cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,598 
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Post by cibwr on Oct 24, 2012 22:10:49 GMT
The Cardiff North and South West Gwent seat is a little peculiar and it a bit of a cludge but a necessary one given the more rational carve up of Cardiff and the South East Valleys - I doubt that they will be implemented though.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Oct 24, 2012 22:15:10 GMT
I have no idea if there is such a thing, but for the speed of turnover from publication of suggestions to notional results, I think that Anthony Wells should get an award for services to psephology presented to him by David Butler.
These are the various starting points:
Current House Starting Point: Con 307 Lab 258 Lib Dem 57 Others 28 (Con short by 19)
First Recommendations Starting Point: Con 299 Lab 231 Lib Dem 46 Others 24 (Con short by 2)
Revised Suggestions Starting Point: Con 303 Lab 222 Lib Dem 51 Others 24 (Con majority of 6)
Over the next few days, I'll create a list of Labour targets for the current house, first recommendations and revised suggestions and would like member's comments.
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 25, 2012 0:02:40 GMT
I have no idea if there is such a thing, but for the speed of turnover from publication of suggestions to notional results, I think that Anthony Wells should get an award for services to psephology presented to him by David Butler. These are the various starting points: Current House Starting Point: Con 307 Lab 258 Lib Dem 57 Others 28 (Con short by 19) First Recommendations Starting Point: Con 299 Lab 231 Lib Dem 46 Others 24 (Con short by 2) Revised Suggestions Starting Point: Con 303 Lab 222 Lib Dem 51 Others 24 (Con majority of 6) Over the next few days, I'll create a list of Labour targets for the current house, first recommendations and revised suggestions and would like member's comments. I'd be interested to know whether Anthony Wells is doing the job single-handedly or whether he has a team of people helping with it. I asked him actually a few months ago but there was no reply. |
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Post by Philip Davies on Oct 25, 2012 7:57:47 GMT
If Anthony Wells has already compiled notional results for each ward then it wouldn't be too difficult to tabulate consituency results.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Oct 25, 2012 18:46:02 GMT
Labour Targets Current House
Warwickshire North 0.06%
Thurrock 0.10%
Hendon 0.11%
Cardiff North 0.20%
Sherwood 0.22%
Norwich South 0.33%
Stockton South 0.33%
Broxtowe 0.37%
Lancaster and Fleetwood 0.39%
Bradford East 0.45%
Amber Valley 0.58%
Waveney 0.75%
Wolverhampton South West 0.86%
Morecambe and Lunesdale 1.00%
Carlisle 1.01%
Stroud 1.12%
Weaver Vale 1.13%
Lincoln 1.16%
Brighton Pavilion 1.21%
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport 1.31%
Dewsbury 1.41%
Warrington South 1.42%
Brent Central 1.48%
Bedford 1.50%
Brighton Kemptown 1.55%
Pudsey 1.69%
Corby 1.80%
Brentford and Isleworth 1.82%
Hove 1.87%
Enfield North 1.90%
Hastings and Rye 2.00%
Manchester Withington 2.05%
Burnley 2.17%
Ipswich 2.21%
Dundee East 2.24%
Dunbartonshire East 2.28%
Halesowen and Rowley Regis 2.30%
Nuneaton 2.32%
Gloucester 2.38%
Northampton North 2.40%
Bury North 2.49%
Kingswood 2.55%
Erewash 2.62%
Blackpool North and Cleveleys 2.65%
Chester, City of 2.76%
Arfon 2.79%
Croydon Central 2.98%
Worcester 3.04%
Keighley 3.08%
Wirral West 3.09%
Cannock Chase 3.51%
Loughborough 3.54%
Harrow East 3.54%
Warwick and Leamington 3.58%
Birmingham Yardley 3.67%
Swindon South 3.76%
Ealing Central and Acton 3.94%
Pendle 3.98%
Stevenage 4.01%
Elmet and Rothwell 4.05%
Edinburgh West 4.09%
Watford 4.11%
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South 4.23%
Vale Of Glamorgan 4.42%
Argyll and Bute 4.44%
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale 4.57%
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 4.58%
Norwich North 4.58%
Those with memories of Election 1992 will remember the importance of Norwich North to Labour in that election
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Oct 26, 2012 8:24:11 GMT
Labour Targets Initial Proposals
Birmingham Yardley 0.04%
Gower and Swansea West 0.05%
Luton North and Dunstable 0.06%
Thurrock 0.10%
Hendon 0.11%
Leeds North East 0.25%
Ilford North 0.28%
Norwich South 0.33%
Broxtowe 0.38%
Milton Keynes South 0.40%
Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle 0.47%
Willesden 0.56%
Mirfield 0.73%
Waveney 0.75%
Sherwood 0.95%
Copeland and Windermere 0.99%
Stroud 1.12%
Scunthorpe 1.20%
Caerfyrddin 1.22%
Darwen and Haslingden 1.34%
Derby West 1.35%
Cupar and St Andrews 1.65%
Chester 1.66%
Corby 1.75%
Northampton North 1.76%
Eltham 1.85%
Gloucester 1.95%
Hastings and Rye 2.00%
Chingford and Edmonton 2.01%
Stanmore 2.02%
Morecambe and Lunesdale 2.03%
Sheffield South West 2.21%
Ipswich 2.21%
Lincoln 2.27%
Mid Derbyshire 2.27%
Edinburgh West 2.40%
Dundee East and the Glens 2.62%
Blackpool North and Fleetwood 2.69%
Ealing 3.00%
Brentford and Isleworth 3.01%
Worcester 3.04%
Southampton Test 3.06%
Bradford West 3.36%
Watford 3.39%
Walsall South 3.48%
Cannock Chase 3.51%
Bury North 3.54%
Loughborough 3.54%
Birmingham Erdington 3.55%
Glyndwr and North Powys 3.58%
Swindon South 3.76%
Derby South and Swadlincote 3.82%
Hornsey and Wood Green 3.85%
Erewash 3.92%
Basildon and Thurrock East 4.19%
Brighton and Hove North 4.28%
Meriden 4.35%
Nottingham South and West Bridgford 4.42%
Erith 4.48%
Carlisle 4.53%
Bedford 4.67%
Stevenage 4.73%
South and West Pembrokeshire 4.74%
Gillingham and Rainham 4.90%
Margate and Ramsgate 4.93%
Wanstead and Woodford 4.97%
The Vale of Glamorgan 5.05%
Hexham 5.06%
Croydon East 5.19%
Clapham Common 5.29%
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 26, 2012 9:25:52 GMT
Thanks for these Harry this is very useful. One small improvement I might suggest if it could be easily done is to number the lists or at the very least to break them up into blocks of 5 or 10 to make it a bit easier to see how many seats would fall with a given swing
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Oct 26, 2012 10:52:15 GMT
Thanks for these Harry this is very useful. One small improvement I might suggest if it could be easily done is to number the lists or at the very least to break them up into blocks of 5 or 10 to make it a bit easier to see how many seats would fall with a given swing I would do, if I knew how. I have tried using the table and list functions on this forum before, but they never seem to work properly |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2012 10:57:22 GMT
Harry -- I'll PM you a table Pete created some time ago, for you to have a play around with. Maybe create a fake thread in the LibDem room to create drafts ?
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Post by stepney on Oct 26, 2012 10:59:27 GMT
Harry, where are you getting these figures from? The majorities in Thurrock and Hendon in 2010 were 0.20% and 0.23% respectively.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 26, 2012 11:01:53 GMT
The figures he is giving is the swing required
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Post by stepney on Oct 26, 2012 11:07:37 GMT
The figures he is giving is the swing required Got you, ta. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2012 15:49:38 GMT
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2012 17:10:04 GMT
Could be a probing amendment. Nothing - much - to see here, yet, Ian.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2012 17:14:48 GMT
Could be a probing amendment. Nothing - much - to see here, yet, Ian. do you think we would put one up and get Rennard to sign it who is very high up in the LD's just for a probe ? We all know it should be cancelled before anymore money is wasted if this is the best way then great |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2012 18:48:06 GMT
My understanding, and I suspect that my information comes from closer to the engine room than yours, is that the Boundary issue is far from dead in the water at the moment. Nothing is certain but there could be life in it yet. I would stop speaking to Michael Green if I was you |
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Post by erlend on Oct 30, 2012 19:10:06 GMT
My understanding, and I suspect that my information comes from closer to the engine room than yours, is that the Boundary issue is far from dead in the water at the moment. Nothing is certain but there could be life in it yet. Having an ear that hears things from the Bridge and the Engine room too I think there isn't a lot of mileage left before it conks out. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2012 19:18:48 GMT
Lord Rennard moving the motion is a clear signal really, they could have got some no name but not a party grandee
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2012 21:40:45 GMT
"@michaelsavage FOLLOWS YOU
Times political correspondent
Gosh - getting word of a Tory panic in Lords over an attempt to kick boundary changes into next parliament. Dunno why as it's dead anyhow..."
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Oct 30, 2012 22:12:12 GMT
If we assume that all Conservatives (307) are in favour of the boundary changes, they only need another 20 votes to make it happen. Northern Ireland has 18 votes, there are 6 SNP and 3 Plaid plus a Green as well (which gives you 28 to choose from).
I cannot remember if Labour have made a statement on the boundary changes, but with 253 being less than 307, the Liberal Democrats would need to actively vote NO (310) to force the smaller parties to make a decision one way or the other.
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