Austrian Parliamentary Election

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 15, 2017 16:59:26 GMT Andrew_S said:

Looks like Green voters choosing the Social Democrats this time in an effort to keep the latter in second place.

I have never understood, why these well-informed left students/teachers/... haven't been aware, that GREENS and Pilz needed their votes urgently, while SPÖ in second place will make SPÖ&FPÖ possible.

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 15, 2017 17:28:55 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Oct 15, 2017 16:59:26 GMT Andrew_S said:

Looks like Green voters choosing the Social Democrats this time in an effort to keep the latter in second place.

I have never understood, why these well-informed left students/teachers/... haven't been aware, that GREENS and Pilz needed their votes urgently, while SPÖ in second place will make SPÖ&FPÖ possible.

...and FPÖ in third place helps FPÖ paradoxically in the negotiations, FPÖ&SPÖ would have been impossible.

[Georg Ebner]

SPÖ gained mostly in the West (a longly observed trend), FPÖ gained very strongly in Carinthia (of course ... [2013 FPÖ was damaged by several scandals of the regional FPÖ-government]) and strongly in LowerAustria (not necessarily expected, but the remote&industrial parts there have FPÖ-potential); the ÖVP in the rest (Vienna unknown).

[Andrew_S]

What percentage of votes have been counted so far?

[Georg Ebner]

As is obvious, SPÖ gained strongly (partly +15%) in GREEN-areas - InnerCities and WestAustria - and stagnated/lost everywhere else.

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 15, 2017 18:00:31 GMT Andrew_S said:

What percentage of votes have been counted so far?

~96%.
But the PostalVotes (890.000) will be counted tomorrow. (A stupid regulation, but the ElectoralReforms after last year's PresidentialElections came too late.)

[AdminSTB]

So before the postals we are looking at

ÖVP 62, SPÖ 52, FPÖ 51, NEOS 10, PILZ 8

[Devil Wincarnate]

In Innsbruck-Stadt, the Greens are down a whopping 17.2%.

In Leutasch in neighbouring Innsbruck-Land, the OeVP took 50.7% of the vote.  Has anyone spotted any others where a party took more than half the vote?

[AdminSTB]

Oct 15, 2017 18:39:29 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

In Innsbruck-Stadt, the Greens are down a whopping 17.2%.

In Leutasch in neighbouring Innsbruck-Land, the OeVP took 50.7% of the vote.  Has anyone spotted any others where a party took more than half the vote?

Loads of them if you go down to Geminde-Level.

Hinterhornbach is the highest at 83.3%

Votes cast were ÖVP 46, FPÖ 6 NEOS 2 and GRÜNE 1.

The biggest Green loss was in Wien 7. Neubau where they were down 21%.

This page is great fun.

[AdminSTB]

We are just waiting for Kufstein now.

[AdminSTB]

And it's in.

Provisional result without postals is here.

[mboy]

No chance of the postals boosting Green over the threshold? Or SPO over FPO?

[jamie]

Does anybody know of any comparable circumstance anywhere/time where a party holds the presidency but has nothing in the legislature?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Very nearly happened in Ireland in the 2016 general election.

[AdminSTB]

Oct 15, 2017 19:10:57 GMT mboy said:

No chance of the postals boosting Green over the threshold? Or SPO over FPO?

The latter is quite likely, the former is very unlikely.

[Deleted]

Oct 15, 2017 19:15:53 GMT jamie said:

Does anybody know of any comparable circumstance anywhere/time where a party holds the presidency but has nothing in the legislature?

The US?

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 15, 2017 18:39:29 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

In Innsbruck-Stadt, the Greens are down a whopping 17.2%.

In Leutasch in neighbouring Innsbruck-Land, the OeVP took 50.7% of the vote.  Has anyone spotted any others where a party took more than half the vote?

ÖVP received (but stagnated at) 49.9% in the whole district of Zwettl (recently their best one).

[Andrew_S]

There seems to be a bit of disagreement as to which party has come second:

"9.27 pm - Provisional final count gives victory to Kurz

All of the ballots handed in today have now been counted. Postal votes are still to be taken into consideration, with the final result to be announced once these have been counted on Thursday.

But the provision final count gives Sebastian Kurz's ÖVP a clear win, with 31.4 percent of the vote. The far-right FPÖ are in second in 27.4 percent, the SPÖ are third on 26.8 percent, while the Greens look like they have been thrown out of the parliament altogether, with just 3.3 percent of the vote.

It should be noted that postal voting is expected to make one significant change, pushing the SPÖ above the FPÖ."

www.thelocal.at/20171015/live-austria-goes-to-the-polls-with-whizz-kid-kurz-predicted-to-win

[Georg Ebner]

SORA, which delivered the prognosis for ORF, had conducted a poll (in English):

www.sora.at/fileadmin/downloads/wahlen/2017_aut-national-election_charts.pdf

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 15, 2017 19:55:19 GMT Andrew_S said:

There seems to be a bit of disagreement as to which party has come second:

"9.27 pm - Provisional final count gives victory to Kurz

All of the ballots handed in today have now been counted. Postal votes are still to be taken into consideration, with the final result to be announced once these have been counted on Thursday.

But the provision final count gives Sebastian Kurz's ÖVP a clear win, with 31.4 percent of the vote. The far-right FPÖ are in second in 27.4 percent, the SPÖ are third on 26.8 percent, while the Greens look like they have been thrown out of the parliament altogether, with just 3.3 percent of the vote.

It should be noted that postal voting is expected to make one significant change, pushing the SPÖ above the FPÖ."

www.thelocal.at/20171015/live-austria-goes-to-the-polls-with-whizz-kid-kurz-predicted-to-win

Traditionally FPÖ lost ~2% in PostalVoting and the GREENS gained roughly these ~2%. SPÖ did in the PresidentialElection 2016 better than ÖVP for the first time in history, but their changes won't be huge.
The PVs were exploding this year, so it's not entirely impossible, that people, who are more FPÖ-friendly, began to use this procedure, but it's not likely.