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Post by middleenglander on May 11, 2017 20:58:37 GMT
Two by-elections tonight, 11 May
Kings Lynn & West Norfolk BC, Fairstead - Labour defence
South Derbyshire DC, Woodville - Conservative defence
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on May 11, 2017 21:57:50 GMT
I recognise others are busy elsewhere, so just to provide some context for tonight's by-election results:
Fairstead (2015) - Lab 753/727, UKIP 599, Con 593/469
Woodville (2015) - Con 1443/1317/1236, Lab 1431/1239/1167, UKIP 1168/839/739, LD 337
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Post by Robert Waller on May 11, 2017 22:30:32 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 11, 2017 23:39:21 GMT
Sorry for missing tonight's elections, guys and ladies, truly slipped my mind completely. I had next week's to do over the weekend but this weeks didn't register for some reason, completely forgot. Apologies.
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on May 12, 2017 9:01:39 GMT
Labour Hold in Fairstead
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Post by marksenior on May 12, 2017 9:07:44 GMT
Fairstead
Lab 254 Con 189 UKIP 68 LD 66
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 12, 2017 9:08:34 GMT
KING'S LYNN AND WEST NORFOLK Fairstead
Gary Ian Howman (Labour Party) 254
Ronald Barry Mortimer (The Conservative Party Candidate) 189
Michael Stone (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 68
Rob Colwell (Liberal Democrats) 66
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,910
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Post by Tony Otim on May 12, 2017 9:57:21 GMT
The collapse in the UKIP vote doesn't seem to have helped the Tories much there. But I thought from reading all the constituency threads that all these UKIP voters are automatically going blue where UKIP aren't standing...
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Post by yellowperil on May 12, 2017 10:34:33 GMT
Could be a proximity to general election factor? Or is it something very local -the county division in which this ward lies went Tory the other day?
Certainly didn't help a Lib Dem revival here which some predictors had expected- rather bizarrely I thought in a ward where there had been very little LD activity in the past.
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Post by marksenior on May 12, 2017 10:36:12 GMT
Woodville result
Con 613 Lab 510 UKIP 118 LD 82
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,979
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Post by The Bishop on May 12, 2017 11:12:54 GMT
Again, little evidence of UKIP's decline disproportionately benefiting the Tories.
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Post by markgoodair on May 12, 2017 12:19:19 GMT
Woodville result Con 613 Lab 510 UKIP 118 LD 82 CON 46.3% LAB 38.5% UKIP 8.9% LIB 6.2% |
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Post by middleenglander on May 12, 2017 14:41:05 GMT
Kings Lynn & West Norfolk, Fairstead - Labour hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Labour | 254
| 44.0%
| +5.3%
| +4.4%
| -13.9%
| -13.6%
| Conservative | 189
| 32.8%
| +2.3%
| +4.4%
| -9.3%
| -9.7%
| UKIP | 68
| 11.8%
| -19.0%
| -20.2%
| from nowhere
| from nowhere
| Liberal Democrat | 66
| 11.4%
| from nowhere
| from nowhere
| from nowhere
| from nowhere
| Total | 577
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| 30%
| 31%
| 60%
| 61%
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Swing Conservative to Labour 1½% / 0% since 2015 but Labour to Conservative 2¼% / 2% since 2011 Council now 48 Conservative, 7 Labour, 6 assorted Independent, 1 Vacant South Derbyshire, Woodville - Conservative hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Conservative | 613
| 46.3%
| +13.4%
| +11.9%
| +0.2%
| +0.5%
| Labour | 510
| 38.5%
| +5.9%
| +5.4%
| -15.3%
| -15.6%
| UKIP | 118
| 8.9%
| -17.8%
| -14.8%
| from nowhere
| from nowhere
| Liberal Democrat | 82
| 6.2%
| -1.5%
| -2.5%
| from nowhere
| from nowhere
| Total | 1,323
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| 30%
| 34%
| 62%
| 67%
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Swing Labour to Conservative 3¾% / 3¼% since 2015 and 7¾% / 8% since 2011
Council now 24 Conservative, 12 Labour
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Post by johnloony on May 13, 2017 3:01:02 GMT
The collapse in the UKIP vote doesn't seem to have helped the Tories much there. But I thought from reading all the constituency threads that all these UKIP voters are automatically going blue where UKIP aren't standing... Again, little evidence of UKIP's decline disproportionately benefiting the Tories. In both cases, the reality is that vast numbers of voters of all parties stayed at home and didn't bother to vote in the by-elections. It is easy to be distracted by abstract concepts like swings and percentages, but when the turnout goes down a lot, there might be very little of people actually switching from one party to another. In the general election the turnout will be (approximately) similar to 2015, so big differentials in turnout wouldn't be a factor in the same way. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2017 8:01:06 GMT
Richmondshire
Reeth & ArkengarthdaleIndependent died “a “first rate councillor of true Independent tradition”. Conservative returned Unopposed2015 Ind 544, Green 116, Lab 56 2011 Ind 514, Con 70 2007 Independent Unopposed 2003 Independent Unopposed  LB Enfield
Enfield LockLabour resigned 2014 Lab 2,395/2,203/2,189, UKIP 829, Con 725/683/537, Green 443, BNP 296 2010 Lab 3,073/2,794/2,665, Con 1,939/1,859/1,754, LD 934, Green 577, UKIP 540, BNP 477 2006 Con 1,318/1,162/1,125, Lab 1,143/991/936, Chase Farm 893, LD 507, UKIP 485 2002 Con 1,555/1,446/1,385, Lab 1,256/1,204/1,200 Christine BELLAS (The Conservative Party Candidate) Elif ERBIL (Labour Party) Kate McGEEVOR (Green Party) Richard MORGAN-ASH (Liberal Democrats) Gary ROBENS (UK Independence Party (UKIP))  
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Post by carlton43 on May 13, 2017 8:11:10 GMT
What on earth happened at Enfield Lock? Some sort of political cleansing? The tight Conservative-Labour of the Noughties has turned into monolithic Labour domination. Why is that in such a very short time?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 13, 2017 9:01:57 GMT
Basically this ward was 38% White British and 26% Black in 2011. I don't have the 2001 census figures immediately to hand but you can count on it that they were massively different. And of course when you get to that kind of point there is a snowball effect so no doubt the Tottenhamification of the area has continued apace since 2011
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Post by yellowperil on May 13, 2017 14:05:47 GMT
Tottenhamification? Does that spur somebody on to greater effort?
Actually some Tory votes went to UKIP or BNP and may return to mother this time?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,979
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Post by The Bishop on May 15, 2017 9:36:15 GMT
Not just this page appears to have vanished, but the entire website that it was hosted on  |
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2017 10:07:04 GMT
Not just this page appears to have vanished, but the entire website that it was hosted on |
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