Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 13, 2020 16:11:02 GMT
Dortmund:
mayor:
30.0% SPD 25.0% GREENS 23.5% CDU
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,212
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 13, 2020 16:15:40 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 13, 2020 16:17:11 GMT
InfratestDimap:
16-24 years old: 33% (+16%) GREENS pensionists: 9% GREENS
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 13, 2020 16:17:43 GMT
Most important issue:
1st Environment 2nd Economy
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 13, 2020 16:26:00 GMT
These numbers are all based on the a poll of InfratestDimap (n=15.000).
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 13, 2020 17:28:21 GMT
2nd ProGnosis of InfratestDimap: NRW: Dortmund, mayor: Cologne, mayor:
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 13, 2020 17:32:37 GMT
Sensation in MönchenGladbach, always CDU-run since 1945 (except 2004-2014): Their candidate is 10% behind the SPD-one (29%:38%).
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 13, 2020 17:56:05 GMT
3rd ProGnosis (without much movement since 19 o'clock):
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 13, 2020 18:55:49 GMT
Laschet's trying to spin this result as a huge win because of the size of the CDU's lead vs the SPD. If you think that's desperate, wait til you hear the Social Democrats "celebrating" a "change of trend" because at least they're not behind the Greens. Statewide. In NRW.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 13, 2020 19:12:39 GMT
InfratestDimap (as always) with their large (n=15.000) OpinionPoll: Age 25- (left) and 60+ (right): Age 16-24: Age CDU: Age SPD: Sexes (Men left, WoMen right):
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 14, 2020 1:08:53 GMT
Strongest party in the councils: THE GREENS first in Cologne and Bonn (and nearly in the UniversityTown of Münster). CDU held Essen and will likely regain Düsseldorf in the RunOff. In several cities the SPD- or GREENS-candidates should win in the second round because of majorities for the 3 left parties alltogether.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 14, 2020 4:03:04 GMT
I was just about to ask the same question. Seems incongruous; and would be unthinkable for the UK greens to form an alliance with out current party of the right! Three things to remember: 1. Our Greens are to the left of most European Green parties bar the Green-Left types. 2. There is a massive crossover between Green and Catholic political traditions in parts of Germany (see Heinrich Böll as an example). 3. These arrangements are surprisingly common in some parts of Europe and uncommon elsewhere. The two green parties are minor coalition parties in Belgium's right-liberal led coalition, and in Austria are in power with the most right-leaning ÖVP for years. Denmark's Greens were expelled from the European Greens for cooperating with a syncretic eurosceptic outfit.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 14, 2020 10:06:39 GMT
I forgot to mention that Germany, Portugal and Switzerland (and probably others) have two Green parties. The German one, the OeDP (Ecological Democratic Party), are effectively a cross between the Greens and the CSU and have one MEP. The Portuguese Partido da terra was in a cartel with the centre-right and did have parliamentary representation for some time.
The Hungarian Green Party had a paramilitary wing and was essentially an ecofascist outfit.
Nowhere beats France, which had (at a minimum) four green parties of varying shades. They often splinter and merge with each other. And they are likely to have a real barney about a joint candidacy at the next presidential election, as the EELV leaders are somewhat lightweight and the leader of Generation Ecologie, Delphine Batho, actually has a profile.
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 14, 2020 10:56:30 GMT
I forgot to mention that Germany, Portugal and Switzerland (and probably others) have two Green parties. The German one, the OeDP (Ecological Democratic Party), are effectively a cross between the Greens and the CSU and have one MEP. The Portuguese Partido da terra was in a cartel with the centre-right and did have parliamentary representation for some time. The Hungarian Green Party had a paramilitary wing and was essentially an ecofascist outfit. Nowhere beats France, which had (at a minimum) four green parties of varying shades. They often splinter and merge with each other. And they are likely to have a real barney about a joint candidacy at the next presidential election, as the EELV leaders are somewhat lightweight and the leader of Generation Ecologie, Delphine Batho, actually has a profile.Although most of that from her time in the PS.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 14, 2020 16:02:32 GMT
I forgot to mention that Germany, Portugal and Switzerland (and probably others) have two Green parties. The German one, the OeDP (Ecological Democratic Party), are effectively a cross between the Greens and the CSU and have one MEP. The Portuguese Partido da terra was in a cartel with the centre-right and did have parliamentary representation for some time. The Hungarian Green Party had a paramilitary wing and was essentially an ecofascist outfit. Nowhere beats France, which had (at a minimum) four green parties of varying shades. They often splinter and merge with each other. And they are likely to have a real barney about a joint candidacy at the next presidential election, as the EELV leaders are somewhat lightweight and the leader of Generation Ecologie, Delphine Batho, actually has a profile. Additionally Croatia has had several Greens ("Zeleni"), but only exSDPish ORaH was polling high for some time. Austria's bourgeois version ("VereingteGrüneÖ./VGÖ") were ahead of the WaterMelons 1983 (but both failed), 1986 they merged plus the Whites were absorbed by the Reds and died in the 1990ies. In Carinthia, where they survived longer, parts of them were taken by J.Haider into FPÖ, which had discovered natural protection as the first of the parliamentary parties in the late 1980ies - here and in Germany there were not few (ex)Nazis among the first environmentalists...
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 14, 2020 16:03:17 GMT
The MetaMorphosis of AfD in NrWf:
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 14, 2020 18:58:23 GMT
Georg Ebner all the leadership candidates for the CDU leadership election are from this state. Do today's results help or hurt any of the candidates in that contest? Indeed - all are from NRW. (For the PMship CSU's Söder will also be in play, but more theoretically.) Laschet as the leader of CDU-NRW and regional PM is especially responsible, though, and thus the "good" OutCome yesterDay - in fact CDU's worst result ever, but they remain the big-tent party ("VolksPartei") - will help him at the PartyConvention.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 14, 2020 20:08:07 GMT
DeViations of NRW in federal elections (italics = European):
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Georg Ebner
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Posts: 9,212
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 16, 2020 13:10:35 GMT
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 16, 2020 17:21:20 GMT
Notes: The seven maps on the left show all the parties over 3% (AfD weakest of these at 4.4%). The 14%+ color is actually 16%+ for Left and the more northerly of the FDP neighborhoods in the south, 24%+ (and a 1%+ lead) for the southerly. Despite their physical closeness these two places have nothing in common and few links. The northern one (Hahnwald) is filthy rich, the southern one (Godorf) is separated from the Rhine by a big whopping refinery. The place frankly stinks. However, it's just the kind of place to give a personal vote to the one candidate from there rather than the two nicer places further down the Rhine that it shares a constituency with, and the FDP is just the party to benefit from an unpolitical personal vote (and I have a pet theory that NRW's local election system - mmp without vote splitting - has helped keep its FDP so curiously alive and well). Have a look at the east central (geographically central) part of Kalk borough - these neighborhoods are far less posh than the suburbs of the far east of the borough, though they are suburban. They had, however, a locally wellknown FDP constituency candidate. The area in white in the lead map is an exact tie between CDU and SPD. The turnout map shows a strong center-periphery split which is not uncommon nowadays. The Green map and the Volt (sort of an exaggerated, retro, Green map) map do the same. The Left seems to have done not so bad on the peripheral estates (as well as insanely well in the oldgrowth Turks-and-proles-and-some-young-hipsters areas on the inner Right Bank)? Votes coming back from the AfD? Or a Turkish Vote? Nothing much to say about the others except that the FDP map is really not correlated with anything at all. Speaking of correlation - the Left, AfD and Volt mayoral candidates' neighborhood results all show a .98 correlation with the party vote though the leftwingers did marginally better, the AfD candidate slightly worse than his party. The SPD candidate's correlation is only .87 - he also did about 5 points better than his party. He did most markedly better in Chorweiler borough, which he represents in the Landtag (along with the outer parts of Nippes borough). In a few neighborhoods in Porz borough he actually did worse than the party, though the neighborhood results across that borough are surprisingly variable. Conversely Reker did 5 points worse than (CDU+Greens), 10 points worse than (CDU+Greens+FDP) - the FDP had endorsed her too, again mostly uniformly (correlation .90; .88 ignoring the FDP). I thought at first to map Reker's result, but eventually decided to do it in the form of a lead map. There were two other mayoral candidates over 3%; a young woman running as "Klimafreunde" outperforming the council list she also lead (but they still won two seats) but her results show a .80 correlation with Volt's and a .76 correlation with the Greens' so that's kind of boring and I didn't map it. And some Italo-German businessman who was assumed to mostly take some CDU votes from Reker but whose result is not very correlated with the CDU's - indeed it isn't strongly correlated with anything (the strongest correlation, .58, is with Reker. The next strongest correlation, with turnout and with the FDP, are already under .5. Though that is actually the strongest correlation for the FDP.) Hence why I mapped him. Rightclick twice for full size.
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