as favourites to hold both seats. Georgia is getting more purple but it has a very high Republican floor thanks to racial polarisation. Trump won by 5.1% in 2016 making it 7% more Republican than the nation as a whole. Republicans won the gubernatorial election in 2018 by 1.4% while the nation leaned about 8% Democratic. Parts of Atlanta are trending at lightning pace towards the Democrats but Republicans retain near monolithic strength with WWC voters outside the metro areas and racial polarisation means that even outer Atlanta is much more Republican than suburbs outside the South.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 31, 2019 10:53:15 GMT
Interesting development in Massachusetts where Sen Ed Markey, who has served in congress since 1976, was considered a shoe in for re-election next year as he is both reasonably popular and has solid left wing credentials. However Rep Joe Kennedy, grandson of RFK, has said that he is strongly considering a primary run against Markey. A poll out this week had Kennedy up 42 - 25 and it appears that the Kennedy name still carries a lot of weight in Massachusetts.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 31, 2019 11:24:34 GMT
Interesting development in Massachusetts where Sen Ed Markey, who has served in congress since 1976, was considered a shoe in for re-election next year as he is both reasonably popular and has solid left wing credentials. However Rep Joe Kennedy, grandson of RFK, has said that he is strongly considering a primary run against Markey. A poll out this week had Kennedy up 42 - 25 and it appears that the Kennedy name still carries a lot of weight in Massachusetts. One suggestion from the Mayor of Boston on WEEI, who’s apparently close to the Kennedy clan, is that Kennedy is actually using this to position himself for Warren’s seat should she either: become President, a Cabinet member in A.N. Other’s Democratic Administration, or won’t seek re-election at the end of her present term.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 31, 2019 11:26:38 GMT
Interesting development in Massachusetts where Sen Ed Markey, who has served in congress since 1976, was considered a shoe in for re-election next year as he is both reasonably popular and has solid left wing credentials. However Rep Joe Kennedy, grandson of RFK, has said that he is strongly considering a primary run against Markey. A poll out this week had Kennedy up 42 - 25 and it appears that the Kennedy name still carries a lot of weight in Massachusetts. One suggestion from the Mayor of Boston on WEEI, who’s apparently close to the Kennedy clan, is that Kennedy is actually using this to position himself for Warren’s seat should she either: become President, a Cabinet member in A.N. Other’s Democratic Administration, or won’t seek re-election at the end of her present term. Certainly possible but if polling consistently shows him beating Markey the chances of him jumping in will only grow.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 5, 2019 0:25:24 GMT
As there’s been a mini flurry of retirement announcements from Congress today I wondered if it would be helpful to see where we’re at (worth a separate thread?):
Senate
Lamar Alexander (R), Tennessee Mike Enzi (R), Wyoming Johnny Isakson (R), Georgia (resigning in December) Pat Roberts (R), Kansas Tom Udall, (D), New Mexico
House
Rob Bishop (R), Utah 1st Rob Woodall (R), Georgia 7th José Serrano (D), New York 15th Dave Loebsack (D), Iowa 2nd Susan Brooks (R), Indiana 5th Paul Mitchell (R), Michigan 10th Pete Olsen (R), Texas 22nd Martha Roby (R), Alabama 2nd Mike Conaway (R), Texas 11th Will Hurd (R), Texas 23rd Kenny Marchant (R), Texas 24th John Shimkus (R), Illinois 15th Bill Flores (R), Texas 17th Susan Davis (D), California 53rd Jim Sensenbrenner (R), Wisconsin 5th Sean Duffy (R), Wisconsin 7th (resigning September 27th)
Two incumbents are not defending their seats to seek election to the Senate:
Bradley Byrne (R), Alabama 1st Ben Ray Lujàn (D), New Mexico 3rd
And one incumbent is leaving the House to run for Governor:
Greg Gianforte (R), Montana At-Large
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 5, 2019 10:42:42 GMT
Very top-heavy with Republicans that list - I suppose that might tell us something?
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Post by matureleft on Sept 5, 2019 11:13:02 GMT
There look to be opportunities for several Democrat pick ups from that list, particularly in the Texas delegation, and Georgia 7th was a hair's breadth last time.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 5, 2019 11:15:22 GMT
There look to be opportunities for several Democrat pick ups from that list, particularly in the Texas delegation, and Georgia 7th was a hair's breadth last time. Will Hurd’s district is very winnable, but on the other hand Dave Loebsack’s Iowa district is trending quite rightwards (almost went for Romney in 2012 IIRC).
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 5, 2019 18:51:42 GMT
Very top-heavy with Republicans that list - I suppose that might tell us something? Definitely, especially as some of those Republicans are not in traditional retirement age (Sensenbrenner is an obvious exception as the second longest serving member), but the skew towards Republicans does suggest little confidence that they’re going to be back in the Majority in January 2021.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 7, 2019 9:22:42 GMT
A small boost for the re-election chances of Sen Susan Collins (R-ME). Freshman Rep Jared Golden (D-ME) has said that he will remain neutral when it comes to the Senate race.
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Post by timrollpickering on Sept 8, 2019 18:19:11 GMT
Mark Kelly, husband of shot Congresswoman Gaby Giffords, is seeking the Democratic nomination to challenge Martha McSally in the Arizona Senate Special Election in 2020 (remainder of John McCain's term). The chair of the Arizona Republican Party has written: "Support the Republican Party of Arizona today and, together, we'll stop gun-grabber Mark Kelly dead in his tracks." www.nytimes.com/2019/09/07/us/kelli-ward-email-mark-kelly.htmlElsewhere there are two special elections in North Carolina on Tuesday, including the messy 9th.
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Izzyeviel
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Post by Izzyeviel on Sept 11, 2019 0:39:12 GMT
North Carolina 09 seems to be a nailbiter. I'm having tech issues so I can't post the tweet, but the Dem challenger has a narrow lead after 22%
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 11, 2019 0:50:51 GMT
North Carolina 09 seems to be a nailbiter. I'm having tech issues so I can't post the tweet, but the Dem challenger has a narrow lead after 22% Live results from the AP (you may need to periodically hit refresh) elections.ap.org/dailykos/election_results/2019-09-10/state/NC/race/G/raceid/34975Meanwhile, not surprisingly, the AP have called NC03 (death of Walter Jones) for Republican Greg Murphy. He’s currently leading 59-40 in a District Trump won 61-37. EDIT: The AP call NC09 for Republican Dan Bishop, ahead 50.85-48.55 with just two precincts in Mecklenberg County to report.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 11, 2019 14:14:59 GMT
Warren ties Biden in new poll and Sanders isn't far behind.
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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 11, 2019 14:19:48 GMT
Democrats appear to be underperforming on their 2018 numbers (still much better than '16) in special elections across the country, though we don't have too much data to go off as of yet.
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