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Post by middleenglander on Sept 21, 2017 23:58:17 GMT
Chesterfield, Holmebrook - Liberal Democrat gain from Labour| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 510 | 50.0% | +21.5% | +22.1% | +6.6% | +6.7% | Labour | 435 | 42.6% | -8.5% | -8.8% | -14.1 | -14.1% | Conservative | 62 | 6.1% | -7.2% | -7.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Chesterfield Independent | 14 | 1.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Peace |
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| -7.2% | -7.3% |
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| Total votes | 1,021 |
| 52% | 53% | 76% | 77% |
Swing Labour to Liberal Democrat ~ 15% / 15½% since 2015 and ~ 10¼% since 2011 Council now 37 Labour, 9 Liberal Democrat, 1 UKIP, 1 Independent Oadby & Wigston, Oadby Uplands - Liberal Democrat gain from Labour| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Liberal Democrat | 435 | 39.0% | +1.2% | +3.3% | -2.4% | -2.4% | Labour | 384 | 34.5% | +2.2% | +1.1% | +9.9% | +8.7% | Conservative | 295 | 26.5% | -3.4% | -4.4% | -7.5% | -6.3% | Party | 1,114 |
| 40% | 41% | 60% | 63% |
Swing Liberal Democrat to Labour (top) ½% but Labour to Liberal Democrat 1% (average) since 2015 although Liberal Democrat to Labour 6% / 5.5% since 2011 Council now 20 Liberal Democrat, 5 Conservative, 1 Independent Waveney, Oulton Broad - Conservative hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Conservative | 527 | 50.2% | +8.8% | +11.5% | +7.1% | +7.4% | Labour | 357 | 34.0% | +5.4% | +4.8% | +2.8% | +3.6% | UKIP | 112 | 10.7% | -11.2% | -12.8% | +0.2% | -0.3% | Liberal Democrat | 54 | 5.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -0.9% | -1.2% | Green |
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| -8.1% | -8.7% | -9.1% | -9.6% | Total votes | 1,050 |
| 37% | 39% | 57% | 59% |
Swing Labour to Conservative 1¾% / 3¼% since 2015 and ~ 2% since 2011 Council now 27 Conservative, 17 Labour, 3 Independent, 1 Green
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 22, 2017 6:35:53 GMT
Wow. I didn't expect that!  New Liberal Democrat Councillor was previously a Councillor for the ward from 1986 through to 2011 Yes I had spotted that but had rather discounted it - we have had a number of examples lately - the independent in Mid Devon, for example, where a former councillor has tried to get back and has gone backwards. |
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 22, 2017 9:44:28 GMT
New Liberal Democrat Councillor was previously a Councillor for the ward from 1986 through to 2011 Yes I had spotted that but had rather discounted it - we have had a number of examples lately - the independent in Mid Devon, for example, where a former councillor has tried to get back and has gone backwards. It all depends on the quality of the respective candidates, the background to the by-election and the competence of the local authority. Much of this is difficult to assess without local knowledge. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 22, 2017 9:56:14 GMT
Oadby Uplands (Oadby & Wigston) result: LDEM: 39.0% (+1.2) LAB: 34.5% (+2.2) CON: 26.5% (-3.4) I'm not too downhearted about this one at least - little change on last time despite the difficult circumstances of the byelection for us. On this evidence Labour may well have a good chance of getting back on the council come 2019 - and who knows, maybe even forming a group this time  |
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 22, 2017 10:39:53 GMT
Yes I had spotted that but had rather discounted it - we have had a number of examples lately - the independent in Mid Devon, for example, where a former councillor has tried to get back and has gone backwards. It all depends on the quality of the respective candidates, the background to the by-election and the competence of the local authority. Much of this is difficult to assess without local knowledge. Quite. And the local knowledge has to be pretty specific , like living in the ward for some years with the person as your councillor. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 22, 2017 11:13:22 GMT
But there was also a clue in that Keith Falconer stood in the county council division that included Holmebrook in May 2017, and he lost to Labour only by 38% to 46%.
It is always worth checking the recent county results, even if the relationship of divisions to district wards isn't entirely clear.
In this case I could supplement by semi-local North Derbyshire knowledge of Chesterfield's social and political geography with electoral and census information that suggested Falconer may have done better than 38% in the Holmebrook section.
Then, of course - in the prediction competition - as usual, I lacked the guts to back my feeling that he might well win!
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2017 14:43:02 GMT
I used to travel through Uplands on bike to a lad i supported almost everyday. I even spent an hour on the bridlepath after falling from my bike. It's a very nice area. This is a pretty decent result for Labour even if they didn't hold the seat.
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 22, 2017 15:03:58 GMT
But there was also a clue in that Keith Falconer stood in the county council division that included Holmebrook in May 2017, and he lost to Labour only by 38% to 46%. It is always worth checking the recent county results, even if the relationship of divisions to district wards isn't entirely clear. In this case I could supplement by semi-local North Derbyshire knowledge of Chesterfield's social and political geography with electoral and census information that suggested Falconer may have done better than 38% in the Holmebrook section. Then, of course - in the prediction competition - as usual, I lacked the guts to back my feeling that he might well win! Yes, but on 4th May 2017 Labour were at least 10% lower in the opinion polls than now (the first poll that gave them more than 31% was Opinium on 12/5/17), while the Lib Dems were about 2% above their current position. I may be wrong, but I think Holmebrook is the first local by-election to show a swing from Labour to Lib Dem since the General Election, something that was commonplace between 23rd June 2016 and April 2017. In fact I cannot remember any examples of the Lib Dems gaining significantly from the Tories either, and they have been failing to make progress in seats where they would have been nailed on favourites in March 2017.... This does not mean anything much for national politics of course, it just means people are starting to return to voting on local issues on local elections, instead of fighting other battles... Which will be relief for the Lib Dems who were facing a potentially very bad day in May 2018 based on recent results... |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Sept 22, 2017 16:45:00 GMT
Wow. I didn't expect that! Lib Dem conference bounce? They speak of little else in Chesterfield. (I've barely noticed Conference this year. Doubt it's had much impact around the crooked spire.) |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Sept 22, 2017 16:47:23 GMT
Wow. I didn't expect that! Mark S might have been the only one to predict a Lib Dem gain! |
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 22, 2017 16:48:23 GMT
Lib Dem conference bounce? They speak of little else in Chesterfield. (I've barely noticed Conference this year. Doubt it's had much impact around the crooked spire.) so possibly the lack of notice helped... Might have inspired (see what i did there?) the troops though.. |
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 22, 2017 18:57:14 GMT
Wow. I didn't expect that! Mark S might have been the only one to predict a Lib Dem gain! Mark had actually been quite cautious in recent months in predicting Lib Dem success, I too was getting pretty cautious after a number of poor Lib Dem results recently and although I was forecasting the gain in Oadby, and though I could see a real chance that we could get Chesterfield as well and so the double gain, I didn't have the courage to go that far! I think I might well have gone for Chesterfield if it hadn't been on the same day as Oadby  |
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