I see Mr. Harman getting put out to pasture here and UKIP votes go mostly to the Tories and the LibDems don't have a three-figure vote total again. Conservative gain, majority 1,000-2,000.
I expect a low turnout so to get a majority of 1,000 Tories would need a swing of about 9%. Taking into account local factors I think Jack will just hold on but, not taking anything for granted!
I suspect the Tory vote here has a natural ceiling that it will be very hard to break through, they will need a lot of Kippers to swap to them and a much lower turnout in the hardcore Labour areas in order to win. Not impossible but difficult.
Post by No Offence Alan on Apr 24, 2017 9:55:13 GMT
It is Cllr Robert Alden again for the Tories here.
"Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen [pounds] nineteen [shillings] and six [pence], result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery."