Post by chrisscot1988 on Apr 27, 2017 8:57:39 GMT
Your first paragraph doesn't really make sense. He will drive up the local Nat vote precisely because of the twitter bubble in which those people operate. The East Ren SNP branch isn't all that active on the ground at the moment, particularly as they now have no MSP representation. Suspect that will change as they will want to get up in Blair's face and they will energise their support as a result. But his name means nothing to most of the public, his selection won't have registered with the grannies in Giffnock.
Secondly, the Tories are making the point that a vote for Labour is a vote to make Corbyn PM, so if the local party thinks Corbyn shouldn't be PM, why should you vote for them. Same tactic they are using against the Labour 'mods' particularly in the North of England where candidates are trying to distance themselves from Corbyn.
I think Labour realistically have to go all out here to show they are at least trying in Scotland, but next Thursday will be a real sucker punch, with the Tories likely to take most seats on the Council (and East Ren turnout tends to be good for locals). It's questionable whether the gap between those results (and all the negative press that will result) and the General is enough for them to pick back up some support.
But yes, it definitely makes the seat more interesting than if Labour had picked someone else, but there's already been a massive unwinding of the pro-Labour tactical vote here, and Blair is no Jim or Ken. I don't think a short campaign gives him time to reverse that sufficiently, though I understand he's not working at the moment so will be at this full time.
All the parties returns will be showing this is a clear Tory v SNP fight, whether Blair can use his media contacts to shape the narrative here quickly enough to change minds on the doors will be key I think. Will be interesting to see if the Tories go for some high profile visits here early in the campaign.
I suspect the SNP are pretty happy with this nomination, as it turns the early campaign into a Labour v Tory bunfight.
I wonder if Ashcroft will do some marginal polling. This one would be fascinating.
My own view is that this has moved from Tory gain to a very narrow SNP hold, with Labour still in third, but not as far behind as they might have otherwise been. I would also suggest that Murray is now in more danger in Edinburgh South than he was before.
I would definitely say that this is probably the most interesting Scottish seat in play now, even if the personalities involved aren't as dramatic as in Perth & Perthshire North.