Manchester Withington Mar 22, 2018 14:46:10 GMT
Post by froome on Mar 22, 2018 14:46:10 GMT
I think you're missing the point that demographic turnover is more significant than changes of individual behaviour over periods of time of this length particularly so in relatively mobile areas like the big cities.
If I were to stand in my old ward tomorrow (if it still existed) I'd get hammered. Not because the people who voted for me in the 90s and noughties have turned against me but because - by and large - many/most of them are no longer there! They've moved elsewhere or, sadly, gone to Electoral Division HE1, where polling day is always sunny and elections are conducted by STV.
Yes I agree that demographic changes are probably the most important factor, but I think my point is still valid. In somewhere like Manchester, the effect of the surge to the Lib Dems was to give those Tories somewhere they felt they could vote, and having made that break, the collapse in the Lib Dem vote then made voting Labour acceptable to some of those who said they wouldn't ever do it. Obviously at the same time, many wards will have changed significantly.