maxque
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Post by maxque on Apr 29, 2018 16:41:02 GMT
It was also frequently said during the House Special Election to replace Ryan Zinke that Montana may be Republican but isn’t particularly Trump Republican. I suspect Tester won’t be badly hurt by this because pretty much every veteran’s organisation had expressed reservations about Jackson so it doesn’t seem like mud will stick, particularly if Tester supports a more credible replacement nominee. I don't think he will be badly hurt by this either. I just think Trump going after Tester big time, in a way that he probably won't for Manchin and Heitkamp, could well have a small impact that is a enough to swing what it is likely to be a close race. It isn't about issue itself, it is about Trump going after him over and over again and potentially going all in in his support of his opponent. As if Trump could stay focused on that for more than a week.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 29, 2018 17:14:34 GMT
Interesting that none of the three major handicappers, Inside Politics (Stu Rothenberg/Nathan Gonzalez), UVa Center for Politics Crystal Ball (Larry Sabato) or Cook Political Report (Charlie Cook) have re-rated this from Likely Democrat/Leans Democrat/Tilt Democrat their respective second safest category amongst potentially competitive races. I find Charlie Cook's rating of "Likely Democrat" to be very dubious, especially as he has West Virginia as a Toss Up. I certainly consider Manchin to be a safer bet for re-election than Tester. Of course we haven't had a single poll of this race yet so to a certain degree we are all in the dark.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 29, 2018 18:22:15 GMT
Interesting that none of the three major handicappers, Inside Politics (Stu Rothenberg/Nathan Gonzalez), UVa Center for Politics Crystal Ball (Larry Sabato) or Cook Political Report (Charlie Cook) have re-rated this from Likely Democrat/Leans Democrat/Tilt Democrat their respective second safest category amongst potentially competitive races. I find Charlie Cook's rating of "Likely Democrat" to be very dubious, especially as he has West Virginia as a Toss Up. I certainly consider Manchin to be a safer bet for re-election than Tester. Of course we haven't had a single poll of this race yet so to a certain degree we are all in the dark. I read his ratings a few weeks ago, a friend in North Carolina subscribes to his full Report, and the West Virginia rating on Manchin was almost entirely predicated on the Manchin personal vote being over exaggerated in the way Mark Warner was in Virginia last cycle and the Trump popularity being greater than the Manchin popularity. He added the caveat that his model said tossup, his head said easy Manchin hold.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 29, 2018 18:46:09 GMT
I find Charlie Cook's rating of "Likely Democrat" to be very dubious, especially as he has West Virginia as a Toss Up. I certainly consider Manchin to be a safer bet for re-election than Tester. Of course we haven't had a single poll of this race yet so to a certain degree we are all in the dark. I read his ratings a few weeks ago, a friend in North Carolina subscribes to his full Report, and the West Virginia rating on Manchin was almost entirely predicated on the Manchin personal vote being over exaggerated in the way Mark Warner was in Virginia last cycle and the Trump popularity being greater than the Manchin popularity. He added the caveat that his model said tossup, his head said easy Manchin hold. The limited polling evidence we have suggests that Cook's model is based on incorrect assumptions. I will re-post this from last September West Virginia Metro News have released a poll, conducted by Repass and Research America Inc, that gives Joe Manchin a double digit lead against either of his likely challengers and shows his approval rating as being better than that of Trump.
Manchin: 50 Jenkins: 40
Manchin: 52 Morrisey: 38
Sen Manchin: Approve 51, Disapprove 34 Sen Moore-Capito: Approve 40, Disapprove 38 Gov Justice: Approve 34, Disapprove 44 President Trump: Approve 48, Disapprove 39
Usual caveats about sample size and it being a long way out but like many of us expected Joe Manchin looks in decent shape for re-election.And let us not forget that in 2012 Manchin won re-election by 24 points on the same day that Romney carried the state by 27 points. There is clear evidence that he has a substantial personal vote.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 29, 2018 18:54:10 GMT
I read his ratings a few weeks ago, a friend in North Carolina subscribes to his full Report, and the West Virginia rating on Manchin was almost entirely predicated on the Manchin personal vote being over exaggerated in the way Mark Warner was in Virginia last cycle and the Trump popularity being greater than the Manchin popularity. He added the caveat that his model said tossup, his head said easy Manchin hold. The limited polling evidence we have suggests that Cook's model is based on incorrect assumptions. I will re-post this from last September West Virginia Metro News have released a poll, conducted by Repass and Research America Inc, that gives Joe Manchin a double digit lead against either of his likely challengers and shows his approval rating as being better than that of Trump.
Manchin: 50 Jenkins: 40
Manchin: 52 Morrisey: 38
Sen Manchin: Approve 51, Disapprove 34 Sen Moore-Capito: Approve 40, Disapprove 38 Gov Justice: Approve 34, Disapprove 44 President Trump: Approve 48, Disapprove 39
Usual caveats about sample size and it being a long way out but like many of us expected Joe Manchin looks in decent shape for re-election.I don’t think his model is wrong per se, in that it doesn’t by design factor in a personal vote. It would include strong movement to the Republicans at all levels over probably 20 years, and demographics that on paper don’t favour them. Realistically I’d suggest Manchin was still the only Democrat who could win in West Virginia. That poll looks somewhat dubious, I’d expect Trump’s approval to be significantly higher in WV, and Justice seems on the low side unless his Party switch hurt him.
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Post by tiberius on Apr 29, 2018 19:18:54 GMT
The limited polling evidence we have suggests that Cook's model is based on incorrect assumptions. I will re-post this from last September West Virginia Metro News have released a poll, conducted by Repass and Research America Inc, that gives Joe Manchin a double digit lead against either of his likely challengers and shows his approval rating as being better than that of Trump.
Manchin: 50 Jenkins: 40
Manchin: 52 Morrisey: 38
Sen Manchin: Approve 51, Disapprove 34 Sen Moore-Capito: Approve 40, Disapprove 38 Gov Justice: Approve 34, Disapprove 44 President Trump: Approve 48, Disapprove 39
Usual caveats about sample size and it being a long way out but like many of us expected Joe Manchin looks in decent shape for re-election.I don’t think his model is wrong per se, in that it doesn’t by design factor in a personal vote. It would include strong movement to the Republicans at all levels over probably 20 years, and demographics that on paper don’t favour them. Realistically I’d suggest Manchin was still the only Democrat who could win in West Virginia. That poll looks somewhat dubious, I’d expect Trump’s approval to be significantly higher in WV, and Justice seems on the low side unless his Party switch hurt him. I think Ojeda (the D nominee for the 3rd district in the coalfields region of the state) could win this seat if it was open. He's doing well in WV-03, and he could win statewide with a map fairly similar (with perhaps a statewide pro-R uniform swing of a few points) to WV-GOV in 2016, when Justice won as a Democrat.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 29, 2018 19:34:29 GMT
I think Ojeda (the D nominee for the 3rd district in the coalfields region of the state) could win this seat if it was open. He's doing well in WV-03, and he could win statewide with a map fairly similar (with perhaps a statewide pro-R uniform swing of a few points) to WV-GOV in 2016, when Justice won as a Democrat. Former Gov Earl Ray Tomblin would likely be competitive as well, possibly also state Treasurer John Perdue.
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Post by tiberius on Apr 29, 2018 19:50:49 GMT
I think Ojeda (the D nominee for the 3rd district in the coalfields region of the state) could win this seat if it was open. He's doing well in WV-03, and he could win statewide with a map fairly similar (with perhaps a statewide pro-R uniform swing of a few points) to WV-GOV in 2016, when Justice won as a Democrat. Former Gov Earl Ray Tomblin would likely be competitive as well, possibly also state Treasurer John Perdue. I suppose he could make it a race, but he's probably retired from politics for good, bar a situation were he feels he has to run since the party has no other likely candidates. Purdue is in 'could be competitive' territory as well, but he's 67, so it's possible he never runs for any federal office at all.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 29, 2018 20:30:25 GMT
Former Gov Earl Ray Tomblin would likely be competitive as well, possibly also state Treasurer John Perdue. I suppose he could make it a race, but he's probably retired from politics for good, bar a situation were he feels he has to run since the party has no other likely candidates. Purdue is in 'could be competitive' territory as well, but he's 67, so it's possible he never runs for any federal office at all. A agree that neither are likely to run for federal office but I was just thinking of them both as potentially competitive if they did. In general though if the Democrats are to have a serious future in West Virginia it will be through candidates like Ojeda.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Apr 29, 2018 21:14:30 GMT
To add to the Montana discussion, it should be remembered that Montana has a lot of swing voters. Obama came close in 2008, Tester obviously won in 2006 and 2012 while governor Steve Bullock has won in 2012 and 2016. Furthermore, there's a lot of Democrats in the legislature representing very Trump seats (and many of them are not longstanding incumbents). While increasing partisanship has hurt Democrats, all Tester actually needs is a decent Democrat enthusiasm advantage (vey likely) and get a chunk of ticket splitters to continue doing so.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2018 14:01:52 GMT
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on May 7, 2018 23:18:52 GMT
Interestingly, it looks like his and Charlie Dent's seats will be elected at the same time as the redrawn seats are, meaning it is very possible some candidates will win the vacancies for 2 months but lose the election for the 2 years after. The special elections will take place sooner than that. When a vacancy occurs the Governor has 10 days to announce a special election and that election must take place within 60 days of the announcement. They are no primaries and local party leaders choose the candidates. I must apologise for having inadvertently misled the forum. It seems that my information that came from two usually reliable US political sites was incorrect. Governor Wolf has called the special election for PA-07, vacated by Pat Meehan, for 6th November and announced that he will do the same for any other vacancies that occur during the rest of this year. Dent has not yet resigned or announced a date for his resignation, he has merely said that he will resign in "the coming weeks". Tomorrow sees the start of a busy few months of primaries with voters going to the polls in Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina and West Virginia. If I get time I will post something a bit more detailed tomorrow afternoon but the most important race to watch is the GOP senate primary in West Virginia where there is a three way race between Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, Rep Evan Jenkins and coal baron and convicted criminal Don Blankenship. The GOP leadership are terrified that Blankenship will win and hand Joe Manchin and easy path to re-election.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on May 8, 2018 2:39:55 GMT
Blankenship is claiming to be Trumpier than Trump.
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Post by timmullen1 on May 8, 2018 6:55:42 GMT
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mondialito
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Post by mondialito on May 8, 2018 7:28:45 GMT
China people???
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on May 8, 2018 8:39:33 GMT
China people??? And apparently it’s not racist because he doesn’t mention “an ethnic”; the only “ethnics” include “negro people” 😦
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jamie
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Post by jamie on May 8, 2018 15:59:54 GMT
Blankenship is now threatening to run as an Independent if he doesn’t win the Primary, although it seems he’s got a personal grudge with Morrissey so he may be prepared to go quietly if Jenkins comes out on top. West Virginia has a sore loser law so if he loses the primary then he can't run in the general. Then again, when has the law stopped Blankenship?
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Izzyeviel
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Post by Izzyeviel on May 8, 2018 16:01:08 GMT
China people??? And apparently it’s not racist because he doesn’t mention “an ethnic”; the only “ethnics” include “negro people” 😦 He's not racist because Chinese isn't a race.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 8, 2018 16:10:32 GMT
West Virginia has a sore loser law so if he loses the primary then he can't run in the general. Then again, when has the law stopped Blankenship? Well it stopped him for a year by putting him in jail.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on May 8, 2018 16:34:17 GMT
Blankenship is now threatening to run as an Independent if he doesn’t win the Primary, although it seems he’s got a personal grudge with Morrissey so he may be prepared to go quietly if Jenkins comes out on top. West Virginia has a sore loser law so if he loses the primary then he can't run in the general. Then again, when has the law stopped Blankenship? According to Larry Sabato he could in theory run as a write-in, and does have the financial wherewithal to be more credible than your average write-in candidate.
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