maxque
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Post by maxque on Sept 8, 2021 16:09:17 GMT
Feinstein along with Newsom are very much part of the San Francisco establishment. This means they exude the worst elitist elements of the Democratic Party without actually being particularly left wing even compared to politicians from other less blue states except on a few hot button cultural issues (gun rights, LGBT etc). She hardly has Joe Manchin or Kyrsten Sinema’s voting record though does she? A lot of the anger seemed to blow up because she hugged Lindsey Graham but as far as I can see she’s a reliable backer for the Democrat agenda pretty much all the time She broke with the left-wing of the party by being vocally pro-Iraq War and spending a lot of capital and time trying to make illegal to "disrespect" the American flag. Pretty much, she is an hawk on foreign affairs.
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Post by maxque on Sept 8, 2021 15:12:30 GMT
Although presumably O’Toole has a good chance of redeeming himself in the english debate since that is his first language? It seems only natural that Trudeau would come out top as a francophone Is Trudeau a Francophone? His mother was Margaret Sinclair, an anglophone.
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Post by maxque on Sept 5, 2021 14:02:03 GMT
Raj Saini, Liberal MP for Kitchener Centre, has quit over allegations of sexual misconduct. His name remains on the ballot. On the basis of the last election, it should be a target for the Greens, but the Conservatives will see this as a chance to regain the seat they lost in 2015. There was a constituency poll last week saying Liberals 30, NDP 25, Conservative 25 and Green 13, so NDP gain is also an option.
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Post by maxque on Sept 4, 2021 13:35:06 GMT
Ebbsfleet is a very strange place to have a bishop I believe that the suffragan bishopric is named for Ebbsfleet, Thanet rather than the rather odd new place. No idea whether that's for an historical reason, like there was a minster or large abbey there years ago. Richborough and Ebbsfleet (which are next to each other) is the supposed place where St. Augustine landed to convert England, according to Wikipedia.
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Post by maxque on Sept 4, 2021 13:08:05 GMT
Ebbsfleet is a very strange place to have a bishop Parishes that refuse bishops who ordinated women as priests have a flying bishop. There is currently 3 (Ebbsfleet for the west of the Province of Canterbury, Richborough for the east of the Province of Canterbury, and Beverley for the province of York). London has a special arrangement where they use a suffagan bishop for that (currently the Bishop of Fulham). There is another flying bishop, Maidstone, for congregations with a conservative view on men leading the household (and Conservative Evangelicals in general).
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Post by maxque on Sept 3, 2021 18:36:00 GMT
The French debate is tonight for those interested. Do we know how the leaders performed in the debate? Pundits are quite divided (especially on Blanchet and Singh), but it seems the consensus is that Trudeau did good and O'Toole did struggle.
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Post by maxque on Sept 2, 2021 15:36:40 GMT
After which Herrera Beutler could get some Democratic votes as the least worst option. But would Dems even bother to vote? I assume they will vote for the Senate race (Patty Murray will be up).
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Post by maxque on Aug 31, 2021 18:27:24 GMT
Eh? They are up to 10 points ahead in the polls now 10 seats up, not ten points up. they were 10 points up in Mainstreet polls a few days ago.
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Post by maxque on Aug 31, 2021 15:57:50 GMT
Not that likely, given Liberals finished 2nd in front of Conservatives last time. I feel Liberal gain is the most likely outcome, followed by Tory gain (and finally Bloc hold). NDP gain is a remote possibility, if they have a very good campaign (the winner could easily win with 25%). From what I've read, the Tories were expected to win it last time because they selected the mayor (or previous mayor) of the area, and he's running again this time. Oh, I know, he is a star candidate (and also remotely related to me), but I don't see that helping them more this time (it's not a Tory seat, they only came close because of him) as his effect is already in the results of 2019. The Bloc incumbent is retiring, their new candidate is an ethicist that's often on TV, the Liberals are running the lead columnist of the local newspaper and the NDP is running a local author and book editor who is a Bosnian refugee.
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Post by maxque on Aug 31, 2021 14:34:31 GMT
Based on weak BQ performance and more French friendly Tory leader , how likely are the Tories to gain Trois-Rivières? Not that likely, given Liberals finished 2nd in front of Conservatives last time. I feel Liberal gain is the most likely outcome, followed by Tory gain (and finally Bloc hold). NDP gain is a remote possibility, if they have a very good campaign (the winner could easily win with 25%).
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Post by maxque on Aug 30, 2021 20:08:38 GMT
The Tories being the largest party in terms of seats would almost certainly lead to them returning to office to give the Liberals time to ditch Trudeau. But then the next general election would arrive long before October 2025. The only examples that spring to mind of the second party taking power with the support of the third are from Ontario in the late 1980s and from BC in 2017. IIRC it'd be pretty much unprecedented federally. I'm also intrigued by some projection models showing the BQ as remaining ahead of the NDP in the seat count. It would be a far from unfamiliar outcome but still an unwelcome one, and not a reasonable reflection of the popular vote. 1925. The Liberals (100) stayed in office despite having 15 less seats than the Conservatives (115), due to the support of the Progressives (22).
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Post by maxque on Aug 28, 2021 15:27:40 GMT
There is no postal voting in France. Only option to vote if you cannot is a procuration (made at the police station) that you give to someone else. Thanks for that. If Macron decides to rig the election by requiring the Pass Sanitaire I trust the British Government will impose sanctions against him. He doesn't have that power for 2 reasons. 1. The pass can only be required in places specified in the law; voting stations are NOT in it, as it was specified during the deliberations of the Senate. 2. The legal requirement expires mid-November, months before the election. So, Macron doesn't have that power, only the Legislature (including the Senate where the right, not his party, has a majority).
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Post by maxque on Aug 28, 2021 11:49:37 GMT
Will Macron require those voting in person to have the Pass Sanitaire? If so will that make any difference to the outcome; I assume postal voting is reasonably straightforward. There is no postal voting in France. Only option to vote if you cannot is a procuration (made at the police station) that you give to someone else.
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Post by maxque on Aug 27, 2021 1:21:52 GMT
Newport Graig John Jones (Conservatives): 610 John Harris (Labour): 534 Jeff Evans (Liberal Democrats): 71 for previous poster.
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Post by maxque on Aug 26, 2021 23:42:28 GMT
I don't really understand what he writes because almost all potential Conservative gains in Ontario will come from the Liberals, not other parties. In this case it is a zero sum game. If the Tories get +20 seats in Ontario the Liberals will probably be -20 seats. Liberals were having an healthy lead before the election was called, and there has been limited changes outside of Ontario, which mean they are still on the track to gain seats in BC, Edmonton/Calgary, Quebec (especially as the Bloc campaign isn't going very well) and Atlantic.
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Post by maxque on Aug 26, 2021 23:35:09 GMT
Will that be in Farron's potential new seat if the bce proposals go through? No - along with most of the rest of Carlisle city's rural territory, it's being moved from Penrith and the Border into the new Carlisle constituency. Tim Farron would be contesting Penrith and Kendal - the northernmost division in that would be the Labour held Alston Moor (which stands out on that map as the red swathe in the far east of the county). The seat proposed name seems to be Westmorland and Eden, through.
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Post by maxque on Aug 26, 2021 23:34:15 GMT
Will that be in Farron's potential new seat if the bce proposals go through? His proposed seat is pretty much Eden district + Kendal (and Sedbergh and Kirkby Lonsdale).
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Post by maxque on Aug 26, 2021 14:24:26 GMT
It's also cherry-picking, as other polls have the Liberals leading by 3 instead.
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Post by maxque on Aug 24, 2021 13:51:45 GMT
Another seat projection:- Interesting they’ve had the Greens as high as three, I don’t think even they expect more than two. The changes are compared to 2019 results.
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Post by maxque on Aug 22, 2021 13:50:20 GMT
It's only one pollster showing that, and not the best one (EKOS isn't bad, but it's very jumpy). Until the 19th EKOS had the Greens ahead of the PPC. Perhaps the polls are only any good if they show the desired figures? In any case according to wiki Mainstreet Research have shown the PPC ahead of the Greens everyday since the 15th, so that is two pollsters regardless of whether they are much good or not. EKOS tends to exagerate rises and drops. Now, Mainstreet is interesting, but I'll still wait to see it in any of Canada's two best pollsters (Leger or Nanos) before I agree it's a thing. Nanos, EKOS and Mainstreet are tracking polls, where they poll 300 to 500 persons a day and make a result every day by taking the mini-polls of the last 3 days (4 for EKOS). Due to each day small sample size, it's more likely to get an outlier, but it's weight is cut by 3 (4) and it will be processed out of the system in 3 days anyways. By the way, Nanos still see the PPC at 2.
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