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Post by curiousliberal on Dec 7, 2022 1:42:41 GMT
Can honestly say I am staggered that someone as clueless and inarticulate as Walker could be put forward as a candidate for one of the two major parties even in the era of Trump's Republican Party. There have undoubtedly been more extreme and possibly more unsuitable candidates- Don Bolduc and Roy Moore spring to mind - but I'd struggle to think of a less articulate and informed candidate. Alvin Greene? Not in a competitive race and a good deal of suspicion that he was controlled opposition. By the way, Jim DeMint delenda est.
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 9, 2022 16:43:43 GMT
He's been dead for about a month.
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Post by curiousliberal on Aug 17, 2022 8:48:04 GMT
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 14, 2021 14:19:00 GMT
Republicans reject political genius running for state legislature:
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 7, 2021 19:22:20 GMT
If you think Afghanistan is a major factor in the Democrats' current malaise, you are placing too much stock in pundits. It barely features in the news cycle anymore, and the withdrawal has a net positive impact for your average American. The pretext for staying in could easily be associated with the "wokeness" that is often seen as a major problem for the party. Nevertheless, Democratic leaders will parrot your position. They would much rather cash MIC checks and deflect blame onto random activists instead of taking responsibility for deeper-seated problems and endangering their own status in the party. Afghanistan did seem to be the initial trigger for the fall in Biden’s ratings though, no? Though I’d agree that at this point it is by no means the biggest factor. Sure - it caused a short-term dip because hawks have somewhat outsized institutional power in cable news. We learnt this in the Trump administration, but I would argue that - as it was then - stories like these tended to have a minor impact in the medium-to-long term, especially as they piled up and gave diminishing returns. At the time of the withdrawal, Biden had just exited the ~4-6 month approval rating honeymoon most presidents get, and infrastructure negotiations were starting to drag. I think plenty of voters ultimately disapproved of what Biden did in Afghanistan, and they will still diapprove by 2022 - it may, to a tiny extent, flip votes. However, foreign policy has usually been a low priority for voters, most voters turning against Biden also dislike him on far more important issues like cost of living/legislative failure, and the US public has - for a long time - been growing increasingly hostile towards military intervention. If the forever war had been continued until that election, Afghanistan would still be making headlines and would have had more salience, and the electoral impact would have been worse. One of the factors that fuelled Trump's rise amongst Obama voters was isolationism. The long-term health of the Democratic party required, at the very least, a stern reformation of the current mode of globalisation, and leaving Afghanistan was a fairly clear move. If the Afghan military hadn't folded like paper and there had been IS-style massacres, perhaps this could have been a disaster for Biden, but the messy withdrawal was a far cry from that scenario.
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 7, 2021 19:03:32 GMT
Who would have thought that overseeing the most abject military defeat since Vietnam would be seen so negatively? Maybe if they yell "racist" at switching voters, that will turn things around? If you think Afghanistan is a major factor in the Democrats' current malaise, you are placing too much stock in pundits. It barely features in the news cycle anymore, and the withdrawal has a net positive impact for your average American. The pretext for staying in could easily be associated with the "wokeness" that is often seen as a major problem for the party. Nevertheless, Democratic leaders will parrot your position. They would much rather cash MIC checks and deflect blame onto random activists instead of taking responsibility for deeper-seated problems and endangering their own status in the party.
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 3, 2021 1:00:25 GMT
The races for Lt Gov and Attorney General are almost completely inline with that for Governor. Really good chance right now that the GOP end the night with all three offices and control of the House of Delegates. In line, but TMac trails the LTGOV margins a bit, and the AG margins by a bit more. I think it's clear he dragged the rest of the ticket down. Not what I expected at the start of this year, but he ran an awful campaign based on #Resisters who'd all gone back to brunch.
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 3, 2021 0:58:04 GMT
I wouldn't call it a clean sweep until/unless they get the State House (in any case, the State Senate's not up until 2023), but that's about as close to a sure bet as can be without a call.
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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 25, 2021 10:31:59 GMT
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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 21, 2021 15:20:38 GMT
This is what happens when you think you’re centre-left Abe, but you’re really just a poundshop Blair.
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Post by curiousliberal on Jul 11, 2021 23:50:04 GMT
Why is it that the same people who think Murdoch is the Devil Incarnate also think that the pre-match genuflection, brought to you by Sky TV in association with Black Live Matters, is just fine and dandy? Pedantry demands I point out that Murdoch no longer owns a controlling stake in Sky. He sold that to the equally benevolent Comcast.
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Post by curiousliberal on Jun 7, 2021 22:21:37 GMT
At least it isn't going to be 52-48.
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Post by curiousliberal on Jun 7, 2021 20:32:04 GMT
Is there a reason that expats are voting so heavily Fujimori? Urban/rural (jetsetters are more likely to be of the former group) and wealth divides.
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Post by curiousliberal on Jun 6, 2021 16:28:23 GMT
To us now, but they all got plausible deniability and managed to present a united, more intimidating front to the less informed members of the US public. They reached for, and secured, a layer of insulation that should never have been within reach for a decision of that magnitude. Edit: I also dispute that it would have been perfectly clear. John Paul Stevens was a liberal Republican and could easily have swapped with Ginsburg or Breyer on an issue like this. Yes it was perfectly clear, because there were four who dissented (openly), which leaves five - a bare majority. Whether or not it was a per curiam would have had very little effect on whether people respected the decision or not, for obvious reasons. All it did was prevent the blame being pinned on one individual Justice. On the second ruling. On the first, it was 7-2. 'Preventing the blame being pinned on a justice' is allowing that justice (and by extension, every justice who could have been perceived as a tipping point) to avoid accountability to a degree that should not have been possible for a decision of that magnitude, regardless of whether it was correct. I believe this was part of what shifted the US further towards being a system run by judicial overlords instead of legislators. The bottom line is that if the court thought it couldn't handle the heat of a non-per curiam ruling of that sort, it should have ordered a full recount and thereby shifted the institutional burden onto a more democratic process.
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Post by curiousliberal on Jun 6, 2021 15:16:10 GMT
It absolutely isn't. Power without accountability is incredibly dangerous, and that they wanted to avoid accountability to begin with colours their decision. ?? The composition of the majority was perfectly clear from who dissented. To us now, but they all got plausible deniability and managed to present a united, more intimidating front to the less informed members of the US public. They reached for, and secured, a layer of insulation that should never have been within reach for a decision of that magnitude. Edit: I also dispute that it would have been perfectly clear. John Paul Stevens was a liberal Republican and could easily have swapped with Ginsburg or Breyer on an issue like this.
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Post by curiousliberal on Jun 6, 2021 15:08:42 GMT
*Actually it was a per curiam decision but that's beside the point. It absolutely isn't. Power without accountability is incredibly dangerous, and that they wanted to avoid accountability to begin with colours their decision. I have limited sympathy for Gore - he tried to play silly buggers by asking for partial recounts. That doesn't make what happened in FL fair, and the voters deserved a statewide recount.
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Post by curiousliberal on May 14, 2021 19:09:31 GMT
The NHS budget is up, in real terms. In every year of Tory governments. If the NHS is still failing timmullen1 it is for one of two reasons. Either the delivery system is flawed. Or it does not matter how much money you plough in, if there is no limit on demand, supply can never meet it. BTW both are true. A rising limit is not the same thing as the absence of a limit.
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Post by curiousliberal on May 12, 2021 10:30:57 GMT
SV should limit the spoiler effect, to the extent that it even exists.
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Post by curiousliberal on May 10, 2021 19:08:07 GMT
Galloway's probably dead on arrival, but I really wouldn't be surprised by the Asian community swinging Conservative (in terms of margin, at least), so long as the Conservatives avoid abnormal levels of race-baiting.
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Post by curiousliberal on May 9, 2021 19:37:04 GMT
Someone is going to dig up Jo Cox's grave again and start a really grim event of the culture war, and everyone will lose as a result. Even if all the parties avoid turning it into a battleground, some hack in the press will raise it for clickbait's sake.
I already feel sorry for the constituents.
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