Local By -elections, November 30th, 2017

[iain]

Excellent night for us

[Sharon]

Dec 1, 2017 0:08:05 GMT Merseymike said:

Nov 30, 2017 23:54:36 GMT Khunanup said:

My comments were aimed squarely at Mike who has expressed almost Stalin levels of cynicism (I'm not comparing his politics to Stalin, just the attitude) in terms of political expediencies on here recently.

I've said on here many times before that our long hard path back is built on the back of rebuilding our local government base so it's a question of priorities, values and strategy. That's why these things matter to us but appear to be semi-relevant to you. I happen to think that you're storing up enormous problems for the future by prioritising what you are but that's your look out.

Local government has hardly any power, can't raise its own money, and is largely told what it has to provide as core responsibilities.

Back in the days of the GLC and the new urban left, it could have been argued that local government was a key way of bringing forth a more socialist agenda and radical change - but thats just not the case any more. Many people now decide not to be councillors because they just can't see what real change they could make.

It may be again in the future, but I certainly wouldn't restore power to councils given the way they are currently organised. They just aren't capable of taking on that sort of responsibility at the moment. Its not their fault, but sure, I am cynical about local councils because I've seen the sort of thing that people become excited about locally, and its really very small beer - while the Government continues to cut funding year after year.

I'd like much more policy-focused elected bodies, where councillors actually make decisions and have proper control of their officers (at the moment they run rings around them), and I'd prefer the casework side of things to be dealt with by a greatly strengthened, properly local advice and ombudsman service, with resources, who could certainly have the power to direct councils to carry out their responsibilities. Councillors could have a role in its governance. In my view councillors are absolutely useless at doing casework, on the whole, and often use it for political ends to get re-elected. Given they have no training in such matters its hardly surprising.

"can't raise its own money" - codswallop - in Southampton, the Labour-run Council has had a good deal of success in attracting businesses into the city, which increases our income from the 49% of the business rates we keep.

"local government was a key way of bringing forth a more socialist agenda and radical change - but that's just not the case any more." Pfft!  Unlike the rest of Hampshire, we have kept all our Sure Start Centres open - making a real difference for our youngsters.

"In my view councillors are absolutely useless at doing casework,"  What utter rubbish.  I do my casework, and I'm bloody good at getting results for my constituents.

[Merseymike]

Yet would anyone here think that the LibDems would win any of the four parliamentary seats at the next general election? We aren't competitive in any of them, but how much chance is there of the Tories losing, say, Gosport, or Maidstone and the Weald, both of which they have been challengers in before but have never won? Or the LibDems winning back Toridge and West Devon, which they did hold recently, but are currently miles behind at national level?

[iain]

Dec 1, 2017 0:18:18 GMT Merseymike said:

Yet would anyone here think that the LibDems would win any of the four parliamentary seats at the next general election? We aren't competitive in any of them, but how much chance is there of the Tories losing, say, Gosport, or Maidstone and the Weald, both of which they have been challengers in before but have never won? Or the LibDems winning back Toridge and West Devon, which they did hold recently, but are currently miles behind at national level?

So what? We have to start somewhere.

[mboy]

Dec 1, 2017 0:13:09 GMT Robert Waller said:

What an extraordinary night for the Lib Dems.
Absolute majorities in all four contests.
I don't think anyone would have predicted that.

Now is when we really miss Mark Senior - he would have predicted it! RIP

[Sibboleth]

Local government in Britain has always operated within legislative and financial frameworks established by the central State. And that central State has always viewed it as a means of implementing policy - its policy! - at a local level. There was a period when it was considerably more independent and powerful than today - though peak independence and peak power never aligned actually; local government was at its most powerful between 1944/7-1974 yet was more independent in the interwar period etc - but it was never free to act as it wished. Local elections o/c have always been a bit odd and local by-elections especially; anyone who thinks they were ever at all stable is an idiot or ignorant or both.

[liverpoolliberal]

Dec 1, 2017 0:18:18 GMT Merseymike said:

Yet would anyone here think that the LibDems would win any of the four parliamentary seats at the next general election? We aren't competitive in any of them, but how much chance is there of the Tories losing, say, Gosport, or Maidstone and the Weald, both of which they have been challengers in before but have never won? Or the LibDems winning back Toridge and West Devon, which they did hold recently, but are currently miles behind at national level?

What do you reckon had more effect on the city, David Alton as an MP or the Lib Dem ran Liverpool council? Because I know the answer to that and if you try to say the opposite you're clearly blinded by ideology and beyond any of our help... 

[Merseymike]

Dec 1, 2017 0:17:32 GMT Sharon said:

Dec 1, 2017 0:08:05 GMT Merseymike said:

Local government has hardly any power, can't raise its own money, and is largely told what it has to provide as core responsibilities.

Back in the days of the GLC and the new urban left, it could have been argued that local government was a key way of bringing forth a more socialist agenda and radical change - but thats just not the case any more. Many people now decide not to be councillors because they just can't see what real change they could make.

It may be again in the future, but I certainly wouldn't restore power to councils given the way they are currently organised. They just aren't capable of taking on that sort of responsibility at the moment. Its not their fault, but sure, I am cynical about local councils because I've seen the sort of thing that people become excited about locally, and its really very small beer - while the Government continues to cut funding year after year.

I'd like much more policy-focused elected bodies, where councillors actually make decisions and have proper control of their officers (at the moment they run rings around them), and I'd prefer the casework side of things to be dealt with by a greatly strengthened, properly local advice and ombudsman service, with resources, who could certainly have the power to direct councils to carry out their responsibilities. Councillors could have a role in its governance. In my view councillors are absolutely useless at doing casework, on the whole, and often use it for political ends to get re-elected. Given they have no training in such matters its hardly surprising.

"can't raise its own money" - codswallop - in Southampton, the Labour-run Council has had a good deal of success in attracting businesses into the city, which increases our income from the 49% of the business rates we keep.

"local government was a key way of bringing forth a more socialist agenda and radical change - but that's just not the case any more." Pfft!  Unlike the rest of Hampshire, we have kept all our Sure Start Centres open - making a real difference for our youngsters.

"In my view councillors are absolutely useless at doing casework,"  What utter rubbish.  I do my casework, and I'm bloody good at getting results for my constituents.

You sum up exactly why so many Labour councillors won't face up to their essential impotence and loss of power.
Attracting businesses - fine, but what thet will raise is tiny in terms of money needed to provide services, which you rely on what is given to you from the centre to provide
Sure Start centres - good, but again, they weren't able to make the impact they should have done because of the shift away from fulfilling their original aim. Good to have them, sure, transformative - sorry, but no.
And having been an advice worker, generally councillors are not good at doing advice work in my view, and it isn't helped by the fact that there is very little they can really do because the council doesn't provide most services any more. Education - academies , free schools or locally managed via governors. Housing - the newly private-sector placed social landlords. Social services and social care - much taken over by outsourcing and grossly under-resourced.

Unless you grasp that without proper power and resources, you can only make the most marginal of changes, you'll never know what you need to be asking for or what local government can or should do.

[Merseymike]

Dec 1, 2017 0:21:37 GMT iain said:

Dec 1, 2017 0:18:18 GMT Merseymike said:

Yet would anyone here think that the LibDems would win any of the four parliamentary seats at the next general election? We aren't competitive in any of them, but how much chance is there of the Tories losing, say, Gosport, or Maidstone and the Weald, both of which they have been challengers in before but have never won? Or the LibDems winning back Toridge and West Devon, which they did hold recently, but are currently miles behind at national level?

So what? We have to start somewhere.

But how many times have I heard Liberals and LibDems say that?
I think you are caught between two stools. You are really good at winning local council seats by an essentially local-populist apolitical approach, which is undoubtedly popular . I am utterly cynical about it for the reasons I have often expressed. But I do appreciate it can work locally.
However, I think its also the reason that you don't win national elections, because by such localist politics, you almost inevitably fail to have any sort of convincing national profile particularly when localism means that sometimes LibDems can say the opposite thing even from one end of a borough to another, yet alone across the whole country.

[Zardoz]

Dec 1, 2017 0:13:09 GMT andrew111 said:

Dec 1, 2017 0:07:34 GMT maxque said:

Torrington

LD 701
Ind 180
Con 159
Grn 76
UKIP 49

Very good night for the Lib Dems, anyway. Extraordinary swings... Torrington is extremely poor for the Greens as well, after some good recent results. I expected them to win that one

The Lib Dem candidate in Torrington is a Facebook friend of mine. Too far for me to help her, of course, but judging from her posts she was a popular local candidate who gave it everything. A very well deserved result for an excellent and highly effective candidate!

[Merseymike]

Dec 1, 2017 0:26:01 GMT liverpoolliberal said:

Dec 1, 2017 0:18:18 GMT Merseymike said:

Yet would anyone here think that the LibDems would win any of the four parliamentary seats at the next general election? We aren't competitive in any of them, but how much chance is there of the Tories losing, say, Gosport, or Maidstone and the Weald, both of which they have been challengers in before but have never won? Or the LibDems winning back Toridge and West Devon, which they did hold recently, but are currently miles behind at national level?

What do you reckon had more effect on the city, David Alton as an MP or the Lib Dem ran Liverpool council? Because I know the answer to that and if you try to say the opposite you're clearly blinded by ideology and beyond any of our help... 

Neither. The LibDem run Liverpool council were the epitomy of application of Blairite ideas and it was largely the Labour government that made the changes. Liverpool's right-wing Labour successor council didn't change all that much - there was far more continuity. See Sibboleth 's post above.

[Adrian]

#notthepartyofbrexit

[middleenglander]

Gosport, Bridgemary North - Liberal Democrat gain from Labour

Party	2017 votes	2017 share	since 2016	since 2014	since 2012	since 2010
Liberal Democrat	644	58.0%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Labour	255	23.0%	-49.0%	-48.5%	-39.9%	-24.4%
Conservative	212	19.1%	-8.9%	-9.5%	-18.0%	-15.6%
Independent						-18.0%
Total votes	1,111		100%	96%	99%	52%

Swing not applicable

Council now 21 Conservative, 10 Liberal Democrat, 3 Labour

Maidstone, Maidstone North - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative

Party	2017 votes	2017 share	since 2016	since 2015	since 2014 "top"	since 2014 "average"	since 2012
Liberal Democrat	719	51.4%	+8.4%	+20.0%	+9.4%	+13.4%	-3.2%
Conservative	364	26.0%	+2.1%	-6.0%	+9.2%	+8.5%	+3.1%
Labour	270	19.3%	+6.1%	+8.0%	+10.2%	+9.2%	+6.9%
Green	47	3.4%	-0.1%	-2.1%	-5.4%	-6.4%	from nowhere
UKIP			-16.6%	-19.9%	-23.4%	-24.7%	-10.1%
Total votes	1,400		71%	36%	62%	69%	84%

Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ 3¼% since 2016, 13% since 2015, ~ 0% / 2½ since 2014 but Liberal Democrat to Conservative ~ 3¼% since 2012

Council now 23 Liberal Democrat, 22 Conservative, 4 UKIP, 4 Independent, 2 Labour

Tandridge, Westway - Liberal Democrat hold

Party	2017 votes	2017 share	since 2016	since 2014	since 2012	since 2010
Liberal Democrat	483	53.5%	+17.5%	+27.6%	-1.6%	+11.3%
Conservative	239	26.5%	-2.5%	-8.6%	+3.8%	-17.3%
Labour	118	13.1%	-2.8%	-2.1%	-0.3%	+4.7%
UKIP	62	6.9%	-12.2%	-16.9%	-1.9%	+1.3%
Total votes	902		78%	88%	100%	48%

Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 10% since 2016, 18% since 2014 and 14¼% since 2010 but Liberal Democrat to Conservative 2¾% since 2012

Council now 30 Conservative, 6 Liberal Democrat, 4 Localist, 2 Independent

Torridge, Torrington - Liberal Democrat gain from UKIP

Party	2017 votes	2017 share	since 2015 "top"	since 2015 "average"	since 2013 B	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"
Liberal Democrat	701	60.2%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	+37.0%	+42.4%
Independent	180	15.5%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Conservative	159	13.6%	-6.2%	-6.8%	+2.9%	-15.6%	-20.2%
Green	76	6.5%	-16.2%	-14.0%	-28.7%	from nowhere	from nowhere
UKIP	49	4.2%	-17.0%	-16.0%	-17.7%	-3.3%	Row 6 column 8
Independent Councillor			-23.8%	-25.5%		-28.7%	-26.6%
Labour			-12.5%	-13.3%		-11.3%	-13.1%
Previous Independent 1					-19.3%
Previous Independent 2					-12.8%
Total votes	1,165		29%	31%	141%	42%	49%

Swing not meaningful

Council now 18 Conservative, 7 Independent, 4 UKIP, 3 Liberal Democrat, 2 Green, 1 Labour, 1 Vacant

[Merseymike]

Dec 1, 2017 0:35:54 GMT Adrian said:

#notthepartyofbrexit

Nah.
I would be amazed if even one voter in Bridgemary switched to the LibDems because they don't agree with Brexit! Gosport was a 64% Leave vote, and I'd be surprised if it wasn't higher in that ward.

[spqr]

Dec 1, 2017 0:43:43 GMT Merseymike said:

Dec 1, 2017 0:35:54 GMT Adrian said:

#notthepartyofbrexit

Nah.
I would be amazed if even one voter in Bridgemary switched to the LibDems because they don't agree with Brexit! Gosport was a 64% Leave vote, and I'd be surprised if it wasn't higher in that ward.

It wouldn't entirely surprise me if some Lib Dem staffers came to the same conclusion as Adrian, though. "We are winning because people are learning to love Europe", etc, etc.

[Merseymike]

Dec 1, 2017 0:48:59 GMT spqr said:

Dec 1, 2017 0:43:43 GMT Merseymike said:

Nah.
I would be amazed if even one voter in Bridgemary switched to the LibDems because they don't agree with Brexit! Gosport was a 64% Leave vote, and I'd be surprised if it wasn't higher in that ward.

It wouldn't entirely surprise me if some Lib Dem staffers came to the same conclusion as Adrian, though. "We are winning because people are learning to love Europe", etc, etc.

Surely they can't be that naive? There have been a small number of people who now regret voting leave, but at the same time, others are very much hardened in their motivation to do so, and there is still a feeling that now we have made the decision, we need to get on with it....

And even if there is a shift away from wanting to leave should it become obvious that there will be negative economic impact, I don't think we have ever 'loved the EU', and thats why Leave won. We've never really felt in the centre of the European project - its something quite hard to put one's finger on, but its there as a mentality

[Khunanup]

The response to these results are as ever beautifully illuminating.

Any sign of jigger by the way?

[spqr]

Dec 1, 2017 0:57:09 GMT Merseymike said:

Dec 1, 2017 0:48:59 GMT spqr said:

It wouldn't entirely surprise me if some Lib Dem staffers came to the same conclusion as Adrian, though. "We are winning because people are learning to love Europe", etc, etc.

Surely they can't be that naive? There have been a small number of people who now regret voting leave, but at the same time, others are very much hardened in their motivation to do so, and there is still a feeling that now we have made the decision, we need to get on with it....

And even if there is a shift away from wanting to leave should it become obvious that there will be negative economic impact, I don't think we have ever 'loved the EU', and thats why Leave won. We've never really felt in the centre of the European project - its something quite hard to put one's finger on, but its there as a mentality

I'm sure a few could let it go to their heads - there are always some people (from all walks of political life) who view every development as evidence of what they thought all along. Landslide in Gosport? Must be people 'coming to their senses' and agreeing with what we know to be right...

But yeah, in truth it'll only be a tiny minority who think like this; it's possible some of them will turn up on Twitter, but hopefully not inside Lib Dem HQ. I was just having a cheap dig.*

* And that, to be fair, is probably a bit churlish at that this moment in time. So well done to the Lib Dems on their victories. 

[nigelashton]

Dec 1, 2017 0:40:59 GMT middleenglander said:

Gosport, Bridgemary North - Liberal Democrat gain from Labour
Maidstone, Maidstone North - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Tandridge, Westway - Liberal Democrat hold
Torridge, Torrington - Liberal Democrat gain from UKIP

Nicely ecumenical!

[Deleted]

Nov 30, 2017 23:39:06 GMT Khunanup said:

Nov 30, 2017 23:29:40 GMT Merseymike said:

Because general elections matter and while I don't necessarily welcome this, councils have very few powers and change of party only alters things at the margins. At general elections people elect governments and vote on national issues, not on getting the cracks in the pavements sorted. Taking the politics out of politics can work at local level, but ultimately it hardly affects national politics and who forms the government at all.

I'm afraid this says more about you than about local politics Mike. You have an utterly cynical view of politics and your dismissal of local politics is dismal though utterly typical of the wide eyed idealism of the hard left. Politics is about the micro as well as the macro, if you lose the former the latter is nothing but a sham.

Couldn't disagree more with that statement. Mike however is absolutely correct in pointing out that local councils as presently empowered are not significant. Perhaps once the power to organise their own finances according to their needs, to build council housing, provide public education at local level  for local children (and not the present lottery) and other public utilities is returned to them things will change. But that ain't gonna happen, sadly. The public's enthusiasm for local elections where turnout is rarely over a third and frequently much lower is a good indication (or should be) of how much the voters value local government at the present time.