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Post by justin124 on Nov 17, 2017 12:58:58 GMT
A clear disparity re-the two Waveney results. Would Labour having an Asian candidate in St Margaret's have depressed its vote?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,979
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 17, 2017 13:01:21 GMT
A clear disparity re-the two Waveney results. Would Labour having an Asian candidate in St Margaret's have depressed its vote? You could actually say the same about their close shave in Darlington. |
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Post by justin124 on Nov 17, 2017 13:04:43 GMT
The Waveney constituency has swung sharply to the Tories since 2010. Maybe we are seeing an East coast effect here .
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sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979 
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Post by sirbenjamin on Nov 17, 2017 13:54:04 GMT
St Margaret's (Waveney) result: CON: 41.7% (+11.8) LAB: 35.1% (-1.3) UKIP: 10.2% (-15.8) LDEM: 7.5% (+7.5) GRN: 5.6% (-2.2) Conservative GAIN from Labour. Does this mean Pleasurewood Hills is now Tory? |
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 17, 2017 13:58:43 GMT
The Waveney constituency has swung sharply to the Tories since 2010. Maybe we are seeing an East coast effect here . And it is worth looking at the county council results in Lowestoft in May 2017 as well as the Waveney general election swings. I believe the Conservatives won (and gained) both the county council divisions covering these two wards. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 17, 2017 13:59:44 GMT
General election results are a bit distorted as Bob Blizzard obviously had a significant personal vote, which disappeared when he was no longer the candidate in 2017.
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Post by justin124 on Nov 17, 2017 14:07:42 GMT
General election results are a bit distorted as Bob Blizzard obviously had a significant personal vote, which disappeared when he was no longer the candidate in 2017. On the other hand Bob Blizzard failed to win back the seat in 2015 - and the seat now begins to look as safe for the Tories as in the Jim Prior era. Great Yarmouth has also moved away from Labour which leads me to wonder whether we are seeing a Brexit effect on the East Coast in Norfolk/Suffolk similar to what is very apparent in Southern Essex - and further North in Hartlepool and Grimsby. |
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Post by andrewp on Nov 17, 2017 15:05:35 GMT
A clear disparity re-the two Waveney results. Would Labour having an Asian candidate in St Margaret's have depressed its vote? You could actually say the same about their close shave in Darlington. I was going to say the same about Darlington but couldn’t find a way of tactfully putting it. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 17, 2017 17:18:58 GMT
You could actually say the same about their close shave in Darlington. I was going to say the same about Darlington but couldn’t find a way of tactfully putting it. No need to be tactful. "Foreign" names are often a drag on a candidate, unless already familiar in which case they can actually be a plus by being readily identifiable. |
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Post by greenchristian on Nov 17, 2017 17:35:31 GMT
So that 46 votes isn;t such a terrible result given the low total vote (beating established Lib Dems and Greens combined) and it's a pretty poor result for Labour in a safe ward - almost lost to the Tories A bit misleading to describe either Lib Dems or Greens as "established" in that local context? Paper candidates where there is no tradition of standing are only ever going to get a handful of votes. The whole thing is bit of a travesty of an election and nobody comes out of it with much credit. Whilst this is usually the case, it is not always true. The first exception that comes to mind is Oswestry South division in Shropshire in 2009, where a Green paper candidate arranged at the last minute with no real history of standing in the town got 18.8% and second place out of four. |
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Post by froome on Nov 17, 2017 18:48:20 GMT
A bit misleading to describe either Lib Dems or Greens as "established" in that local context? Paper candidates where there is no tradition of standing are only ever going to get a handful of votes. The whole thing is bit of a travesty of an election and nobody comes out of it with much credit. Whilst this is usually the case, it is not always true. The first exception that comes to mind is Oswestry South division in Shropshire in 2009, where a Green paper candidate arranged at the last minute with no real history of standing in the town got 18.8% and second place out of four. Paper candidates, of all parties, have been elected at various times, and with sudden surges in support becoming more commonplace in UK politics, this will only increase the times this happens. I sometimes wonder how many councillors are sitting there, thinking to themselves "how on earth did I get myself into this position." |
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Post by lancyiain on Nov 17, 2017 20:52:28 GMT
General election results are a bit distorted as Bob Blizzard obviously had a significant personal vote, which disappeared when he was no longer the candidate in 2017. On the other hand Bob Blizzard failed to win back the seat in 2015 - and the seat now begins to look as safe for the Tories as in the Jim Prior era. Great Yarmouth has also moved away from Labour which leads me to wonder whether we are seeing a Brexit effect on the East Coast in Norfolk/Suffolk similar to what is very apparent in Southern Essex - and further North in Hartlepool and Grimsby. Lowestoft (which is a big part of Waveney) was very much pro-Brexit, largely I think due to the collapse of its fishing industry. Brexit moving people towards the Tories is definitely plausible. |
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 18, 2017 9:58:14 GMT
Whilst this is usually the case, it is not always true. The first exception that comes to mind is Oswestry South division in Shropshire in 2009, where a Green paper candidate arranged at the last minute with no real history of standing in the town got 18.8% and second place out of four. Paper candidates, of all parties, have been elected at various times, and with sudden surges in support becoming more commonplace in UK politics, this will only increase the times this happens. I sometimes wonder how many councillors are sitting there, thinking to themselves "how on earth did I get myself into this position." Of course I accept those points and can think of examples myself where this has happened, but hardly likely in the case of the Darlington wards under consideration here. It looks as though the strategy of the Darlington Lib Dems was to make a bit of an effort in Mowden (result 111 votes) and content themselves to put a name on the ballot paper in Red Hall (result 11 votes) At least they have avoided the ultimate humiliation of getting fewer votes in the ballot box than there were on the nomination paper- and I can think of a Tory in one election to whom that happened. |
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 18, 2017 10:22:33 GMT
A clear disparity re-the two Waveney results. Would Labour having an Asian candidate in St Margaret's have depressed its vote? You could actually say the same about their close shave in Darlington. It could well be that there was a bit of reluctance among some WWC Labour voters in both St Margarets, Waveney and Red Hall, Darlington to vote for Labour candidates with Asian names. In the Red Hall case a female Asian teenager, so the reluctance could have been sexist, ageist and racist! On ultra- low turnouts even a little bit of reluctance in the core vote becomes quite significant. A pity, as I do applaud Labour efforts to widen the pool of council candidates, which ultimately is a good thing. |
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 18, 2017 18:26:12 GMT
Chiltern, Penn & Coleshill - Conservative hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | 2015 result | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 697 | 80.6% | 2 unopposed | +5.3% | +6.4% | Liberal Democrat | 168 | 19.4% |
| -5.3% | -6.4% | Total votes | 865 |
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| 44% | 46% |
Swing Liberal Democrat to Conservative ~ 5¼% / 6½% since 2011 Council now 37 Conservative, 2 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent Darlington, Mowden - Conservative hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2014 B | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 652 | 60.7% | +14.4% | +13.2% | +20.0% | -1.4% | -3.6% | Labour | 285 | 26.5% | -5.0% | -2.5% | -12.1% | -11.4% | -9.2% | Liberal Democrat | 111 | 10.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | +4.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green | 26 | 2.4% | -4.9% | -5.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| -14.7% | -15.7% | -14.8% |
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| Total votes | 1,074 |
| 42% | 45% | 68% | 65% | 68% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~ 9¾% / 7¾% since 2015, ~ 16% since 2014 by-election and 5% / 2¾% since 2011 Council now 29 Labour, 16 Conservative, 3 Liberal Democrat, 2 Independent Darlington, Redhall & Lingfield - Labour hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Labour | 249 | 44.8% | -1.9% | -1.6% | Conservative | 230 | 41.4% | +12.4% | +13.0% | Independent | 46 | 8.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green | 20 | 3.6% | -8.9% | -9.3% | Liberal Democrat | 11 | 2.0% | -9.9% | -10.3% | Total votes | 556 |
| 31% | 32% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~ 7¼% since 2015 Council now 29 Labour, 16 Conservative, 3 Liberal Democrat, 2 Independent Eden, Penrith North - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 422 | 45.2% | +2.3% | +3.5% | +9.0% | +12.9% | Conservative | 291 | 31.2% | -0.8% | -1.1% | +4.6% | +3.0% | Labour | 155 | 16.6% | -8.5% | -9.4% | +2.5% | +1.7% | Green | 65 | 7.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent |
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| -23.1% | -24.5% | Total votes | 933 |
| 39% | 40% | 43% | 46% |
Swing, if particularly meaningful, Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ 1½% / 2¼% since 2015 and 2½% / 5% since 2011 Council now 20 Conservative, 10 Independent, 7 Liberal Democrat, 1 Labour Fylde, Staining & Weeton - Conservative hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 401 | 73.0% | +8.4% | +11.3% | +27.4% | +29.8% | Labour | 111 | 20.2% | -15.1% | -18.0% | +1.2% | +0.4% | Liberal Democrat | 37 | 6.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent |
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| -27.8% | -29.1% | Green |
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| -7.5% | -7.9% | Total votes | 549 |
| 37% | 39% | 43% | 45% |
Swing Labour to Conservative 11¾% / 14¾% since 2015 and, if meaningful, ~ 13% / 14¾% since 2011 Council now 32 Conservative, 14 Independent, 2 Liberal Democrat, 2 Ratepayer, 1 Labour
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 18, 2017 19:59:36 GMT
Hartlepool, Victoria - Labour hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 "top" | since 2012 "average" | Labour | 479 | 53.1% | +1.9% | +10.7% | +2.9% | +6.4% | +5.0% | UKIP | 325 | 36.0% | +6.4% | +12.7% | from nowhere | +25.7% | +25.3% | Conservative | 98 | 10.9% | -1.0% | -0.7% | +0.9% | +1.8% | +2.5% | Green |
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| -7.3% | -7.2% |
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| Putting Hartlepool First |
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| -15.5% | -35.5% | -22.6% | -21.5% | Liberal Democrat |
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| -4.3% | -6.0% | -5.6% | Independent |
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| -5.4% | -5.6% | Total votes | 902 |
| 63% | 30% | 62% | 56% | 58% |
Swing Labour to UKIP 2¼% since 2016 and 1% since 2015 otherwise not meaningful Council now 19 Labour, 6 UKIP, 3 Conservative, 3 Putting Hartlepool First, 2 Independent South Holland, Whaplode & Holbeach St Johns - Conservative hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 541 | 78.0% | +21.2% | +21.6% | +15.3% | +17.1% | Labour | 153 | 22.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| -43.3% | -43.6% |
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| -37.4% | -39.2% | Total votes | 694 |
| 31% | 31% | 51% | 54% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 28 Conservative, 7 Independent, 2 UKIP Waveney, Kirkley - Labour hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Labour | 374 | 47.8% | +12.2% | +12.6% | +11.4% | +11.5% | Conservative | 217 | 27.7% | +7.2% | +10.0% | +12.2% | +13.3% | Liberal Democrat | 84 | 10.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -12.3% | -12.0% | UKIP | 78 | 10.0% | -9.7% | -11.2% | -1.6% | -2.2% | Green | 30 | 3.8% | -5.1% | -5.8% | -9.8% | -10.6% | Independent |
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| -15.2% | -16.3% |
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| Total votes | 783 |
| 22% | 23% | 36% | 38% |
Swing Conservative to Labour 2½% / 1¼% since 2015 but small (½% / 1%) Labour to Conservative, if meaningful, since 2011 Council now 28 Conservative, 16 Labour, 3 Independent, 1 Green Waveney, St Margaret's - Conservative gain from Labour
| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Conservative | 487 | 41.7% | +11.8% | +13.4% | +10.6% | +13.3% | Labour | 410 | 35.1% | -1.3% | -1.0% | -3.0% | -4.3% | UKIP | 119 | 10.1% | -15.8% | -17.9% | -3.4% | -4.0% | Liberal Democrat | 88 | 7.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | +0.0% | -0.4% | Green | 65 | 5.6% | -2.2% | -2.0% | -4.2% | -4.6% | Total votes | 1,169 |
| 25% | 27% | 42% | 44% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~ 6½% / 7¼% since 2015 and ~ 6¾% / 8¾% since 2011 Council now 28 Conservative, 16 Labour, 3 Independent, 1 Green West Lindsey, Sudbrooke - Conservative hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 | since 2011 | since 2007 | Conservative | 391 | 69.6% | +0.6% | -5.3% | -9.9% | Labour | 171 | 30.4% | +10.5% | +5.3% | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat |
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| 35% | 49% | 57% |
Swing Conservative to Labour ~ 5% sine 2015 and 5¼% since 2011 Council now 24 Conservative, 7 Liberal Democrat, 3 Labour, I Independent, 1 Lincolnshire Independent
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,140
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Post by Foggy on Nov 19, 2017 2:41:11 GMT
Did the St Margaret's by-election actually take place in Surrey??
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 19, 2017 9:06:09 GMT
Did the St Margaret's by-election actually take place in Surrey?? Thanks now corrected. |
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,126
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Post by ColinJ on Nov 19, 2017 15:16:26 GMT
Well, a decidedly sketchy week for the Labour Party. In fact, the last few weeks suggest there is a reversion to the poor local results that we saw immediately before the General Election. The days of the post-GE 'honeymoon', with huge pro-Labour swings and surprising gains, seem to be over.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2017 15:28:14 GMT
I wouldn't go that far. Most of Labour's post GE gains were in seaside seats like Worthing, Western-Super-Mare, Fleetwood & Lancaster, etc. The fact Labour lost a seat in the only leave constitency in the country where labours vote fell in june is not exactly demise.
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