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Post by yellowperil on Jan 14, 2018 9:57:21 GMT
Isle of Wight UA, Central Wight Ward
Conservative resigned after election as MP
5 candidates:
Terry Brennan (UKIP)
Steve Hastings (Con)
Simon Peter Haytack (Lab)
Daniel Howard James (Green)
Nick Stuart (LD)
2009 election results: Con 894, LD 732
2013 election results: Con 700, UKIP 342, Green 297
2017 election results: Con 1026, Green 258, Lab 81
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Jan 14, 2018 12:17:08 GMT
A different 2nd place party for the 4th time in a row. Can't be many places where that has happened.
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 14, 2018 15:08:41 GMT
A different 2nd place party for the 4th time in a row. Can't be many places where that has happened. I assumed you were therefore including 2005 where the ward name was different (Central Rural) and there were somewhat different boundaries (which is why I haven't included it above) so difficult to count as a record, but not altogether surprising in a ward where Tories pretty certain to get elected different parties try their luck. However having checked the 2005 election it was again LDs in second. Have I missed a by-election? |
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Jan 14, 2018 17:09:52 GMT
A different 2nd place party for the 4th time in a row. Can't be many places where that has happened. I assumed you were therefore including 2005 where the ward name was different (Central Rural) and there were somewhat different boundaries (which is why I haven't included it above) so difficult to count as a record, but not altogether surprising in a ward where Tories pretty certain to get elected different parties try their luck. However having checked the 2005 election it was again LDs in second. Have I missed a by-election? I'm expecting lab to come 2nd this time hence the 4 in a row but it was very poorly worded. |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,140 
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Post by Foggy on Jan 14, 2018 17:47:28 GMT
The Greens have been campaigning hard in this division, so I'm not sure that the realisation of your expectation is going to be entirely straightforward.
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 17, 2018 9:24:18 GMT
I assumed you were therefore including 2005 where the ward name was different (Central Rural) and there were somewhat different boundaries (which is why I haven't included it above) so difficult to count as a record, but not altogether surprising in a ward where Tories pretty certain to get elected different parties try their luck. However having checked the 2005 election it was again LDs in second. Have I missed a by-election? I'm expecting lab to come 2nd this time hence the 4 in a row but it was very poorly worded. Indeed, a somewhat jiggerish expectation. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 21, 2018 2:23:21 GMT
Reading this page so far has got my head spinning.  |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 22, 2018 23:07:40 GMT
But will the ward get a visit from The Famous Vix Lowthion Who Is Really Famous?
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,140
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Post by Foggy on Jan 22, 2018 23:14:15 GMT
But will the ward get a visit from The Famous Vix Lowthion Who Is Really Famous? The local teacher campaigned there on behalf of her party's candidate 10 days ago, as far as I can see: |
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 23, 2018 10:03:53 GMT
This looks like a graveyard choice and the only good feature is the lack of unknown independents.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,028
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Post by Khunanup on Jan 23, 2018 13:15:05 GMT
Just a little background for the Conservative candidate Steve Hastings.
He stood as a Conservative in Chichester South in 2011 and came 5th (and the second Conservative) in a three member ward. Next time he popped up was as a UKIP candidate in 2014 in Portsmouth (he had defected in late 2012 I believe) where he was elected in Baffins ward. In the summer after the 2015 General Election he defected back to the Conservatives stating that his reason for being a member of UKIP was to campaign for a referendum to leave the EU and that now the Conservatives had got a majority government on that platform and the referendum would take place (and having spoken to Steve about this I believe that his defection on those grounds was entirely genuine). In late 2016 word had come across that his name had been put out on leaflets in Newport on the Isle of Wight that was talking of him as if he was a candidate there. When nominations closed for the 2017 election on the Island it was revealed that he was indeed the Conservative candidate for Newport Central ward and he divulged more widely (I understand at least some of the Conservative group were aware) that he had been living on the Island for some months. Despite standing (and losing) on the Island and living full time there he made no attempts to resign his seat in Portsmouth. Late last year there were again some rumours that he had been selected to fight the then pending by-election (which was not yet a reality as no seat had been vacated at this point) which would take place when the newly elected MP resigned his Central Wight seat. Steve was caught by surprise when instead of the seat being vacated sometime in March (and therefore an election could be called for May) the new MP resigned in December. Initially there were no moves by Cllr Hastings to resign from Portsmouth City Council despite being the candidate for the by-election and the overwhelming favourite (unlike Newport Central which was a long shot against a popular independent incumbent) and he said he would resign after the b-election had taken place. However he then resigned from the City Council out of the blue possibly prompted by Isle of Wight Conservatives to do so. Quite why he was so keen on staying on the City Council until the last possible minute is open to question as it's clearly not helping in the defence of his City Council seat by his party in May.
I would be very shocked if he doesn't win on Thursday.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 23, 2018 13:24:24 GMT
It would be good if @szczecinianin still posted here and was able to give us some local insights
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,626
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Post by ricmk on Jan 23, 2018 13:29:51 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,979
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 23, 2018 13:38:59 GMT
They can't "pull out" of the contest in any meaningful sense, of course.
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 23, 2018 15:16:38 GMT
Obviously canvass returns have been poor and this is a face saver. In fact the candidate cannot pull out but the party and candidate can cease activity and not attend the count. The Bolton affair may be a bit embarrassing but it is for me so small scale and underwhelming I cannot conceive why a serious candidate wishing to serve the public would wish to pull out and let his pledges down. This is a Wight election and nothing to to with Bolton. It is a silly stunt. We will still have to estimate the UKIP vote in the competition and that adds another difficult element. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 23, 2018 15:51:48 GMT
Obviously canvass returns have been poor and this is a face saver. In fact the candidate cannot pull out but the party and candidate can cease activity and not attend the count. The Bolton affair may be a bit embarrassing but it is for me so small scale and underwhelming I cannot conceive why a serious candidate wishing to serve the public would wish to pull out and let his pledges down. This is a Wight election and nothing to to with Bolton. It is a silly stunt.
We will still have to estimate the UKIP vote in the competition and that adds another difficult element.Be honest, Carlton, it's not that difficult- do you go for 2, 1 or 0? Actually, I was intrigued that UKIP chose not to endorse an alternative candidate. The obvious face saver would have been to endorse the Tory who had after all formerly stood as a UKIP candidate,but instead an open-ended "good wishes to all remaining candidates" looks like a definite non-endorsement of the Tory front runner. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 23, 2018 16:28:09 GMT
Obviously canvass returns have been poor and this is a face saver. In fact the candidate cannot pull out but the party and candidate can cease activity and not attend the count. The Bolton affair may be a bit embarrassing but it is for me so small scale and underwhelming I cannot conceive why a serious candidate wishing to serve the public would wish to pull out and let his pledges down. This is a Wight election and nothing to to with Bolton. It is a silly stunt.
We will still have to estimate the UKIP vote in the competition and that adds another difficult element.Be honest, Carlton, it's not that difficult- do you go for 2, 1 or 0? Actually, I was intrigued that UKIP chose not to endorse an alternative candidate. The obvious face saver would have been to endorse the Tory who had after all formerly stood as a UKIP candidate,but instead an open-ended "good wishes to all remaining candidates" looks like a definite non-endorsement of the Tory front runner. As low as that? And a definite non-endorsement of the Conservative (former UKIP) Candidate? It could be that they see him as a turncoat or even more likely that they hadn't even thought on an endorsement at all. Why is there all this flurry in UKIP circles? It is hardly that they need or want another contest surely? He has only just been elected. It is hardly that UKIP are known for their very politically correct speech and statements or that the girlfriend said anything other than one might hear any day in a pub or club or on the terraces. And it was private albeit foolishly on a common site. It was in the past. She is 25 and hardly anything to do with UKIP. Since when did the party get that prissy about things said. The unctuous apologies have been given. What is this all about? As it happens I don't hold with these apologies unless you have changed your mind and sincerely repent of what you see to be an earlier error. If you say it you mean it at the time. You can't apologise it away. You thought it, you said it and you typed it. It is what you felt. Why apologise? The apology is pure hypocrisy of the worst sort. You are pretending to apologise for something you meant at the time and probably still feel? It is public wallpaper. Silly modern fashion. Don't do it. Don't let the thought police get into the head. Take the flak. Show a V-sign and pass on. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,028
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Post by Khunanup on Jan 23, 2018 18:15:07 GMT
Be honest, Carlton, it's not that difficult- do you go for 2, 1 or 0? Actually, I was intrigued that UKIP chose not to endorse an alternative candidate. The obvious face saver would have been to endorse the Tory who had after all formerly stood as a UKIP candidate,but instead an open-ended "good wishes to all remaining candidates" looks like a definite non-endorsement of the Tory front runner. As low as that? And a definite non-endorsement of the Conservative (former UKIP) Candidate? It could be that they see him as a turncoat or even more likely that they hadn't even thought on an endorsement at all. Why is there all this flurry in UKIP circles? It is hardly that they need or want another contest surely? He has only just been elected. It is hardly that UKIP are known for their very politically correct speech and statements or that the girlfriend said anything other than one might hear any day in a pub or club or on the terraces. And it was private albeit foolishly on a common site. It was in the past. She is 25 and hardly anything to do with UKIP. Since when did the party get that prissy about things said. The unctuous apologies have been given. What is this all about? As it happens I don't hold with these apologies unless you have changed your mind and sincerely repent of what you see to be an earlier error. If you say it you mean it at the time. You can't apologise it away. You thought it, you said it and you typed it. It is what you felt. Why apologise? The apology is pure hypocrisy of the worst sort. You are pretending to apologise for something you meant at the time and probably still feel? It is public wallpaper. Silly modern fashion. Don't do it. Don't let the thought police get into the head. Take the flak. Show a V-sign and pass on. It appears to be because the top of UKIP is riven with bitter factionalism. As a report I saw mentioned, you have a large number of unsuccessful leadership candidates and others who think they can do the job better than Bolton so will take any opportunity to undermine him. It's become increasingly obvious that UKIP really became the Farage show and that he glued them together (while shedding certain members too because of him which is inevitable when a party becomes a personality cult) and now he's gone and appears to have pretty much lost interest it's open season. Micro-party status awaits unless something dramatic happens. With this by-election, Steve Hastings left UKIP just over a year after being elected as one of their councillors (and that was nearly three years ago). As it really is only the hard core left in UKIP now I'm sure that doesn't endear him to them thus the lack of endorsement (and they may be dislikers of the Conservatives anyway). |
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 23, 2018 21:04:51 GMT
With this by-election, Steve Hastings left UKIP just over a year after being elected as one of their councillors (and that was nearly three years ago). As it really is only the hard core left in UKIP now I'm sure that doesn't endear him to them thus the lack of endorsement (and they may be dislikers of the Conservatives anyway). yes , that was how I read it too.You might have thought that if they expected Hastings to win they would save some face by supporting him, and there would have to be a good reason not to. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 23, 2018 21:57:19 GMT
Obviously canvass returns have been poor and this is a face saver. In fact the candidate cannot pull out but the party and candidate can cease activity and not attend the count. The Bolton affair may be a bit embarrassing but it is for me so small scale and underwhelming I cannot conceive why a serious candidate wishing to serve the public would wish to pull out and let his pledges down. This is a Wight election and nothing to to with Bolton. It is a silly stunt. We will still have to estimate the UKIP vote in the competition and that adds another difficult element. That assumes that there are canvass returns. Equally plausible is that the candidate doesn't want to be the candidate, or even in UKIP, any more. |
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