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Post by andrewp on Jan 26, 2018 0:09:37 GMT
I think 50 percent in a 5 way ( or 4 and a half way) election is a reasonable result for the Tories. That result is probably about par for a ward of villages in middle England in the current political climate and is encouraging for the Lib Dem’s.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,028
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Post by Khunanup on Jan 26, 2018 0:13:01 GMT
The result does represent a Liberal Democrat to Conservative swing of almost 7% since 2009 when the Liberal Democrats last contested the seat in straight fight. Indeed, but that was the different world of pre-coalition and our party almost completely collapsing on the Island in late 2012 (I cannot overstate how hollowed out our party was over there after that happened). In a five way contest with a Green Party fighting hard and even an uptick in the Labour vote to do that in a ward where the campaign was over Christmas where we haven't stood for nine years, well it's pretty good. |
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 26, 2018 0:13:08 GMT
I think 50 percent in a 5 way ( or 4 and a half way) election is a reasonable result for the Tories. That result is probably about par for a ward of villages in middle England in the current political climate and is encouraging for the Lib Dem’s. Can anyone find the actual voting figures? |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,028
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Post by Khunanup on Jan 26, 2018 0:15:32 GMT
Importantly a few of the driving forces who left during the coalition are now back in the fold and active too. As I've mentioned up thread, our old supporters coming back doesn't surprise me at all. In places like the Island, ultra parochial places, on the ground, grass roots politics will go down very well especially when a national political picture is so depressingly hopeless. One of the reasons why I predict even this far out that 2019 will be utter carnage for the Tories in areas of strength for us, especially in more rural areas. There are no elections due in this area next year. I appreciate you might have meant the 2019 locals in general, but, well... the Island is the Island, after all. Yes I am talking generally. If it hadn't been for the GE I do think we would have won a few more seas on the Island last year. Come 2021 hopefully we can push towards double figures at least. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,028
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Post by Khunanup on Jan 26, 2018 0:24:26 GMT
I think 50 percent in a 5 way ( or 4 and a half way) election is a reasonable result for the Tories. That result is probably about par for a ward of villages in middle England in the current political climate and is encouraging for the Lib Dem’s. Can anyone find the actual voting figures? Con 547 Lib Dem 286 Green 143 Lab 101 UKIP 24 |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,028
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Post by Khunanup on Jan 26, 2018 0:32:02 GMT
Flicking through general election maps on Wikipedia I have often noticed a periodic large bit of orange/yellow just of the south coast. Any chance of a Lib Dem resurgence here? Or in one of the proposed east/west constituencies? Possibly, but it'd likely take a number of local election cycles as that would be the only way to build up again. If you haven't experienced Island politics it's is utterly mystifyingly parochial compared to just about anywhere else, certainly on the mainland. But that's why we had success there, local politics for local people if you like.  East would probably be the better seat for us if it did split (but again it would take time to reallly challenge unless the 2021 locals really fell in our favour). That obviously remains to be seen as I can't see the boundary changes going through as they are currently. |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,140 
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Post by Foggy on Jan 26, 2018 0:33:34 GMT
Flicking through general election maps on Wikipedia I have often noticed a periodic large bit of orange/yellow just of the south coast. Any chance of a Lib Dem resurgence here? Or in one of the proposed east/west constituencies? That makes me wonder how far back the maps go! I think the Lib Dems will look at the 2021 results and from there decide which of the two constituencies to focus their resources on. |
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 26, 2018 1:09:44 GMT
Isle of Wight, Central Wight - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | since 2013 | since 2009 | Conservative | 547 | 49.7% | -25.5% | -2.6% | -5.3% | Liberal Democrat | 286 | 26.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -19.0% | Green | 143 | 13.0% | -5.9% | -9.2% | from nowhere | Labour | 101 | 9.2% | +3.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 24 | 2.2% | from nowhere | -23.4% | from nowhere | Total votes | 1,101 |
| 81% | 82% | 68% |
Swing not meaningful apart from possibly 2009 when Liberal Democrat to Conservative ~ 7% Council now 25 Conservative, 9 Independent Group, 2 Liberal Democrat, 2 Other, 1 Labour, 1 Green
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,749
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jan 26, 2018 9:11:48 GMT
I think 50 percent in a 5 way ( or 4 and a half way) election is a reasonable result for the Tories. That result is probably about par for a ward of villages in middle England in the current political climate and is encouraging for the Lib Dem’s. It's the lowest Tory vote in that ward so far, and the first time they've dipped below 50%. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jan 26, 2018 9:15:05 GMT
It would be good if @szczecinianin still posted here I respectfully disagree  |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,749
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jan 26, 2018 9:23:42 GMT
Isle of Wight, Central Wight - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | since 2013 | since 2009 | Conservative | 547 | 49.7% | -25.5% | -2.6% | -5.3% | Liberal Democrat | 286 | 26.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -19.0% | Green | 143 | 13.0% | -5.9% | -9.2% | from nowhere | Labour | 101 | 9.2% | +3.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 24 | 2.2% | from nowhere | -23.4% | from nowhere | Total votes | 1,101 |
| 81% | 82% | 68% |
apart from possibly 2009 when Liberal Democrat to Conservative ~ 7% Council now 25 Conservative, 9 Independent Group, 2 Liberal Democrat, 2 Other, 1 Labour, 1 Green Really? It looks like a swing of about 26% Tory -> LD from earlier this year. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 26, 2018 9:25:44 GMT
Really? It looks like a swing of about 26% Tory -> LD from earlier this year. On the assumption that 'earlier this year' means May last year, and even if there was such a thing as a swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat, no it still doesn't. Had there been a Liberal Democrat candidate in the full council elections, they would not have polled zero votes. |
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Post by andrewp on Jan 26, 2018 9:31:08 GMT
I think 50 percent in a 5 way ( or 4 and a half way) election is a reasonable result for the Tories. That result is probably about par for a ward of villages in middle England in the current political climate and is encouraging for the Lib Dem’s. It's the lowest Tory vote in that ward so far, and the first time they've dipped below 50%. True, Although part of that is the fact that there were 5 candidates. Percentage wise, it was also the Lib Dem’s lowest vote in the ward so far, Ukips lowest vote in the ward so far and the Greens lowest vote in the ward so far. |
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 26, 2018 9:38:31 GMT
Isle of Wight, Central Wight - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | since 2013 | since 2009 | Conservative | 547 | 49.7% | -25.5% | -2.6% | -5.3% | Liberal Democrat | 286 | 26.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -19.0% | Green | 143 | 13.0% | -5.9% | -9.2% | from nowhere | Labour | 101 | 9.2% | +3.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 24 | 2.2% | from nowhere | -23.4% | from nowhere | Total votes | 1,101 |
| 81% | 82% | 68% |
apart from possibly 2009 when Liberal Democrat to Conservative ~ 7% Council now 25 Conservative, 9 Independent Group, 2 Liberal Democrat, 2 Other, 1 Labour, 1 Green Really? It looks like a swing of about 26% Tory -> LD from earlier this year. If any party has not contested the previous election then swings involving it are not meaningful. Full stop. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,979
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 26, 2018 10:34:48 GMT
Labour increased their share in every January by-election contest, then.
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Jan 26, 2018 10:49:56 GMT
Labour increased their share in every January by-election contest, then. If you discount Rochford, where they didn't have a candidate when they did previously. Although looking at the figures, all of the 3 main parties on average were up by roughly the same share (Con +4.9%, Lab +6.2%, LD +5.9%) in January according to my calculations. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jan 26, 2018 13:37:49 GMT
Importantly a few of the driving forces who left during the coalition are now back in the fold and active too. As I've mentioned up thread, our old supporters coming back doesn't surprise me at all. In places like the Island, ultra parochial places, on the ground, grass roots politics will go down very well especially when a national political picture is so depressingly hopeless. One of the reasons why I predict even this far out that 2019 will be utter carnage for the Tories in areas of strength for us, especially in more rural areas. It does also show, once again, how utterly hopeless the Greens are at pavement politics. They have thrown plenty at the island when they realised how moribund we were and yet with one decent attempt we’ve reversed all of their progress. Mind you, anyone with half a brain would be able to tell you the island isn’t the most conducive place for a party to the left of Labour... It looks like a lot of the Green voters here were basically the Lib Dem voters from 2009 who had no-one to vote for and went for the next best ABT/ABL Party.. I would say the coalition toxicity for the Lib Dems has pretty much worn off with the average voter (despite being very strong in the minds of many Labour activists). However the post-2015 perception of irrelevance has not, but can be overcome at local level by strong campaigning... |
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Jan 26, 2018 15:26:02 GMT
It does also show, once again, how utterly hopeless the Greens are at pavement politics. They have thrown plenty at the island when they realised how moribund we were and yet with one decent attempt we’ve reversed all of their progress. Mind you, anyone with half a brain would be able to tell you the island isn’t the most conducive place for a party to the left of Labour... It looks like a lot of the Green voters here were basically the Lib Dem voters from 2009 who had no-one to vote for and went for the next best ABT/ABL Party.. I would say the coalition toxicity for the Lib Dems has pretty much worn off with the average voter (despite being very strong in the minds of many Labour activists). However the post-2015 perception of irrelevance has not, but can be overcome at local level by strong campaigning... This is probably the most succinct summary of where we're at i've seen on here. We need strong local results to feed into relevancy, and would be disastrous if we hoped it worked the other way round... |
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Post by andrew111 on Jan 26, 2018 16:32:54 GMT
It looks like a lot of the Green voters here were basically the Lib Dem voters from 2009 who had no-one to vote for and went for the next best ABT/ABL Party.. I would say the coalition toxicity for the Lib Dems has pretty much worn off with the average voter (despite being very strong in the minds of many Labour activists). However the post-2015 perception of irrelevance has not, but can be overcome at local level by strong campaigning... This is probably the most succinct summary of where we're at i've seen on here. We need strong local results to feed into relevancy, and would be disastrous if we hoped it worked the other way round... Maybe the toxicity has not died out among young graduates and students though.. with 40% of the student vote the future looked quite yellow in early 2010.. Shall we call it Clegg's invasion of Russia? |
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Post by tonyhill on Jan 26, 2018 16:48:32 GMT
Do you see Clegg as Napoleon or Hitler in this scenario?
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