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Post by yellowperil on Jan 24, 2018 7:58:43 GMT
Incidentally I think ricmk's description of this as a game changer was somewhat overdrawn- just UKIP catching up with what was already obvious to everybody else is hardly a game changer.
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Post by andrew111 on Jan 24, 2018 10:24:13 GMT
Incidentally I think ricmk's description of this as a game changer was somewhat overdrawn- just UKIP catching up with what was already obvious to everybody else is hardly a game changer. I think there might have been a touch of irony in ricmk's comment! When did UKIP last win a local by-election anywhere other than Hartlepool?? |
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 24, 2018 11:06:17 GMT
Incidentally I think ricmk's description of this as a game changer was somewhat overdrawn- just UKIP catching up with what was already obvious to everybody else is hardly a game changer. I think there might have been a touch of irony in ricmk's comment! When did UKIP last win a local by-election anywhere other than Hartlepool?? Gained Tendring, Great & Little Oakley from Independent on 9 February 2017. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 24, 2018 11:17:05 GMT
I think there might have been a touch of irony in ricmk's comment! When did UKIP last win a local by-election anywhere other than Hartlepool?? Gained Tendring, Great & Little Oakley from Independent on 9 February 2017. yes that was the one that proved the rule- I believe UKIP have lost all 11 of their defences in " normal" local by elections last year, and that was the solitary gain. |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Jan 24, 2018 13:45:36 GMT
Incidentally I think ricmk's description of this as a game changer was somewhat overdrawn- just UKIP catching up with what was already obvious to everybody else is hardly a game changer. I think there might have been a touch of irony in ricmk's comment! When did UKIP last win a local by-election anywhere other than Hartlepool?? A touch? More like a great dollop of in yer face sarcasm. Didn't think it was that subtle. Of course if UKIP do get anywhere I'm claiming full Mystic Meg credit. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 24, 2018 16:05:25 GMT
I think there might have been a touch of irony in ricmk's comment! When did UKIP last win a local by-election anywhere other than Hartlepool?? A touch? More like a great dollop of in yer face sarcasm. Didn't think it was that subtle. Of course if UKIP do get anywhere I'm claiming full Mystic Meg credit. Not now you have claimed there has been a game changer- unless you are expecting the one thing UKIP needed to do in order to sweep to power was to announce they were pulling out. Makes a lot of sense.  |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jan 24, 2018 18:12:16 GMT
Obviously canvass returns have been poor and this is a face saver. In fact the candidate cannot pull out but the party and candidate can cease activity and not attend the count. The Bolton affair may be a bit embarrassing but it is for me so small scale and underwhelming I cannot conceive why a serious candidate wishing to serve the public would wish to pull out and let his pledges down. This is a Wight election and nothing to to with Bolton. It is a silly stunt. We will still have to estimate the UKIP vote in the competition and that adds another difficult element. That assumes that there are canvass returns. Equally plausible is that the candidate doesn't want to be the candidate, or even in UKIP, any more. Haven't we all done this? Stand aside* at a tricky byelection for all manner of noble reasons. Because it has less of a downside than getting smashed? * I realise they can't actually stand aside, but can use this announcement to explain away a dreadful result. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Jan 25, 2018 19:07:58 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 25, 2018 23:09:50 GMT
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jan 25, 2018 23:27:54 GMT
Lib Dem PPC for Isle of Wight has tweeted that the Conservatives have won, Lib Dem’s 2nd.
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Post by Robert Waller on Jan 25, 2018 23:35:12 GMT
Lib Dem PPC for Isle of Wight has tweeted that the Conservatives have won, Lib Dem’s 2nd. Well, I think they're the two candidates who live in the ward. |
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Post by AdminSTB on Jan 25, 2018 23:38:02 GMT
Lib Dem PPC for Isle of Wight has tweeted that the Conservatives have won, Lib Dem’s 2nd. Well, I think they're the two candidates who live in the ward. That was my impression from the SOPN. Clearly a local ward for local people. Although I think the Conservative is a recent arrival. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,028
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Post by Khunanup on Jan 25, 2018 23:39:44 GMT
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jan 25, 2018 23:39:45 GMT
Cons got 49 percent, Lib Dem’s 2nd, Greens 3rd. Turnout 38 percent. Can’t find the full result yet.
Beaten to it!
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Jan 25, 2018 23:41:18 GMT
I’d been tipped off that this might happen a couple of days ago, but I didn’t really believe it. What’s most curious is that according to our team there, our (ancient) canvass returns had historic LDs as returning to us.
As someone with close family ties to the island I would dearly love for it to return as an area of strength for us. Apparently the one councillor we gained last May has his head screwed on and a lot of the old trouble makers are gone, so you never know!
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,028
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Post by Khunanup on Jan 25, 2018 23:49:06 GMT
Well, I think they're the two candidates who live in the ward. That was my impression from the SOPN. Clearly a local ward for local people. Although I think the Conservative is a recent arrival. Seemingly extremely recent bearing in mind he was living in Newport when he stood there last May (having moved from Portsmouth the previous year). Reasonable hold for the Tories (they were never going to lose it) but a poor vote share for the ward. Very happy with second (a kind of old habits die hard kind of result) with the Greens having a dreadful third place having seemingly done more campaigning than anyone else... |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Jan 25, 2018 23:57:37 GMT
I’d been tipped off that this might happen a couple of days ago, but I didn’t really believe it. What’s most curious is that according to our team there, our (ancient) canvass returns had historic LDs as returning to us. As someone with close family ties to the island I would dearly love for it to return as an area of strength for us. Apparently the one councillor we gained last May has his head screwed on and a lot of the old trouble makers are gone, so you never know! Importantly a few of the driving forces who left during the coalition are now back in the fold and active too. As I've mentioned up thread, our old supporters coming back doesn't surprise me at all. In places like the Island, ultra parochial places, on the ground, grass roots politics will go down very well especially when a national political picture is so depressingly hopeless. One of the reasons why I predict even this far out that 2019 will be utter carnage for the Tories in areas of strength for us, especially in more rural areas. |
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 25, 2018 23:59:28 GMT
The result does represent a Liberal Democrat to Conservative swing of almost 7% since 2009 when the Liberal Democrats last contested the seat in straight fight.
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,140
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Post by Foggy on Jan 26, 2018 0:07:13 GMT
I’d been tipped off that this might happen a couple of days ago, but I didn’t really believe it. What’s most curious is that according to our team there, our (ancient) canvass returns had historic LDs as returning to us. As someone with close family ties to the island I would dearly love for it to return as an area of strength for us. Apparently the one councillor we gained last May has his head screwed on and a lot of the old trouble makers are gone, so you never know! Importantly a few of the driving forces who left during the coalition are now back in the fold and active too. As I've mentioned up thread, our old supporters coming back doesn't surprise me at all. In places like the Island, ultra parochial places, on the ground, grass roots politics will go down very well especially when a national political picture is so depressingly hopeless. One of the reasons why I predict even this far out that 2019 will be utter carnage for the Tories in areas of strength for us, especially in more rural areas. There are no elections due in this area next year. I appreciate you might have meant the 2019 locals in general, but, well... the Island is the Island, after all. |
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Jan 26, 2018 0:07:34 GMT
I’d been tipped off that this might happen a couple of days ago, but I didn’t really believe it. What’s most curious is that according to our team there, our (ancient) canvass returns had historic LDs as returning to us. As someone with close family ties to the island I would dearly love for it to return as an area of strength for us. Apparently the one councillor we gained last May has his head screwed on and a lot of the old trouble makers are gone, so you never know! Importantly a few of the driving forces who left during the coalition are now back in the fold and active too. As I've mentioned up thread, our old supporters coming back doesn't surprise me at all. In places like the Island, ultra parochial places, on the ground, grass roots politics will go down very well especially when a national political picture is so depressingly hopeless. One of the reasons why I predict even this far out that 2019 will be utter carnage for the Tories in areas of strength for us, especially in more rural areas. It does also show, once again, how utterly hopeless the Greens are at pavement politics. They have thrown plenty at the island when they realised how moribund we were and yet with one decent attempt we’ve reversed all of their progress. Mind you, anyone with half a brain would be able to tell you the island isn’t the most conducive place for a party to the left of Labour... |
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