This is a Labour Tier 4 seat (14.9 25.0) and thus worth closer examination. The drivers are UKIP and LDs. In 2015 one surged and the other collapsed. If we forecast at least a partial UKIP collapse (mainly to the Conservatives who had had a poll fall in 2015) and a LD improvement mainly from Labour, there could be a large differential hit to Labour but probably not enough for them to lose it. This is the demographic where there might be quite a lot of Labour-Conservative churn?
The Conservatives came close to gaining this seat in 83, but Don Valley is now the more likely Doncaster seat to go Blue. The Independent candidate is causing rather a lot of controversy, parking his 'battle bus' wherever he damned likes and moaning on social media when the people of Doncaster had the audacity to reject him at the ballot box at the mayoral election.
Labour - 51 Conservative - 35 Lib Dem - 6 Eddie Todd - 4 Yorkshire Party - 4
Post by casualobserver on Jun 7, 2017 10:12:25 GMT
Conservative campaigners on the ground in DC are quietly optimistic. Even Labour's strongest wards are showing no hostility to the Conservative message, much to the Conservatives' surprise. This would take a 14.2% Lab-Con swing to fall to the Tories, but even without a UKIP candidate (UKIP polled 9747 votes in 2015 - 24.1%) I just don't see that happening. Swing to the Conservatives here may well be significantly higher than the national average.
Post by David Boothroyd on Feb 18, 2018 1:05:06 GMT
The Doncaster seat was Conservative held from 1951-1964 (and by a senior Conservative as well - he was in the Cabinet when he lost his seat).
Like other northern railway towns, it was that little bit more prosperous than it would otherwise have been. Doncaster is not so dependent on heavy industry as might be imagined, and it wasn't a mining seat - not even in the top 50 in the 1966 sample census.
By 2017, the two ex-mining seats of Don Valley and Doncaster North have seen new industries come in, old miners die off, and some private housing development - so their Labour vote is slowly ebbing.
Socialism makes war upon a system, not upon a class