Prediction Compeition for July 2017

[middleenglander]

There look to be 19 by-elections during July:
* 0 on 6 July,
* 7 on 13 July
* 9 on 20 July and
* 3 on 27 July

10 of the contests are for District Councils, 1 with annual elections last contested in 2016 and 9 with 4 yearly ones last held in 2015
- although 1 had a previous by-election in 2016 whilst another is a single member ward
5 are within Unitary Authorities with previous "all out" elections in 2015
- although 1 is both a single member ward and had a previous by-election in 2016
2 are in Metropolitan Boroughs, 1 having "all out" elections in 2016
1 is in a London Borough with the previous election in 2014 and
1 in Scotland where the previous election was only in May

Conservatives are defending 7 seats, 6 following the resignation of the previous candidate and 1 disqualification for non-attendance
Labour defend 6 seats, 5 following a resignation and 1 a death
Liberal Democrats defend 3 seats, 2 after a resignation and 1 a death, but with no candidate in one of these
Independents defend 3 seats, 2 after a death and 1 a resignation, but with no candidate in one of these

With nominations available for all 19 seats,
Conservatives contest 18, Labour 17, Liberal Democrats 16, SNP 1, Greens 7, UKIP 3, there are 8 Independents contesting 7 seats and 1 North East
- a total of 71 candidates.

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of the by-election.

[Deleted]

Moray
Elgin City North

Labour 35
SNP 27
Cons 20
Indy 18

Middlesbrough
Ayresome

Labour 44
Cons 30
LibDems 11
Greens 5

Middlesbrough
Park End & Breckfield

Labour 40
Indy 30
Cons 15
LibDems 9
Greens 6

North Warwickshire
Coleshill South

Cons 54
Labour 46

South Oxfordshire
Didcot South

Labour 48
Cons 45
LibDems 7

South Oxfordshire
Didcot West

Cons 47
Labour 40
LibDems 13

Three Rivers
Chorleywood South & Maple Cross

LibDems 46
Cons 38
Labour 10
UKIP 4
Greens 2

My first entry for months so probably lots of faults,some interesting Labour/Conservative marginal wards Coleshill,Didcot South could come down to a GOTV operation, UKIP again notable for their absence just 1 candidate despite polling respectable scores last time.

[marksenior]

Moray Con 30 SNP 27 Lab 26 Ind 17
Middlesbrough Ayresome Lab 58 Con 24 LD 11 Green 7
Middlesbrough Park End Lab 40 Ind 38 Con 10 LD 7 Green 5
North Warwks Lab 52 Con 48
S Oxon Didcot South Lab 48 Con 41 LD 11
S Oxon Dicot West Con 44 Lab 41 LD 15
Three Rivers LD 47 Con 34 Lab 11 Green 6 UKIP 2

[greenhert]

Moray UA, Elgin City North (1st preference votes): Conservative 33, Labour 25, SNP 25, Independent 17. Conservative gain from Independent, stage 3.
Middlesbrough UA, Ayresome: Labour 59, Conservative 27, Liberal Democrats 9, Green 5.
Middlesbrough UA, Park End: Independent 42, Labour 39, Conservative 11, Liberal Democrats 5, Green 3.
North Warwickshire DC, Coleshill South: Labour 51, Conservative 49. Labour gain from Conservative.
South Oxfordshire DC, Didcot South: Labour 45, Conservative 43, Liberal Democrats 12.
South Oxfordshire DC, Didcot West: Conservative 42, Labour 40, Liberal Democrats 18.
Three Rivers DC, Chorleywood South & Maple Cross: Liberal Democrats 48, Conservative 33, Labour 12, Green 4, UKIP 3.

[Robert Waller]

Moray Con 41 SNP 39 Lab 18 Ind 2
Middlesbrough Ayresome Lab 78 Con 10 LD 10 Green 2
Middlesbrough Park End Lab 50 Ind 42 Con 3 LD 3 Green 2
North Warwks Lab 45 Con 55
S Oxon Didcot South Lab 50 Con 40 LD 10
S Oxon Dicot West Con 47 Lab 43 LD 10
Three Rivers LD 55 Con 26 Lab 13 Green 3 UKIP 3

[lancastrian]

Moray: SNP 39 Con 36 Lab 21 Ind 4
Middlesbrough Ayresome: Lab 67 Con 21 LD 8 Green 4
Middlesbrough Park End: Lab 44 Ind 43 Con 6 LD 4 Green 3
North Warwickshire: Con 52 Lab 48
South Oxfordshire Didcot South: Lab 52 Con 37 LD 11
South Oxfordshire Didcot West: Lab 49 Con 40 LD 11
Three Rivers: LD 53 Con 23 Lab 18 Green 3 UKIP 3

[cherrycoffin]

Gonna give this a go and see how it goes

Moray: CON 38 SNP 35 LAB 23 IND 4
Middlesbrough Ayresome: LAB 61 CON 23 LD 12 GRE 4
Middlesbrough Park End: LAB 47 IND 40 CON 7 LD 5 GRE 1
North Warwickshire: CON 51 LAB 49
South Oxfordshire Didcot South: LAB 54 CON 30 LD 16
South Oxfordshire Didcot West: LAB 45 CON 43 LD 12
Three Rivers: LD 54 CON 21 LAB 19 GRE 5 UKIP 2

[Davıd Boothroyd]

MORAY Elgin City North: C 45, SNP 39, Lab 14, Ind 2 (Conservative to win on transfers)
MIDDLESBROUGH Ayresome: Lab 61, C 21, L Dem 10, GP 8
MIDDLESBROUGH Park End and Breckfield: Ind 43, Lab 34, C 14, L Dem 6, GP 4
NORTH WARWICKSHIRE Coleshill South: C 58, Lab 42
SOUTH OXFORDSHIRE Didcot South: Lab 46, C 38, L Dem 16
SOUTH OXFORDSHIRE Didcot West: C 41, Lab 39, L Dem 20
THREE RIVERS Chorleywood South and Maple Cross: L Dem 60, C 21, Lab 10, GP 5, UKIP 4

[yellowperil]

Moray,Elgin City N:Con 33,SNP 30,Lab 25, Ind 12 (Con to win overall)
Middlesbrough,Ayresome: Lab 61,Con 25,Green 9, LD 5
Middlesbrough, Park End &B:Ind 38,Lab 35,Con 15, LD 6, Green 6
North Warks,Coleshill S: Lab 53,Con 47
South Oxon,Didcot S:Lab 43,Con 38,LD 19
South Oxon, Didcot W: Con 42,Lab 39, LD 19
Three Rivers, Chorleywood S & MC: LD 47, Con 30,Lab 15, Green 4, UKIP 4.

[clyde1998]

I'll just do the Moray ward for now:

Elgin City North: Con - 35%; SNP - 32%; Lab - 23%; Ind - 10%
Conservative win after transfers

[hempie]

Moray, Elgin City North: Con 44, SNP 36, Lab 15, Ind 5 (Con to win on transfers)
Middlesbrough, Ayresome: Lab 64, Con 22, LD 9, Green 5
Middlesbrough, Park End and Breckfield: Ind 40, Lab 39, Con 11, LD 7, Green 3
North Warwickshire, Coleshill South: Con 51, Lab 49
South Oxfordshire, Didcot South: Lab 47, Con 36, LD 17
South Oxfordshire, Didcot West: Con 45, Lab 40, LD 15
Three Rivers, Chorleywood South and Maple Cross: LD 62, Con 20, Lab 12, UKIP 4, Green 2

[yellowperil]

Welcome to the new arrivals in tiger76, cherrycoffin and clyde1998 - good luck with your predicting (though clyde seems to avoided the mere English by -elections -hope he realises that puts him 600 points down to start with!) Good to see a new tranche of predictors, though- maybe you looked at the June results won so improbably by another relative newcomer, so the message may be out that if he can win, anybody can

[middleenglander]

9 full entries this week, tiger76 returning after an extended absence with cherrycoffin making a first appearance, whilst Clyde 1998 makes a cameo prediction for just the Moray by-election. Pete Whitehead has again failed to make any submission since the General Election.
tiger 76 gets 10 additional faults for adding to 90% in Middlesbrough, Ayresome whilst cherrycoffin and David Boothroyd each get 1 additional fault for adding to 101% in Three Rivers and Middlesbrough, Park End & Breckfield respectively.

Middlesbrough, Ayresome: 100% Labour hold with majority over Conservative ranging from 14% (tiger76) to 68% (Robert Waller)
Middlesbrough, Park End & Breckfield: 5 Labour gain from Independent with David Boothroyd, greenrobinhood, hempie & Yellow Peril Independent hold
Moray, Elgin City North: 8 (including Clyde 1998) Conservative ahead on first preferences, Lancastrian SNP ahead, tiger76 Labour ahead
North Warwickshire, Coleshill South: 6 Conservativehold, greenrobinhood, Mark Senior & Yellow Peril Labour gain
South Oxfordshire, Didcot South: 100% Labour hold with majority over Conservative ranging from 2% (greenrobinhood) to 24% (cherrycoffin)
South Oxfordshire, Didcot West: 7 Conservative hold with cherrycoffin and Lancastrian Labour gain
Three Rivers: Chorleywood South & Maple Cross: 100% Liberal Democrat hold with majority over Conservative ranging from 8% (tiger76) to 42% (hempie)

[clyde1998]

Jul 13, 2017 8:38:16 GMT yellowperil said:

(though clyde seems to avoided the mere English by -elections -hope he realises that puts him 600 points down to start with!)

I was going to do the English predictions later once I had a look at the wards in question, but I forgot to do it. 

I'll remember to do them next week. 

[Robert Waller]

I think David Boothroyd has had a superb week - awaiting official figures, but around 100 faults for seven contests by my rough count.
Well done.

Hempie clearly in second place.

[yellowperil]

oh dear then I must be in error on my own rough calculations as I had Hempie ahead by a nose - either way those two have had a very good week all round so well done. Will wait the official result with interest -I think you are in third place, Robert?

edit- yes I think I found an error in my calculation of Coleshill so I agree David will have it but a close run thing and a superb run by both after a so-so start in Middlesbrough!

[Robert Waller]

Well, I have no authority in this, and as you can tell from the quality of my predictions, not to be relied on!
Actually I thought you were in 3rd!

Let's wait for the Master.

[middleenglander]

First week:

Authority	Middlesbrough	Middlesbrough	Moray	North   Warwickshire	South    Oxfordshire	South    Oxfordshire	Three Rivers	Week 1	Week 1
Ward	Ayresome	Park End & Breckfield	Elgin City    North	Coleshill South	Didcot South	Didcot West	Chorleywood   South & Maple Cross	Faults	Position
cherrycoffin	26.6	34.4+10	14.4	18.2	21.6	10.9+10	31.6+1	178.8	6th
David Boothroyd	30.6	28.8+1	10.4	4.2	8.2	5.4	18.6	107.2	1st
greenrobinhood	19.9	29.7	41.6	22.2+10	16.2	2.3	31.4	173.4	5th
hempie	28.6	33.7	8.0	18.2	7.6	4.6	16.6	117.4	2nd
Lancastrian	30.6	29.0+10	10.8+10	16.2	18.2	18.9+10	28.6	182.4	7th
Mark Senior	27.9	37.7+10	43.6	24.2+10	18.2	4.6	33.4	209.7	8th
Robert Waller	52.6	37.0+10	6.7	10.2	20.2	14.6	18.6	170.1	4th
tiger76	33.9+10	53.7+10	63.6+10	12.2	26.2	8.6	35.4	263.7	9th
yellowperil	22.6	37.7	31.6	26.2+10	2.6	3.4	33.3	167.5	3rd
clyde1998			23.6
Total	273.5+10	321.9+50+1	230.7+23.6+20	151.9+30	139.0	73.4+20	247.8+1	1570.2

Objections please by noon Sunday.

There are 9 by-elections next week.  Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.

[yellowperil]

Now the master has indeed spoken further congratulations to David and Hempie and apologies to Robert for a double error in my quick approximations of the scores - a technique which clearlyI will have to refine.

[Deleted]

Eden Con 37 Indy 32 Labour 27 Green 4

Stockton on Tees Labour 40 Indy 25 North East Party 13 Cons 12 LibDems 10

Knowsley Labour 72 LibDems 18 Greens 10

Staffordshire Moorlands Cons 45 Labour 27 Indy 22 LibDems 6

Rutland (Ketton) Cons 55 LibDems 45

Rutland (Whissendine) Cons 46 LibDems 30 Indy (Arnold) 16 Indy (Lammin) 8

Merton Labour 51 Cons 23 LibDems 13 Greens 8 UKIP 5

Wealden Cons 54 Labour 29 LibDems 17

Shepway Cons 56 Labour 20 LibDems 17 Indy 7