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Post by president1 on Aug 17, 2017 23:37:35 GMT
Park (Peterborough) result:
LAB: 49.6% (-0.7)
CON: 39.8% (+4.5)
UKIP: 5.1% (-2.9)
LDEM: 3.2% (+0.9)
GRN: 2.4% (-1.8)
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 17, 2017 23:39:10 GMT
Peterborough Park Ward:
Carolyn Anne English (Green Party) 83
Ian Edward Hardman (LD) 109
Arfan Khan (Conservative) 1375
Shaz Nawaz (Labour) 1713
Graham John Whitehead (UKIP) 176
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 18, 2017 0:24:02 GMT
Interesting that a lot of UKIP votes seem to be switching to Lib Dem at local level) (OK, I know, maybe they just were not voting...)
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 18, 2017 0:26:39 GMT
Aylesbury Vale, Riverside - Conservative hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | Conservative | 301 | 34.7% | +3.7% | +4.6% | Liberal Democrat | 286 | 32.9% | +17.4% | +16.1% | Labour | 210 | 24.2% | +6.5% | +4.5% | UKIP | 48 | 5.5% | -30.3% | -27.9% | Green | 23 | 2.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 868 |
| 27% | 30% |
Swing not particularly meaningful Council now 43 Conservative, 10 Liberal Democrat, 4 Independent, 2 Labour Aylesbury Vale, Southcourt - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | since 2014 B ^ | since 2011 "top" ^ | since 2011 "average" ^ | Liberal Democrat | 456 | 37.3% | +8.4% | +9.5% |
| -5.0% | +1.3% | +2.3% | Conservative | 386 | 31.5% | +9.6% | +7.3% |
| +20.5% | +11.1% | +11.7% | Labour | 270 | 22.1% | -0.5% | +0.6% |
| +4.8% | -7.4% | -8.8% | Green | 58 | 4.7% | -0.9% | -0.5% |
| +1.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 54 | 4.4% | -16.5% | -16.8% |
| -21.8% | -9.7% | -9.9% | Total votes | 1,224 |
| 46% | 52% |
| 121% | 82% | 90% |
^ slightly different boundaries Swing, more meaningful than Riverside, little change between Conservative and Liberal Democrat since 2015 - and, subject to boundary changes, Liberal Democrat to Conservative since 2014 by-election (10% +) and 2011 (~ 5%) Council now 43 Conservative, 10 Liberal Democrat, 4 Independent, 2 Labour Forest Heath, St Mary's - Conservative hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 338 | 50.1% | +10.7% | +5.0% | +20.7% | +22.5% | Labour | 276 | 40.9% | +8.8% | +12.4% | +15.2% | +17.2% | Green | 60 | 8.9% | From nowhere | From nowhere | From nowhere | From nowhere | UKIP |
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| -28.4% | -26.3% | -20.3% | -22.0% | Independent |
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| -24.6% | -26.7% | Total votes | 674 |
| 30% | 36% | 37% | 40% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~1% (top candidate) since 2015 and ~2¾% since 2011 but Conservative to Labour ~3¾% (average) since 2015 - top Labour candidate in 2015 was also by-election candidate Council now 20 Conservative, 4 West Suffolk Independent, 3 UKIP Peterborough, Park - Labour hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2016 share | since 2016 "top" | since 2016 "average" | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | | Labour | 1,713 | 49.6% | +9.4% | +9.8% | -0.7% | +3.9% | +6.2% | Conservative | 1,375 | 39.8% | +1.4% | +2.2% | +4.5% | +1.3% | -11.9% | UKIP | 176 | 5.1% | -3.5% | -4.0% | -2.9% | -4.1% | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 109 | 3.2% | -0.9% | -1.1% | +0.9% | +0.8% | from nowhere | Green | 83 | 2.4% | -6.4% | -6.9% | -1.8% | -1.5% | +0.1% | TUSC |
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| -0.4% |
| Total votes | 3,456 |
| 86% | 91% | 85% | 112% | 117% |
Swing Conservative to Labour ~ 4% since 2016, ~ 1¼% since 2014 and ~ 9% since 2012 but Labour to Conservative ~ 2½% since 2014
- Conservative elected in 2012 retained seat in 2016
Council now 29 Conservative, 15 Labour, 7 Liberal Democrat, 3 Liberal, 3 Werrington First, 2 UKIP, 1 Vacant
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 18, 2017 10:29:37 GMT
St Mary's District v Town CouncilParty | District | Town | Difference | Conservative | 338 | 320 | -18 | Labour | 276 | 268 | -8 | Green | 60 | 82 | +22 | Total | 674 | 670 | -4 |
| Party | District | Town | Difference | Liberal Democrat | 456 | 478 | +22 | Conservative | 386 | 363 | -23 | Labour | 270 | 283 | +13 | Green | 58 | 55 | -3 | UKIP | 54 | 47 | -7 | Total | 1,224 | 1,226 | +2 |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 18, 2017 10:54:31 GMT
Park (Peterborough) result: LAB: 49.6% (-0.7) CON: 39.8% (+4.5) UKIP: 5.1% (-2.9) LDEM: 3.2% (+0.9) GRN: 2.4% (-1.8) Those are the changes since 2015, I would have thought last year was more relevant (especially since it was an all out election) I thought Britain Elects had got out of this bad habit, it seems not. |
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Post by Zardoz on Aug 18, 2017 12:16:32 GMT
Interesting that a lot of UKIP votes seem to be switching to Lib Dem at local level) (OK, I know, maybe they just were not voting...) As you know, Andrew, net changes cover up all sorts of switches between parties - particularly on a low turnout. However, there could be something in what you suggest. In my area, in 2004, one half of the new ward had not had any Lib Dem activity for a long time and the BNP vote had moved up into second place. I have no doubt that, once we fought seriously, we got a lot of that vote. I base this on canvassing conversations and other more anecdotal evidence. It seems that most of the switchers were not really BNP supporters but were simply looking for a way to express their dissatisfaction with the incumbent Labour Councillors and, when we came on the scene, we gave them a better alternative and, unlike the BNP, we actually won! |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Aug 18, 2017 13:12:38 GMT
I was campaigning in the last council elections where UKIP's 500 votes appeared to go straight to the Lib Dems. Which I think is unlikely. Probably whats happening is UKIP are shoring up tge Tory vote while the Tories shed their votes to the Lib Dems
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 18, 2017 17:33:36 GMT
I was campaigning in the last council elections where UKIP's 500 votes appeared to go straight to the Lib Dems. Which I think is unlikely. Probably whats happening is UKIP are shoring up tge Tory vote while the Tories shed their votes to the Lib Dems A high proportion of people in a local election will vote for the Party that pays most attention to them.. But if there is an overriding issue like Brexit in their mind they will vote on the basis of that.. In local elections people are actually quite sensible in their voting and tend to go for who they think will be best local councillor.. In General Elections they tend to cast their votes in ways that make no difference to the result, which is a bit weird! |
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 19, 2017 18:50:49 GMT
St Mary's District v Town CouncilParty | District | Town | Difference | Conservative | 338 | 320 | -18 | Labour | 276 | 268 | -8 | Green | 60 | 82 | +22 | Total | 674 | 670 | -4 |
| Party | District | Town | Difference | Liberal Democrat | 456 | 478 | +22 | Conservative | 386 | 363 | -23 | Labour | 270 | 283 | +13 | Green | 58 | 55 | -3 | UKIP | 54 | 47 | -7 | Total | 1,224 | 1,226 | +2 |
I had posted the data re Southcourt on the Town council thread and made some comments, but had totally missed the fact that there was a similar phenomenon at St Mary/s. Actually I find it quite sad to see people voting on such strict party lines at the level of a town council election. I wonder if the fact there was a simultaneous district election encourages this? |
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Post by greenchristian on Aug 20, 2017 13:10:28 GMT
I was campaigning in the last council elections where UKIP's 500 votes appeared to go straight to the Lib Dems. Which I think is unlikely. Probably whats happening is UKIP are shoring up tge Tory vote while the Tories shed their votes to the Lib Dems A substantial chunk of the UKIP surge was them gaining what had previously been the Lib Dem generic protest vote. It's entirely plausible that, in some places, the Lib Dems are are regaining those voters - at least at the local level. Remember that individual voters often don't think in terms of the left-right scale those of us who are politically engaged use. In fact, a surprisingly large proportion of them know absolutely nothing at all about parties' national policies. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Aug 20, 2017 13:21:04 GMT
I was campaigning in the last council elections where UKIP's 500 votes appeared to go straight to the Lib Dems. Which I think is unlikely. Probably whats happening is UKIP are shoring up tge Tory vote while the Tories shed their votes to the Lib Dems A substantial chunk of the UKIP surge was them gaining what had previously been the Lib Dem generic protest vote. It's entirely plausible that, in some places, the Lib Dems are are regaining those voters - at least at the local level. Remember that individual voters often don't think in terms of the left-right scale those of us who are politically engaged use. In fact, a surprisingly large proportion of them know absolutely nothing at all about parties' national policies. I think both things are possible and I certainly agree that the movement of the Protest Vote is hard to correlate with ideological positions of parties. The other possibility in CC elections, given the relatively low turn out, is that UKIP voters may be staying home and ex-LDs (who stayed home during the coalition) turning out. I can't say I've noticed that happening, but it would be logical enough behaviour for supporters of both parties as a response to the activities of their national parties over that time-frame. |
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