Pudsey Sept 2, 2017 23:51:36 GMT
Post by jigger on Sept 2, 2017 23:51:36 GMT
Fair enough. I'll amend my previous post. Pudsey has evidently been trending towards both the Conservatives and Labour, even more than the country has been.
I do think that the only way you can judge whether a constituency has got stronger for a particular party is through vote share. After all, the matter which decides a majority is the performance of the non-winning parties and the winning party is not responsible for the performance of the non-winning parties
And just as an addendum before bedtime:
It certainly did seem that the Conservatives were struggling in Pudsey in the 2000s (the Conservatives did remarkably poorly in Pudsey in 2005 in particular), but the Conservatives have since sharply recovered in the seat. I do think that the fact that the Conservatives got their highest vote share in Pudsey since 1970 is definitive of the point that Pudsey is certainly not trending away from the Conservatives (irrespective of whether it may be trending Labour). Of course, it is possible for a constituency to be trending Labour and Conservative at the same time.
Lastly, all this discussion about seats trending to the Conservatives or seats trending to Labour ignores the fact that Pudsey may be one of the very many constituencies in England which simply reflects the national mood. We rarely discuss those seats because they are not as exciting as the ones which show rapid changes in political support but it is those seats which decide whether we have a Conservative government or a Labour government. In many ways, seats which reflect the national mood are the most important seats of all.