Notional Constituency Calculations

[londonseal80]

New thread for calculating notional election results in new, old or fantasy constituency boundaries.

[Pete Whitehead]

Oct 18, 2017 15:49:44 GMT londonseal80 said:

Oct 18, 2017 13:26:06 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

No

Yes - my own method

I have some interesting SW London scenarios I would love to Calculate, however this would be better suited to another thread

Merton and Morden BC - 1974 onwards
Wimbledon BC (Wimbledon MB) 1974 onwards
Mitcham BC - 1974 onwards
Mitcham BC (just Mitcham MB) -1945 to present.
Epsom BC (just Epsom and Ewell MB) - 1945
Carshalton CC (just Carshalton UD) - 1945

This might take a while, but to start things off:

Merton & Morden

Feb 1974

Con 17600 44.3%
Lab  13577 34.2%
Lib     8307 20.9%
Oth      261  0.7%

Oct 1974

Con 15561 43.7%
Lab  14043 39.4%
Lib     5851 16.4%
Oth      142  0.4%

1979

Con 19132 52.1%
Lab  12541 34.2%
Lib     4497 12.2%
Oth      549  1.5%


Mitcham

Feb 1974

Con 23895 40.5%
Lab 22135 37.5%
Lib  12676 21.5%
Oth     349  0.6%

Oct 1974

Lab  22592 42.2%
Con 21416 40.0%
Lib     9189 17.2%
Oth      313  0.6%

1979

Con 26487 47.8%
Lab 21210 38.3%
Lib    6707  12.1%
Oth   1020  1.8%


Wimbledon

Feb 1974

Con 14870 48.2%
Lib     8285 26.9%
Lab    7546 24.5%
Oth      137  0.4%

Oct 1974

Con 13231 48.1%
Lab    7851 28.5%
Lib     6443 23.4%

1979

Con 15430 54.6%
Lab    8132 28.8%
Lib     4324 15.3%
Oth      349  1.2%

[jamie]

Redcar and East Cleveland would be fun. Electoral Caluclus has the seat as 47.2% Labour and 44.6% Conservative along with 6.1% LD (overwhelmingly in Redcar area). I think they've been too generous in allocating local Lib Dem votes to the Conservatives in Eston area so I suspect they are underestimating the GE vote for the Conservatives in Redcar. Combined with the Conservatives squeezing the final LD votes in Redcar, I would have expected this seat to have very marginally gone Conservative in June if it had existed. A Conservative MP for Redcar would be... interesting 😁

[swanarcadian]

I'll post this again if it is of any use in this regard or if you haven't seen them before: the 1970 notionals which were compiled for the BBC's election programme in Feb 74 as the basis for the swing calculations that were displayed on screen at the time:

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dX47DuTxmFg6SXaizeo3TQwvlEEOKPdCWQCTABWyN40/edit#gid=0

[Pete Whitehead]

Merton & Morden

1983

Con   16795 48.1%
SDP/L  9274 26.5%
Lab      8339 23.9%
Oth        538  1.5%


1987

Con   18008 49.8%
Lab    10176 28.2%
SDP/L  7942 22.0%



1992

Con 19099 50.2%
Lab  12362 32.5%
LD      5872 15.4%
Oth      723  1.9%



Mitcham

1983

Con  25396 48.0%
SDP  14820 28.0%
Lab  12020 22.7%
Oth      708   1.3%


1987

Con  28668 52.3%
Lab   14653 26.7%
SDP  11159 20.3%
Oth       368  0.7%


1992

Con  28329 49.5%
Lab  18136 31.7%
LD      9969 17.4%
Oth      842   1.5%



Wimbledon

1983

Con 13832 52.5%
Lib     7476 28.4%
Lab    4592 17.4%
Oth      464  1.8%


1987

Con 14037  51.3%
Lib     7896  28.8%
Lab    5438  19.9%



1992

Con 15286 54.1%
Lib     6194 21.9%
Lab    6099 21.6%

[londonseal80]

Oct 18, 2017 18:57:14 GMT swanarcadian said:

I'll post this again if it is of any use in this regard or if you haven't seen them before: the 1970 notionals which were compiled for the BBC's election programme in Feb 74 as the basis for the swing calculations that were displayed on screen at the time:

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dX47DuTxmFg6SXaizeo3TQwvlEEOKPdCWQCTABWyN40/edit#gid=0

I did see those before, Sutton and Cheam was a safer Tory seat back then than the other SW London seats. It has pretty much reverted to type now.

In fact only Chelsea, Chipping Barnet and Croydon South were the only safer ones in London on that notional list.

[Pete Whitehead]

Merton & Morden

1997

Lab  17855  49.6%
Con 11959  33.2%
LD     4666   13.0%
Ref      680    1.9%
Oth     826    2.3%


2001

Lab  14908  51.2%
Con    9295  31.9%
LD      3494  12.0%
Oth    1435    4.9%


2005

Lab  13224  43.0%
Con 10921  35.5%
LD      5178  16.8%
Oth    1449    4.7%


Mitcham

1997

Lab  23147  43.2%
Con 17525  32.7%
LD   10603  19.8%
Ref    1077    2.0%
Oth   1247    2.3%


2001

Lab  18537  42.6%
Con 12738  29.2%
LD   10358  23.8%
Oth   1919    4.4%


2005

Lab  18644  40.0%
Con  14354 30.8%
LD    11454  24.5%
Oth    2215    4.7%


Wimbledon

1997

Lab  11134  40.6%
Con 10625  38.7%
LD     4533  16.5%
Ref      573    2.1%
Oth     555    2.0%


2001

Lab 10455  44.1%
Con  9107  38.4%
LD    3069  12.9%
Oth  1080    4.6%


2005

Con 10711 43.1%
Lab   8454  34.0%
LD     4535 18.2%
Oth   1164   4.7%

[Pete Whitehead]

Merton & Morden

2010

Con 12963  40.0%
Lab  11175  34.5%
LD      6465  19.9%
UKIP    726    2.2%
BNP     626    1.9%
Grn      316    1.0%
oth      150     0.5%



2015


Con  13216  39.0%
Lab   13169  38.9%
UKIP   3294    9.7%
LD       2923    8.6%
Grn     1205   3.6%
oth         67    0.2%


2017


Lab  17634  49.1%
Con 13322  37.1%
LD      3387   9.4%
UKIP    793   2.2%
Grn      662   1.8%
oth         98   0.3%


Mitcham

2010

Lab  20447  39.6%
Con 14669  28.4%
LD    13547  26.2%
BNP   1216   2.4%
UKIP  1184   2.3%
Grn      478   0.9%
oth      137   0.3%


2015


Lab  23797  44.9%
Con 13556  25.6%
LD      8428  15.9%
UKIP  5326  10.0%
Grn    1659    3.1%
oth      262     0.5%


2017



Lab  28454  50.4%
Con 15996  28.3%
LD   10436  18.5%
Grn     687    1.2%
UKIP   541    1.0%
oth     395    0.7%



Wimbledon

2010

Con 14886  52.7%
LD     7004  24.8%
Lab   5356  19.0%
UKIP   497    1.8%
Grn     362    1.3%
oth     141    0.5%



2015



Con  16253  56.9%
Lab     6238  21.8%
LD       3645  12.8%
UKIP   1266   4.4%
Grn     1176   4.1%



2017


Con 15470  50.9%
Lab    9360  30.8%
LD      4565  15.0%
Grn      743    2.4%
UKIP    273    0.9%

[martinwhelton]

Intrestiing to read predicted notional for both Mitcham along with Merton and Morden. Knowing the boundaries as I do in Merton, I suspect Wimbledon would have stayed Conservative in 1997 with Merton and Morden going Labour in 2015. Two existing wards were split between the predecessor districts which are Abbey(all the area to the authority of Merton High Street) and Dundonald(basically The Apostles and the west of the ward),

[londonseal80]

Oct 19, 2017 22:51:20 GMT martinwhelton said:

Intrestiing to read predicted notional for both Mitcham along with Merton and Morden. Knowing the boundaries as I do in Merton, I suspect Wimbledon would have stayed Conservative in 1997 with Merton and Morden going Labour in 2015. Two existing wards were split between the predecessor districts which are Abbey(all the area to the authority of Merton High Street) and Dundonald(basically The Apostles and the west of the ward),

as does Raynes Park south of Coombs Lane. I can imagine Labour being ahead in that part of the ward.

[Pete Whitehead]

Oct 19, 2017 22:51:20 GMT martinwhelton said:

Intrestiing to read predicted notional for both Mitcham along with Merton and Morden. Knowing the boundaries as I do in Merton, I suspect Wimbledon would have stayed Conservative in 1997 with Merton and Morden going Labour in 2015. Two existing wards were split between the predecessor districts which are Abbey(all the area to the authority of Merton High Street) and Dundonald(basically The Apostles and the west of the ward),

The effects of this may be cancelled out as I assigned all of Abbey to Merton & Morden and all of Dundonald to Wimbledon (both wards clearly Labour in 1997). I admit I was surprised that Wimbledon still came out Labour in 1997 but then apart from Abbey the strongest Labour wards in the constituency were those from Wimbledon (Durnsford and Trinity as well as Dundonald) - I get the impression this area has trended away from Labour in the intervening 20 years relative to the Merton part of the constituency

[Pete Whitehead]

Mitcham MB

	1945		1950		1951		1955		1959
Con	12124	39.2%	18546	46.9%	19318	49.1%	18353	50.1%	19195	52.6%
Lab	18772	60.8%	19604	49.6%	20006	50.9%	18257	49.9%	17270	47.4%
Lib			1372	3.5%
	1964		1966		1970		1974		1974
Con	15310	44.8%	14835	43.6%	15146	49.0%	12617	35.7%	11016	34.4%
Lab	15002	43.9%	16966	49.8%	15316	49.6%	14978	42.4%	15399	48.1%
Lib	3362	9.8%	1816	5.3%			7349	20.8%	5268	16.5%
Oth	473	1.4%	421	1.2%	443	1.4%	349	1.0%	313	1.0%
	1979		1983		1987		1992		1997
Con	14054	42.6%	13367	42.3%	15497	47.7%	15735	45.5%	9355	29.3%
Lab	15248	46.2%	9252	29.3%	11634	35.8%	15163	43.9%	19670	61.5%
Lib/SDP/LD	3041	9.2%	8534	27.2%	5329	16.4%	3189	9.2%	2447	7.7%
Oth	680	2.1%	368	1.2%			464	1.3%	500	1.6%
	2001		2005		2010		2015		2017
Con	5809	22.2%	6182	22.4%	6465	21.2%	6215	20.0%	6818	20.4%
Lab	16379	62.5%	16395	59.3%	18740	61.4%	20579	66.2%	24371	73.1%
LD	2598	9.9%	3737	13.5%	3581	11.7%	938	3.0%	1014	3.0%
UKIP	320	1.2%			548	1.8%	2202	7.1%	541	1.6%
Grn	699	2.6%	1034	3.7%	295	1.0%	1026	3.3%	470	1.4%
BNP	420	1.6%			771	2.5%
Oth			284	1.0%	138	0.5%	150	0.5%	125	0.4%

[Pete Whitehead]

Carshalton UD

	1945		1950		1951		1955		1959
Con	11388	38.7%	14958	44.9%	15575	49.0%	14602	46.5%	14635	46.2%
Lab	15301	52.0%	15911	47.8%	16228	51.0%	14461	46.1%	13166	41.6%
Lib	2713	9.2%	2408	7.2%			2328	7.4%	3858	12.2%
	1964		1966		1970		1974		1974
Con	12578	41.5%	11812	39.2%	13275	45.7%	13163	42.3%	12138	43.1%
Lab	12292	40.6%	14356	47.6%	12946	44.6%	11592	37.2%	11648	41.4%
Lib	5435	17.9%	3985	13.2%	2806	9.7%	6369	20.5%	4352	15.5%
Oth
	1979		1983		1987		1992		1997
Con	14059	48.1%	13368	47.5%	14813	50.3%	13652	45.5%	8054	29.1%
Lab	10159	34.7%	5887	20.9%	6421	21.8%	6360	21.2%	8088	29.2%
Lib/SDP/LD	4447	15.2%	8416	29.9%	7747	26.3%	9520	31.7%	10334	37.3%
Oth	579	2.0%	443	1.6%	476	1.6%	503	1.7%	1199	4.4%
	2001		2005		2010		2015		2017
Con	6814	29.3%	8118	33.7%	8718	35.2%	7731	30.1%	10271	37.2%
Lab	5306	22.8%	5146	21.4%	2307	9.3%	3932	15.3%	5276	19.1%
LD	10529	45.2%	9641	40.1%	12216	49.3%	9114	35.5%	11398	41.3%
UKIP	305	1.3%	656	2.7%	710	2.9%	3925	15.3%
Grn	329	1.4%	495	2.1%	172	0.7%	859	3.3%	284	1.0%
Oth					645	2.6%	136	0.5%	352	1.3%

[londonseal80]

Oct 20, 2017 7:54:45 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Oct 19, 2017 22:51:20 GMT martinwhelton said:

Intrestiing to read predicted notional for both Mitcham along with Merton and Morden. Knowing the boundaries as I do in Merton, I suspect Wimbledon would have stayed Conservative in 1997 with Merton and Morden going Labour in 2015. Two existing wards were split between the predecessor districts which are Abbey(all the area to the authority of Merton High Street) and Dundonald(basically The Apostles and the west of the ward),

The effects of this may be cancelled out as I assigned all of Abbey to Merton & Morden and all of Dundonald to Wimbledon (both wards clearly Labour in 1997). I admit I was surprised that Wimbledon still came out Labour in 1997 but then apart from Abbey the strongest Labour wards in the constituency were those from Wimbledon (Durnsford and Trinity as well as Dundonald) - I get the impression this area has trended away from Labour in the intervening 20 years relative to the Merton part of the constituency

Agreed there as Wimbledon (itself) has trended away from Labour. North Morden has trended towards Labour, that coupled with Trinity though more Tory can still go Labour in a good year means Wimbledon is a semi-marginal conservative seat.