Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,162
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 25, 2021 15:13:13 GMT
48% for a traffic light coalition in that poll. Would the FDP really sign up for that? Indeed unlikely, but not impossible. They would doubtlessly prefer a coalition with CDU&Greens. Yet, TheGreens would clearly not like to rule with 2 (mid)right parties and the negotiations 2017 failed. Funnily enough, it might be finally rather SPD than FDP, which would refuse tacitly TrafficLight in order to remain the main left force. All these CoalitionCalculations would have been few years ago purely Dutch...
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Jul 25, 2021 16:34:47 GMT
I wouldn't vote SPD, but I like Scholz. Yeah well, I wouldn't vote CSU*, but Söder has grown on me. * Would probably vote CDU on the first ballot, maybe.
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Jul 25, 2021 16:38:52 GMT
A two party coalition is starting to look unlikely after the election in September. (Unless perhaps Linke gets 4.9% and zero seats which means the percentage needed for a majority would be lower). 48% for a traffic light coalition in that poll. 47% will probably be enough, possibly even 46%. There's gonna be a whole pile of votes for the small parties. You want to see a monkey circus? Trying to coalition build an Ampel would be very much like that.
|
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,809
Member is Online
|
Post by jamie on Jul 25, 2021 16:56:05 GMT
48% for a traffic light coalition in that poll. Would the FDP really sign up for that? Whenever I see talk of traffic light, I can’t help but wonder why the FDP would join that coalition given they were too right wing to join a Jamaica one with the CDU and Greens. Given 2 of the key clashes last time were the environment and taxation, are they really going to find they have more in common with the SPD instead of the CDU, nevermind if the Greens end up in charge?
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Jul 25, 2021 16:59:46 GMT
Would the FDP really sign up for that? Whenever I see talk of traffic light, I can’t help but wonder why the FDP would join that coalition given they were too right wing to join a Jamaica one with the CDU and Greens. Given 2 of the key clashes last time were the environment and taxation, are they really going to find they have more in common with the SPD instead of the CDU, nevermind if the Greens end up in charge? Has anyone considered a fourth traffic light to make things easier?
|
|
|
Post by ibfc on Jul 25, 2021 17:03:51 GMT
Would the FDP really sign up for that? Whenever I see talk of traffic light, I can’t help but wonder why the FDP would join that coalition given they were too right wing to join a Jamaica one with the CDU and Greens. Given 2 of the key clashes last time were the environment and taxation, are they really going to find they have more in common with the SPD instead of the CDU, nevermind if the Greens end up in charge? That's exactly what I was thinking.
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Jul 25, 2021 18:50:03 GMT
Given how the parties have been behaving recently, I'm starting to believe a Belgian Coalition (also likely to be finalized soon in SnA) is the most likely outcome.
|
|
nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,637
Member is Online
|
Post by nelson on Jul 25, 2021 18:56:31 GMT
Given how the parties have been behaving recently, I'm starting to believe a Belgian Coalition (also likely to be finalized soon in SnA) is the most likely outcome. Wouldn't that be suicidal for the SPD?
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Jul 25, 2021 19:10:02 GMT
Given how the parties have been behaving recently, I'm starting to believe a Belgian Coalition (also likely to be finalized soon in SnA) is the most likely outcome. Wouldn't that be suicidal for the SPD? The SPD is, at this point, undead rather than alive. While still capable of winning local or state elections, it has no path back to 30%+ nationally and (unlike 4 years ago) it knows it. It heavily relies on "I've always voted SPD and none of the others are good either" for the votes it gets. No doubt it also attracts a few floating voters due to the only two real chancellor candidates - the ones that all the spotlight is on - being so painfully lightweight. I've gone so far as to liken a vote for the SPD to an abstention (I think I may have declared an abstention to be the more honest expression of the same sentiment) though this was, of course, polemical.
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 27, 2021 17:38:02 GMT
Die Linke in big trouble.
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Jul 30, 2021 16:37:25 GMT
So, uh, they have the right to go to court and will do so and may very well win, but as of rn it looks like infighting and incompetence have cost the Greens (list vote) ballot access in the Saar and the AfD in Bremen. (And the CDU in Bavaria, adds the Postillon.) Thank a God these are the two smallest states.
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 30, 2021 21:49:06 GMT
So, uh, they have the right to go to court and will do so and may very well win, but as of rn it looks like infighting and incompetence have cost the Greens (list vote) ballot access in the Saar and the AfD in Bremen. (And the CDU in Bavaria, adds the Postillon.) Thank a God these are the two smallest states. CDU in Bavaria? That sounds an intriguing story.
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Jul 30, 2021 21:59:14 GMT
So, uh, they have the right to go to court and will do so and may very well win, but as of rn it looks like infighting and incompetence have cost the Greens (list vote) ballot access in the Saar and the AfD in Bremen. (And the CDU in Bavaria, adds the Postillon.) Thank a God these are the two smallest states. CDU in Bavaria? That sounds an intriguing story. yes. That's the joke. Are you aware of what the Postillon is? (Obviously though they're right. The CDU won't be on the ballot in Bavaria.)
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 30, 2021 22:26:20 GMT
CDU in Bavaria? That sounds an intriguing story. yes. That's the joke. Are you aware of what the Postillon is? (Obviously though they're right. The CDU won't be on the ballot in Bavaria.) Looking it up, it appears to be Germany's Private Eye. But I was thinking of "my postillon has been struck by lightning"!
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 31, 2021 20:01:25 GMT
Is Armin Laschet some sort of agent planted by the opposition? First he takes the opportunity for a good laugh while touring flooded out homes in his own Land, now he's had to apologise after parts of his 2009 book turned out to be extensive quotes from another work which were not marked as such.
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Jul 31, 2021 21:11:23 GMT
Is Armin Laschet some sort of agent planted by the opposition? First he takes the opportunity for a good laugh while touring flooded out homes in his own Land, now he's had to apologise after parts of his 2009 book turned out to be extensive quotes from another work which were not marked as such. He went to the right universities, did the right degree, was in the correct student fraternities, is a middle aged Catholic lawyer from NRW. He is, in the eyes of the CDU elites, the ideal candidate. Most importantly, to them, he's not a Bavarian.
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Jul 31, 2021 21:31:44 GMT
If he weren't Catholic with a strong Catholiccommunity background he'd fit the very worst parts of the SPD right to a t.
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on Jul 31, 2021 21:59:58 GMT
Die Linke in big trouble. I doubt they will fall below the Funf Prozent Threshold come September, although this statement is true in the long term as they are finding it difficult to recruit younger voters or appeal to well-educated voters. Similar parties on the left in Europe (the Socialist Party in the Netherlands and the Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia in Czechia) are having the same problem.
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,162
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 1, 2021 5:59:40 GMT
Die Linke in big trouble. I doubt they will fall below the Funf Prozent Threshold come September, although this statement is true in the long term as they are finding it difficult to recruit younger voters or appeal to well-educated voters. Similar parties on the left in Europe (the Socialist Party in the Netherlands and the Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia in Czechia) are having the same problem. .Your assumptions were some decades ago correct, when PDS was indeed the party of the old SED-apparatshiks. But not nowadays! (Nothing more exciting than a progressive, who is outdated...) ExitPolls of InfratestDimap & ForschungsGruppeWahlen for BTW 2017:
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,162
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 1, 2021 6:23:57 GMT
It is right, though, that the Dutch SP has bad prospects: And the Czech KSCM even worse ones:
|
|