andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,773
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Post by andrea on Nov 23, 2012 22:47:04 GMT
Rotherham I don't know what the "astonishing outbreak of intemperance" refers to yet. Something happened outside the mosque this evening between Respect team and Jahangir Akhatar (Deputy Council Leader). The 2 sides are giving totally different versions of the events, so I don't have a clue on what really happened. |
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Post by independentukip on Nov 23, 2012 23:08:55 GMT
Rotherham I don't know what the "astonishing outbreak of intemperance" refers to yet. Something happened outside the mosque this evening between Respect team and Jahangir Akhatar (Deputy Council Leader). The 2 sides are giving totally different versions of the events, so I don't have a clue on what really happened. The Rotherham politics blog offers a verbatim record of some of the words allegedly said by Akhtar. Presumably they wouldn't be so rash as to publish those words without being in possession of a recording of the incident. |
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Post by slicesofjim on Nov 23, 2012 23:16:58 GMT
The most mystifying thing about the leaflet is the reference to Labour's 'Savile Row socialism' - the Savile Row bit I understand, but socialism? Must be a different Labour Party.
I'm starting to read that now in the sense of 'BBC in new Savile Row' rather than the road, curses.
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Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
Posts: 2,873 
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Post by Pimpernal on Nov 24, 2012 7:25:15 GMT
I wonder what the impact of the foster-care scandal will be?
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Post by iainbhx on Nov 24, 2012 8:02:18 GMT
I wonder what the impact of the foster-care scandal will be? People will play it for all it is worth, Labour will still win. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 24, 2012 11:36:36 GMT
I wonder what the impact of the foster-care scandal will be? People will play it for all it is worth, Labour will still win. I suspect the Labour candidate isn't in the best of moods this morning after listening to the news... |
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YL
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Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Nov 24, 2012 12:45:28 GMT
Rotherham I don't know what the "astonishing outbreak of intemperance" refers to yet. Something happened outside the mosque this evening between Respect team and Jahangir Akhatar (Deputy Council Leader). The 2 sides are giving totally different versions of the events, so I don't have a clue on what really happened. I think it's possible to get a reasonable idea of the incident by reading both Akhtar's version and the Rotherham Politics version. They focus on different aspects of what happened of course. UKIP backed down to 12-1 at Ladbroke's, but Respect are still second favourites at 5-1; Labour now 6-1 on. |
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Post by thirdchill on Nov 24, 2012 12:50:56 GMT
what is the size of the Asian vote there ? Not tiny but nowhere near big enough to win an election by appealing to Asians alone. (And I think Respect do know that.) Rotherham is no Bradford West. And a strategy like this will ensure respect do not win. I think labour will win but I expect a sizeable UKIP vote alongside a sizeable (but not massive) respect vote. I don't expect my party or the lib dems to do very well at all. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 24, 2012 14:30:07 GMT
Not tiny but nowhere near big enough to win an election by appealing to Asians alone. (And I think Respect do know that.) Rotherham is no Bradford West. And a strategy like this will ensure respect do not win. . Its a bit like saying that John Loonys stratgey (whtaever it is) in Croydon will ensure he doesn't win. What will ensure that they won't come even close to winning is indeed that this is no Bradford West (and also that Yvonne Ridley is no George Galloway). The bookies odds probably refelct a bit of nervousness on their part following Bradford and a fundamental misunderstanding of where Respect draws their support. Their ceiling is more or less at the level of the proportion of Muslim voters in the seat. UKIP's ceiling is very much higher |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 24, 2012 16:46:15 GMT
I think UKIP could get up to 20% here
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 24, 2012 19:11:17 GMT
Rotherham is no Bradford West. And a strategy like this will ensure respect do not win. . Its a bit like saying that John Loonys stratgey (whtaever it is) in Croydon will ensure he doesn't win. What will ensure that they won't come even close to winning is indeed that this is no Bradford West (and also that Yvonne Ridley is no George Galloway). The bookies odds probably refelct a bit of nervousness on their part following Bradford and a fundamental misunderstanding of where Respect draws their support. Their ceiling is more or less at the level of the proportion of Muslim voters in the seat. UKIP's ceiling is very much higher And Respect are extremely unlikely to get anywhere near that vote ceiling. Since Bradford we are seeing a lot of commentary by people suggesting that Respect could monopolise the Muslim vote in almost any seat. As most of us know this is palpably absurd and that for the most part Respect still get well out polled by Labour among Muslim voters. Bradford West was a one off, it won't be repeated in another by-election even if one occurs in a seat with similar demographics. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 24, 2012 21:14:24 GMT
If Respect won the Muslim vote abve Labour they would have won 1/2 seats in Brum for example, the only seats they have won is with Galloway and he will not be an MP after 2015, we all know that.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 24, 2012 21:15:01 GMT
I think UKIP could get up to 20% here at the expense of whom ? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 24, 2012 21:32:37 GMT
Its strange that it was in reply to a prediction that gave them about 14% by A Brown I think, That post now seems to have been deleted (along with another of his on another thread which I replied to). I can't remember in detail the figures he gave for all parties but I think Labour were on about 57% so against that prediction the extra 6% I am suggesting for UKIP would come largely at their expense - relative to the general election at the expense of the BNP, Tories and LDs
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 24, 2012 21:48:33 GMT
Ladbrokes' odds for Rotherham are doing a poor job of reflecting reality at the moment. There's no way Respect are more likely to win the seat than UKIP IMO:
Lab 1/6
Respect 5/1
UKIP 12/1
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 24, 2012 22:19:57 GMT
There is no way Respect are really just 5/1 to win Croydon N either. I spy ramping??
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 24, 2012 23:24:30 GMT
There is no way Respect are really just 5/1 to win Croydon N either. I spy ramping?? It would be interesting to see the volume of bets placed. I imagine it would be rather low. |
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Post by nord on Nov 25, 2012 19:47:28 GMT
BNP will beat UKIP. There is no way nearly 4k votes from 2010 will all vanish. On top of that the BNP candidate is the only actual person from the area. None of the others are from the area and are just imported career politicians.
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 25, 2012 20:26:44 GMT
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 26, 2012 0:14:48 GMT
BNP will beat UKIP. There is no way nearly 4k votes from 2010 will all vanish. On top of that the BNP candidate is the only actual person from the area. None of the others are from the area and are just imported career politicians. If the BNP vote is going to hold up anywhere then it will be here but I seriously doubt that it will. The BNP are a busted flush and UKIP, for all our flaws, should easily out poll them in this election. |
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