Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 20, 2020 16:00:22 GMT
Finally all results are in. Councils:
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 20, 2020 16:03:51 GMT
Councils, change 2014-2020: AfD: Participation: CSU: FDP: FW: GREENS: Others: SPD: WählerGemeinschaften (coordinated Independents):
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 20, 2020 16:07:30 GMT
Councils, PartyStrength: AfD: Participation: CSU: FDP: FW: GREENS: Others: SPD: WälerGemeinschaften:
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 28, 2020 21:07:13 GMT
Bavaria's in round 1 unelected mayors & DistrictLeaders will be found out tomorrow (only via post). In Munich it is very clear - the SPD-incumbent received 48% and is polled at 70%. SPD has been permanently in power since 1945 (except 1 period). In Nuremberg it will be more interesting: SPD&GREENS got already nearly 50% two weeks ago, what makes a CSU-capture still very unlikely (and SPD has governed always there since 1945 [less 1996-2002]) - but not impossible after sharp losses of SPD in the CouncilElection (from 43% to 26%). The CSU-candidate came into the PolePosition, slightly ahead of his SPD-opponent in PM Söder's HomeTown.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 28, 2020 22:09:06 GMT
The situation in Regensburg is similar to Nuremberg: SPD is favoured to defend the mayor, in the case of Regensburg the incumbent is endorsed by GREENS and even by the exSPD-predecessor accused of corruption. Yet, the CSU-challenger - also a woman - accused the uncharismatic mayor of incompetence in the actual fight against the virus. Could work - or backfire badly.
In Augsburg CSU is highly likely to retain the mayorality (43%, 40% for SPD&GREENS&LEFT).
The votes - all postal, as mentioned - will be counted slowly and partly not before MonDay.
Trivia: It has caused controversies, that the teachers have been forced by the city of Munich to conduct counting.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 29, 2020 17:23:07 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 29, 2020 17:25:14 GMT
In Nuremberg the CSU-Challenger is indeed ahead (~52%)! Landsberg will remain FDP (the GREENS being chanceless). Bamberg was SPD vs. GREENS, SPD won.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 29, 2020 17:30:46 GMT
Ingolstadt will go to SPD (60%), for the first time in 50 years (SPD-run only 1952-1955 & 1962-1972). Not undeserved, as CSU has been divided and plagued by corruption for many years in the city of federal HomeSecretary and exPM Seehofer.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 29, 2020 18:03:39 GMT
Hard to detect a general trend.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 31, 2020 14:59:52 GMT
Regensburg was narrowliest (50.74%) defended by SPD. Rosenheim-Land should remain at CSU, enabling me to present this map: White means, that no election took place. If added, we get this:
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 1, 2020 15:11:38 GMT
Change of leaders in districts (or mayors in cities, which are districts of their own): Winners: Lo(o)sers: CSU +7: Nuremberg, Bayreuth, Ansbach; MainSpessart, Tirschenreuth, DingolfingLandau, Miesbach CSU -7: Ingolstadt, Hof, Schwabach; BayreuthLand, Freising, Pfaffenhofen, OberAllgäu SPD +3: Ingolstadt, Hof, Schwabach; SPD -2: Nuremberg; DingolfingLandau Greens -1: Miesbach FW/others +4: BayreuthLand, Freising, Pfaffenhofen, OberAllgäu FW/others -4: Ansbach, Bayreuth; MainSpessart, Tirschenreuth
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 1, 2020 20:53:51 GMT
Bavarian population governed by a mayor or DistrictChief of which party:
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Post by ibfc on Apr 2, 2020 4:13:23 GMT
Bavarian population governed by a mayor or DistrictChief of which party: Surprised to see the CSU percentage increase. They must be satisfied I guess.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 3, 2020 1:12:03 GMT
Bavarian population governed by a mayor or DistrictChief of which party: Surprised to see the CSU percentage increase. They must be satisfied I guess. In the councils they lost over 5%, not much less than SPD. Also Regensburg and others were narrowly missed - yet Nuremberg was indeed a nice gain, so CSU is certainly not pleased, but satified.
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 27, 2020 10:26:40 GMT
The next CDU leader will probably only be ballot-tested prior to the federal election in Baden-Wattemburg and Rhineland (March 2021), Thuringia (scheduled for, but can be delayed from, April 2021) and Berlin and Mecklenburg-West Pomenaria (September 2021 at the latest). Especially if there was to be a loss of confidence in the new leader as late as the last two contests, the party would need to unite quickly around an alternative. Who are the likely candidates for a Conservative-style coup?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 27, 2020 10:53:48 GMT
The next CDU leader will probably only be ballot-tested prior to the federal election in Baden-Wattemburg and Rhineland (March 2021), Thuringia (scheduled for, but can be delayed from, April 2021) and Berlin and Mecklenburg-West Pomenaria (September 2021 at the latest). Especially if there was to be a loss of confidence in the new leader as late as the last two contests, the party would need to unite quickly around an alternative. Who are the likely candidates for a Conservative-style coup? There's a precedent for this, and it involves none other than Angela Merkel and Friedrich Merz. In 2002, the pair spent so much time knifing each other for the leadership that when Merkel eventually triumphed, she was swept out of the way by the CSU's Edmund Stoiber. The last two CSU candidates for chancellor, Strauss and Stoiber, failed despite their huge popularity at home (Stoiber did gently increase the number of seats though, Strauss oversaw a modest loss). Markus Soeder, however, is a different beast. He is clearly Bavarian, but not in that cut-out way that the other two were. For starters, he's a Prod, he's not a Bayern Munich fan*, he's from Franconia rather than Bavaria proper- and therefore he has more obvious widespread appeal in a country where this stuff really does matter. * He sits on the board of 1. FC Nuernberg- alongside Gunter Beckstein, who is the only other Franconian Prod to become Minister-President.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 5, 2020 18:10:07 GMT
The district of "Harz" in Saxony-Anhalt was retained by CDU today (55%, nearly everything counted).
In the capital, Halberstadt (40.000), with most done:
40% CDU 29% Left (incumbent) 13.5% Ind. (SPD?) 11% AfD
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 6, 2020 15:22:27 GMT
The rural district of Rostock (so except the city) will elect its LandRat today. AfD has no candidate, leaving only 3: The SPD-incumbent and challengers from CDU and FW (Free Voters). The election for the council last year resulted in Left and Right being roughly equally strong, what seems to be the best OutCome for the Right since the early 1990ies (but that is difficult to estimate, because the district consists of 2 former ones abolished some years ago).
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 6, 2020 16:27:26 GMT
The rural district of Rostock (so except the city) will elect its LandRat today. AfD has no candidate, leaving only 3: The SPD-incumbent and challengers from CDU and FW (Free Voters). The election for the council last year resulted in Left and Right being roughly equally strong, what seems to be the best OutCome for the Right since the early 1990ies (but that is difficult to estimate, because the district consists of 2 former ones abolished some years ago). I forgot the TheLeft-candidate. Results cannot be detected so far.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 6, 2020 16:51:29 GMT
The rural district of Rostock (so except the city) will elect its LandRat today. AfD has no candidate, leaving only 3: The SPD-incumbent and challengers from CDU and FW (Free Voters). The election for the council last year resulted in Left and Right being roughly equally strong, what seems to be the best OutCome for the Right since the early 1990ies (but that is difficult to estimate, because the district consists of 2 former ones abolished some years ago). I forgot the TheLeft-candidate. Results cannot be detected so far. Their server broke down. Yet, first results indicated ~60% for the SPD-incumbent.
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