Post by conservativeestimate on Jun 6, 2017 8:25:50 GMT
Let's have a look.
The Conservatives will almost certainly carry Penistone East on June 8th, and may also top the poll in Penistone West. They would then need substantial votes in Dodworth ward (Barnsley) and Stocksbridge & Upper Don (Sheffield). The latter had a particularly high UKIP vote in 2015, it depends how much of the overall UKIP vote will go the Conservatives. This is a non-metropolitan seat with sizeable UKIP and Leave votes. Labour are firm favourites but it's still a seat to watch given how close it was in 2010 (relative to its history as a Labour fortress).
Post by conservativeestimate on Jun 6, 2017 16:16:09 GMT
It's hard to see the Conservatives getting over the line here purely because they have no base in the Sheffield half of the seat. They would need to top the poll in Stocksbridge & Upper Don ward to win the seat.