Newcastle-under-Lyme Jun 10, 2017 23:06:58 GMT
Post by Richard Allen on Jun 10, 2017 23:06:58 GMT
We really can't tell how the UKIP vote 'broke' either here or anywhere else.
One of the things about the TV (and subsequent) coverage that has somewhat annoyed me is the failure to understand the significance of
a) the concept of 'churn'
b) the increase in turnout in most seats
What could have been happening is that more UKIP did indeed switch to the Conservatives, but new voters were predominantly Labour.
(I don't deny that many UKIPpers will have switched to Labour, I've been arguing UKIP voters are not all right wing Conservatives for years)
There will have been some switching directly from Conservative to Labour, especially among Remain voters. (And vice versa)
Some UKIP voters will not have turned out this time.
It's much more complex than just looking at the overall changes in share of the vote.
I agree with all of that but I will add that the UKIP vote here was Labour inclined to a far greater degree than the vast majority of other seats. A fair few people involved with UKIP locally were genuine left wingers and their campaigning reflected that. In fact Derrick Huckfield who won local elections at district and county level for UKIP had previously left the Labour Party due to its shift to the right during the Blair era.